IPL 2014: Fantasy Guru - The play-off strategy

Virender Sehwag is highly inconsistent, thrills us for a while before getting out. I took a chance with him for the first time in the tournament in their final league match against Delhi Daredevils, and, if he can’t provide me returns in that fixture, I am not picking him again. Even if he comes off, I wouldn’t be bothered, as that is too big a leap of faith to have him and hope for points.

Akshar Patel bowls 4 overs day in, day out and sometimes at the death, too. Karanveer Singh has got the potential. Both of them won’t be getting enough assistance, though. Rishi Dhawan is a hit or miss. I expect Karanveer to be dropped in favour of Parvinder Awana, as the top 5 Knight Riders batsmen play spin better than they play pace. Trust Sanjay Bangar to get it right.

If you have got to pick any of the three, pick Rishi Dhawan for the first fixture. If there is a budget issue, go for Akshar, as he can bat.

All right then, what about Glenn Maxwell, the elephant in the room? The Knight Riders have nailed him twice already, and, to be frank, he looks shot, too. I am taking the risk to leave him out for their first fixture. I would have him against Chennai Super Kings or Mumbai Indians, though. I see what I did there.

Chennai Super Kings:

Praveen Kumar holds the key to get through the CSK top order

If Praveen Kumar plays, both the Super Kings’ openers are in a spot of bother. Both Brendon McCullum and Dwayne Smith can’t play Praveen on a deck that has swing on offer. You need not do much to understand this. Just watch their last encounter to know how fortunate does Dwayne need to be to escape Praveen. I am not sure who of the two will get past him, so I will get one of them in, as we now have excess of transfers. It would be Brendon, as he comes down the track and disturbs the length of the swing bowlers. Suresh Raina will be in the team either way.

If Praveen Kumar doesn’t play, I would get the Super Kings’ top 3 in, all of them. With Pragyan Ojha not in greatest forms and Harbhajan Singh turning the ball into the right handers and the bowlers, in general, handicapped by decks, it would be a run feast. Shreyas Gopal, the leggie, is the only threat to the openers.

I would be very surprised to see Brendon sitting out for David Hussey. However, if it happens, Faf du Plessis will play as an opener. Du Plessis is PK-proof. Du Plessis is quality, and Du Plessis will make his way into the team without a second thought. If he plays at 4, though, his impact will be severly cut down, and hence I will not have him.

None of the Super Kings’ bowlers are worth a spot, and that includes Ravindra Jadeja, too.

What about MS Dhoni? Big matches are made for big players, and he is known to promote himself on make or break situations in crunch matches. Will the Super Kings top 4 leave the match to come down to him? Only if Praveen plays. So, again, I will only have him if the Uttar Pradesh seamer plays. Else, I don’t see the match getting beyond the top 4.

Mumbai Indians:

Michael Hussey, given the touch he is in, would be my first pick. I have never been a fan of Lendl Simmons, and I don’t see him doing big damage today, too. Corey Anderson can bowl a couple of overs if Praveen doesn’t play, and, with the kind of wicket on offer and the position he plays at, I prefer him ahead of Simmons.

After his miserable first few matches, Corey was being compared to Richard Levi due to the Mumbai Indians’ connection, which is ludicrous to say the least. The Kiwi all-rounder is tighter than Levi can ever be, and he has time on his side, too. While he can’t yet be expected to play quality spinners, he keeps his shape while he goes for the shots on good batting decks.

He doesn’t succumb at the first sight of any particular type of bowling, either, like Levi does against left-arm spin. If Corey is under the right tutelage, he could grow on to become a very fine LOI player. He would be high on confidence today and has decent chances of coming off if he escapes Ravichandran Ashwin. I rate his counterpart James Neesham more than I do him, though.

Simmons has limitations. He is more a timer than a slogger and needs just an iota of pressure to throw his wicket away. His strike-rate and a below-par career record speak for themselves. There are barriers to both Simmons and Corey, and I opt to go with the one who can provide more points in the event of them firing.

Between Rohit Sharma and Kieron Pollard, I would get Rohit in, primarily because he bats ahead of Pollard. With Anderson and Ambati Rayudu in the team, the West Indian big hitter is most likely to face lesser than 25 deliveries. However, if Pollard, by chance, gets to face more, there is no stopping him.

I would also have Praveen Kumar in, and I guess, by now, you would know why I would do that. Quality swing bowling is very hard to negotiate in any format of the game. Harbhajan Singh has been in fine touch, but he can’t deliver when the pitches don’t support spin bowling. Shreyas Gopal and Jasprit Bumrah are worthy uncapped picks.