Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy is in playcaller hell.
In theory, the scheme is good; but in practice, the execution has been woeful and that's been most apparent in the Bears' run game. As a disciple of Andy Reid, Nagy has sadly inherited Reid's greatest weakness of religiously abandoning the run game as soon as his offense faces any difficulty moving the ball.
This isn't an end-all negative trait, but it must be noted Nagy is not the offensive genius his mentor is, which leads to a pattern that plays out pretty often across Chicago Bears games: The run game struggles, Nagy abandons it to call an average to good passing game, he leans heavily on his defense to be good to great to compensate, and most often the Bears squeak out a win or barely lose.
Let's take a look at how close Bears games actually are:
Game 1 - Bears vs Lions - Bears win by 4.
Game 2 - Bears vs Giants - Bears win by 4.
Game 3 - Bears vs Falcons - Bears win by 4.
Game 4 - Bears vs Colts - Bears lose by 8.
Game 5 - Bears vs Panthers - Bears win by 7.
Game 6 - Bears vs Buccaneers - Bears lose by 1.
Game 7 - Bears vs Rams - Bears lose by 14.
Game 8 - Bears vs Saints - Bears lose by 3.
To say this is a frustrating experience would be an understatement.
Aside from the Rams game, the Chicago Bears are almost always in every game to the very end, and this is with Nagy running the offense with one hand tied behind his back.
A strong run game will allow the Bears to control the clock and open up the passing game but Nagy just can't seem to get that unit going.
The Chicago Bears' run game is suffering
The above graph shows that the Bears have the worst run game unit in their division. It is so bad that they failed to have a 2nd running back qualify for the chart.
David Montgomery is actually a positive performer on the chart but he clearly needs help. Nagy just seems to be the poor man's version of Andy Reid even down to his player evaluations. All his draft picks and free agent signings have either been horrible at worst or above average at best.
Andy Reid is 25 to 30 years in and fully understands what type of players he needs to bring in to run his offense to perfection Nagy just isn't there yet and the Chicago Bears front office can't continue to wait on him.
Nagy will probably get one more shot with a new quarterback and I really think that will go a long way as he is currently producing an above-average passing offense despite inconsistent QB play.
Chicago Bears are still looking for the right quarterback
Matt Nagy is not only employing the worst QB in his division, but the second-worst one as well.
There are only 2 options available to Nagy. One is to somehow get his run game going, but that's unlikely due to the poor O-line play the Chicago Bears have experienced throughout his tenure -- and the lack of an elite running back.
The second option is to bring in a guy who can run his offense to perfection. Andy Reid is in Nirvana with Mahomes. (Ironically, the Chicago Bears passed on Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, instead choosing Mitch Trubisky with the No. 2 overall pick.)
When Andy Reid abandons the run game these days, no one bats an eye. Nagy needs to find his own Mahomes, but that's easier said than done. Reid was 20 years in when he found "his guy" -- and more importantly to note, on his second job.
Nagy needs to cut bait with both these misses and swing big in the offseason for his guy or it may just be the end of his time with the Chicago Bears.
The Chicago Bears also need upgrades at wide receiver
Nagy also desperately needs to find weapons for his new "guy" at quarterback, whoever that will be.
Allen Robinson projects as a great No. 2, but he's currently cosplaying as a solid No. 1 receiver. A Davante Adams-type receiving threat is not likely to be found in free agency, but Justin Jefferson came from the draft, and Alabama is releasing another wave of track team receivers soon. Hopefully Nagy ups his player evaluation skills.