Biggest winners, losers, steals and reaches in the 2021 NFL Draft

# Biggest losers in the 2021 NFL Draft:

James Robinson and Melvin Gordon

Ever year we get reminded how replaceable the running back position is and how little teams value it when it comes to roster construction. We did surprisingly see three drafted within the first 35 picks actually. But then Trey Sermon was the only other one selected on day two (88th overall) and we saw some really good backs drafted in the late rounds – three of my top ten prospects at the position over about the final 50 picks most notably.

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That discrepancy just shows you how much the teams who did pick their RB up high believe in their guys and how important it was for them to upgrade/add talent to that position. The Steelers were first to grab one, when they invested their 24th overall pick in Alabama’s Najee Harris, to make him the clear workhorse in that offense, especially after letting James Conner walk in free agency, but the other two teams had their leading rushers coming back and weren’t necessarily looked at as landing spots for these top three backs.

First, the Jaguars made it back-to-back selections at the positions, when they surprised a lot of people by selecting Clemson’s Travis Etienne with their second day one pick (25th), pairing him up with fellow Tiger Trevor Lawrence. The reason I, among others, was scratching my head, is that James Robinson had a Rookie of the Year-level season in most years, as an undrafted free agent, who I had as a top-ten back last year.

Urban Meyer soon after made comments about how Etienne would be their third-down back, but I don’t see how you can select a running back in the first round, with the explosiveness he presents, and not at least have him share touches pretty much equally with your prior starter. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually traded up for North Carolina’s Javonte Williams, who I expected to go in that spot to Atlanta. I believe he pretty much immediately replaces Melvin Gordon as the starter, because he presents a similar type of physical runner, but now have more invested into him, even if the veteran will still get some work.

Los Angeles Rams

Every team gets better on draft weekend, unless they trade veterans for picks that don’t work out at all.

It’s just about how talent can you accumulate with your draft picks and how much you can improve your roster overall. The value of the players actually selected is always something subjective. But even if you look at consensus boards, you can differentiate between teams that generally pick prospects where or after they were expected to go and those who didn’t maximize ressources, while adding talent they like.

I have no problem with teams that believe in their evaluations and “trust their board” so to speak, when they are on the clock, but you still have to be aware of where these names would be probably picked and if you can accumulate extra capital.

The Rams only made one trade on draft weekend, in part because they already had given up some of their picks in the Jalen Ramsey and Jared Goff deals. And that’s the one I actually think was a solid move. They shipped the 88th overall pick to the division rival 49ers (Ohio State RB Trey Sermon), in exchange for two fourth-rounders, which turned out to be Texas A&M nose-tackle Bobby Brown (117th) and Central Arkansas cornerback Robert Rochell (130th).

They are two high-upside, athletic projects, who I don’t expect to contribute a lot early on in their rookie seasons. While I would have taken them a little later personally, their two prior selections are the ones I have a problem – a 149-pound receiver in Louisville’s Tutu Atwell. He dramatically slid down boards for most people after his official weight was announced, at 57th overall, and South Carolina linebacker Ernest Jones at 104th overall, when there were plenty of LBs I liked better.

UCF receiver Jacob Harris is an interesting name, who they could convert into that undersized H-back/tight-end they lost with Gerald Everett in free agency, but I don’t love any of the other picks they made on day three either. So I just don’t see any immediate impact-players necessarily, for a team that is ready to win now, after the Stafford trade.

First-round offensive line and safety prospects

In the first round of this year’s draft, we obviously had the five quarterbacks go, somewhat surprisingly two running backs and then three straight edge rushers to end the night, to double the total amount at that position. The two positions that didn’t receive a lot of sense on Thursday were offensive line and safety.

While I had a great weekend of betting on the draft, my biggest wager was “Over 6.5 Offensive Linemen selected in the first round” and we came two shy of crossing that mark, even though I had eight O-linemen go in my mock draft and nine within my top 41 overall prospects. And when you look at the individual players and where they were projected to go, as well as where I had them ranked myself, they all went later than expected – Penei Sewell could have easily gone fifth overall to Cincinnati - but went two spots later.

Rashawn Slater rarely made it out of the top ten, and he fell to the Chargers at 13, that’s where I had Christian Darrisaw penciled in for, but he went ten spots later. Landon Dickerson, Teven Jenkins, Liam Eichenberg, Samuel Cosmi and Dillon Radunz could have also easily gone in the first, but went a round later.

The one who actually was selected where he was projected to was USC’s Alijah Vera-Tucker going 14th, even though the Vikings let the Jets select in that spot instead, and obviously we had another Raiders first-round shocker, when they went with Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood three picks later. The depth at that position certainly hurt all those guys.

The safety class lacked many elite prospects, but for Trevon Moehrig to not even go in the first was surprising and there was a bunch of guys, who went way later than I valued them, due to apparent injuries or questionable measurements, like Jamar Johnson (Indiana) in the fifth round, Hamsah Nasirildeen (FSU) in the sixth, James Wiggins (Cincinnati) in the seventh and Ar’Darius Washington (TCU) even going freaking undrafted.

Cowboys veteran linebackers

It you looked through a hundred mock drafts, you probably saw the Cowboys going with Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II in at least 90 of them – , I even had them select him at 10th overall. Well, after seven straight offensive players to start things off, we saw consecutive corners go with the Panthers selecting South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn with the eight pick and then the Broncos snatching Surtain right after.

So when Jerry Jones and company were on the board, they had to look elsewhere and traded back two spots with their division rival Eagles, and get Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons – even if they claim he was their target all along. And then they came back early in the fourth round and doubled down at the position, although they offer very different skill-sets, with LSU’s Jabril Cox, who will definitely show up in my 'biggest steals'.

Now we have to look at who still influences the players that were already on that roster and when I take into the account how high I am these draft picks as well as the contract situation, I believe Parsons and Cox could make veterans Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch expendable in 2022.

For Smith, there is a potential out next year, with 6.8 million dollars of dead cap, which I could easily see the Cowboys take, considering he hasn’t lived up to that big extensions they signed him to last August, and Dallas just declined LVE’s fifth-year option, due to the fact he simply hasn’t stayed healthy since his rookie campaign, sohe would become a free agent next year anyway.

My prediction at this point is that Parsons replaced LVE at WILL and Cox is more of a dime backer on third downs in 2021, and then next year, the Cowboys move on from both veterans.

Davis Mills

First of all, I don’t wish on anybody to have to go to Houston right now, with the dumpster fire, they have turned themselves into recently. Now, the lack of knowledge about the whole Deshaun Watson situation makes it murky for the rookie quarterback, in terms of what exactly his role would be and if the Texans organization looks at him as an emergency option or anything else.

At this point, it does not look like Deshaun will play anywhere this upcoming season, much less in Houston. That can still change tremendously, but it would be the most logical outcome in my opinion. So Tyrod Taylor will likely begin the season as the starter, but he always seems to lose his jobs, even if it isn’t always his fault, like a team doctor puncturing his lungs a few minutes before their week two game last season.

The Texans have some kind of pseudo contract with Josh McCown to my knowledge, where they could bring him out of retirement in a worst-case scenario, but Davis Mills is really the only other QB on the roster. And while he may see this is an easy path to playing time, I really believe the former Stanford signal-caller needs time to work on being more consistently accurate and he might look a little erratic behind a below-average Texans O-line.

Mills has a quick release and some sneaky elusiveness, but he doesn’t even have 500 career dropbacks in college and missed practice time as well with injuries, plus he’s very inconsistent with his release. I think outside of the five quarterbacks, that went in the first round, plus Kellen Mond maybe, he is the only one who I could see as an eventual starter, but the worst thing for him would be to get thrown out there early on. And for a team in contention for the first overall pick next year, Houston may be inclined to put him on the field rather than a capable backup.