Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray: Who should I start in Week 18 Fantasy Football?

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray have often been borderline fantasy football quarterback options in most weeks of the 2023 NFL season. They have both finished among the top 12 weekly quarterbacks in almost exactly half of their games this season. This puts both of them in the QB1 range on many fantasy rosters for traditional one-quarterback league formats.

Their similar fantasy values may result in many fantasy managers debating which one to start in their Week 18 lineups. With the championship round of the 2023 fantasy football playoffs taking place this week and quarterbacks being the highest-scoring players, this potential decision could be crucial. The following breakdown can help.

Is Baker Mayfield a good fantasy pick in Week 18?

Baker Mayfield

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Baker Mayfield this year and gave him the difficult task of replacing Tom Brady. While there has been an understandable downgrade at quarterback, Mayfield has exceeded most expectations. He has the Buccaneers one win away from appearing in the NFL Playoffs this year and also ranks as the overall QB9 in fantasy football.

Mayfield has ranked as the weekly QB12 or better in exactly half of his 16 games this year with ten multi-touchdown performances. Four of those have come in his past four consecutive games, so he enters Week 18 in relatively strong form. During this stretch, he has totaled 11 touchdowns and finished as QB14 or better in all four.

Up next for Mayfield is a sneaky-difficult matchup against the Carolina Panthers. While they have arguably been the worst overall team in the NFL this season, they excel in defending the pass as one of their few strengths. This includes allowing the fewest overall points per game to fantasy football quarterbacks.

Is Kyler Murray a good fantasy pick in Week 18?

Kyler Murray

The Arizona Cardinals have been thrilled to have Kyler Murray back in their lineup, as he has provided a major boost to their offense. He has also helped them to win three of their past seven games since returning from injury. They had won just one of their first nine games without him, demonstrating his value to their team's success.

Murray has also proved once again to be a valuable fantasy football quarterback as well. He has finished among the top 13 players in his position in five of his seven games this year, ranking as the QB9 or better in three of them. He has done so with his trademark dynamic skillset, including the seventh-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks and averaging nearly two touchdowns per game.

Week 18 will provide Murray with a relatively favorable matchup against the Seattle Seahawks in his final game of the season. They are allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and Murray is coming off of a season-best QB4 finish last week.

Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray: Who should I start in Week 18 fantasy football?

Murray vs Mayfield

According to the Start/Sit Optimizer, Kyler Murray makes for a better quarterback option than Baker Mayfield in Week 18 fantasy football lineups. This valuable tool weighs every possible variable for any player in a given week to generate fantasy projections and lineup suggestions. In this particular scenario, it favors Murray for a higher output.

Despite Mayfield having a higher projected total for passing yards and an almost equivalent touchdown probability, Murray's rushing upside gives him the edge this week. He is expected to nearly quadruple Mayfield's rushing projections. This is one of the biggest reasons for Murray being the preferred Week 18 option, as well as having a much more favorable weekly matchup.