Crabtree injury means big changes for 49ers offence

Michael Crabtree

Colin Kaepernick just lost his favourite toy.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon on Wednesday during off-season workouts at the San Francisco training facility. Crabtree underwent an operation to surgically repair the tendon on Thursday, and initial reports suggest that he will be side-lined for around six months.

Doctors believed last night that Michael Crabtree’s torn Achilles would sideline him six months and recommended surgery asap.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 22, 2013

This means that there is at least some potential for Crabtree to return during the last few weeks of the regular season, and most likely the playoffs as well. In the meantime, head coach Jim Harbaugh and the rest of the 49ers coaching staff need to start making plans to replace their most productive aerial threat. It won’t be easy, but luckily the injury has occurred very early in the pre-season, and so they will at least have plenty of time to do it.

Two years ago, this wouldn’t have been a huge issue for the Niners; but after Crabtree’s breakout season in 2012, the 25-year-old receiver has made himself very hard to replace. He put up totals of 1,105 yards and 9 touchdowns on 86 receptions, making it his most productive season to date by some distance. His catches and yards were more than twice as many as Vernon Davis, whose 41 catches and 548 yards were the next best on the team. Crabtree developed a real connection with new 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick through the season, and it is obvious through the stats alone that he became Kaepernick’s favourite target over the course of the season. During his 10 starts last season (seven regular season games and three postseason, Kaepernick targeting Crabtree 89 times, a number more than double any other 49ers’ player).

The stats don’t tell the whole story of Kaepernick’s dependence on Crabtree, though. He wasn’t just Colin Kaepernick’s favourite target; he was also his go-to target in clutch situations. In week 15 in New England, with the game tied at 31-31 in the middle of the 4th quarter, the young quarterback threw a short outside curl route to Crabtree and the receiver shook off his defender for a 38-yard score that would become the difference in the game. In the Superbowl, Kaepernick targeted Crabtree at the goal line with all three of their final offensive plays. That shows Kaepernick’s trust of Crabtree more than anything else ever could. When the chips were down, he wants to throw it to #15 and nobody else.

Of course, even with Kaepernick’s obvious favouritism, Crabtree going down is not akin to the Lions losing Calvin Johnson or the Bears losing Brandon Marshall. While the loss of those players would devastate the productivity of those respective teams, the Niners have enough depth to survive without their primary receiver. Michael Crabtree was not ever going to be the reason the Niners made it back to the Superbowl anyway.

In fact, spun in a certain way, this could almost be a good thing for the 49ers. It’s possible that losing Crabtree will push Kaepernick to build some chemistry with the other pass catchers instead of just zeroing in on his favourite target. If he can build that rapport with a dynamic weapon like Vernon Davis, who was spectacularly under-used last season, then the Niners offence could become even better without Michael Crabtree in it.

But of course, for that to happen, San Fran will be relying on players to step up in Crabtree’s absence. In such a physically demanding league, with injuries being such a frequent occurrence, the principle of “next man up” always applies. Someone else has to be ready to just step up and fill the void. The 49ers definitely have the depth and the talent to do that.

So who actually is there on the Niners roster to replace Crabtree? Well, it probably won’t be just one person. As well as using Davis in a more prevalent role, the wide receiver group are going to have to step up together and collectively be the “next man up”.

AJ Jenkins

AJ Jenkins could be the one to contribute the most next season. He could be in line for a breakout year in 2013, but the first year pro didn’t register a single catch all of last season. While rookie wide receivers aren’t known for being especially productive, zero catches for a first round pick is an alarming statistic. The other first round receivers from last year’s draft, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd and Kendell Wright, all managed at least 45 receptions and over 500 yards each. Those are significant contributions that Jenkins, for whatever reason, didn’t even see the field enough to even get close to matching.

So Jenkins is somewhat of an unknown entity at this point. On the one hand, he was a first round pick and a highly regarded talent coming out of college. And on the other, he didn’t perform well enough last season to register even a single catch in a San Francisco team that was not particularly strong in depth at the wide receiver position. Jenkins could be the answer to San Francisco’s prayers or just another burden in 2013. We simply don’t know, and that must be an unnerving riddle for 49ers fans to try and solve.

Another answer could be the new rookie wide receiver, Quinton Patton, who was drafted in the fourth-round out of Louisiana Tech. He could produce where AJ Jenkins could not, and be the saving grace to a positional group badly in need of one. Having said that, it’s hard to count on any rookie to produce right away; something Jenkins knows all about.

Randy Moss was the #2 receiver on the depth chart last season, but is no longer in San Francisco as the 49ers failed to offer him a new deal after the expiry of his contract in March. His impact on the team last year was negligible, however, and so even if he was on the roster, it is likely that we wouldn’t see much production from him.

That leaves Mario Manningham and Kyle Williams, but of course they’re both coming off major injuries and may not be ready to participate at the start of training camp. Even when fully healthy, neither one of them has looked capable of stepping into Crabtree’s shoes since their arrival on the Gold Coast.

So with all that uncertainty at the position, Jim Harbaugh is sure glad that he traded for Anquan Boldin now. Boldin, a Superbowl winner with Baltimore in February, made one of the most talked about moves of the off-season when San Francisco traded a sixth round pick to acquire the 32-year-old. As a slower possession receiver, it was likely that Boldin’s role with the team would be more of a chain moving #2 guy; but with Crabtree’s injury, he will now likely see a lot of time as the Niners primary receiver.

Anquan Boldin

If Boldin plays for San Fran the way he did in the post-season for Baltimore, then the Niners aren’t going to have a problem. Boldin rolled back the clock and delivered some game-winning performances during the Ravens playoff run, leading all wide receivers in receptions, targets, yards and touchdowns. Second place in all four categories, incidentally, was Michael Crabtree.

However, if Jim Harbaugh gets the Anquan Boldin that showed up in the regular season in Baltimore, then there might be cause for concern. Boldin only managed 4 touchdowns in the entire 16-game regular season, the same amount as he recorded in just 4 games in the playoffs. Michael Crabtree got more than double that amount in 2012, and so if Boldin wants to effectively cover for Crabtree in the 49ers system, he’s going to need to figure out a way to be more effective in the red zone during the regular season. If he can do that, the Niners will have found their replacement.

Obviously, this is all mere potential and speculation at this point. Boldin “might” recapture his form from the Superbowl run. Patton “might” produce as a rookie; Jenkins “might” have that breakout season. What will be interesting to see is whether that potential will actually be realised. And that is the fear that the 49ers organisation is carrying at the moment. Losing Crabtree shouldn’t be a big problem for them, but to replace him they are going to have to rely on a lot of players with real question marks over their heads. Sooner or later, the answers to those question marks are going to be found, and San Francisco fans better hope they like the answers.

The wide receivers, however, are only half the story. The player who will be counted on more than any other to step up is quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick, who will be entering his first full season as a starter, is going to have to change his game drastically to adapt to the receivers available to him. The quick screens and slants he so loved to throw to Crabtree are no longer an option; deep routes down the middle to speedster Vernon Davis and timing routes to possession man Anquan Boldin will have to replace them. As things stand, we don’t really know how the quarterback will react to that adjustment. If Crabtree’s absence proves too much for the quarterback to shoulder, we might be seeing a lot more of Mr Kaepernick sprinting into the end zone with the famous “Kaepernicking” celebration in 2013. Most fans wouldn’t mind that at all.

However they intend on doing it, it is going to be a challenge for everyone involved with the 49ers offence to get the unit rolling again without their best receiving weapon. But judging by last year, and the versatility Kaepernick brings to the table, it is a challenge they are more than capable of handling.