Michael Penix Jr. scouting report: Exploring the Washington quarterback's strengths and weaknesses

Just outside the top-500 overall recruits in 2018, Michael Penix ended up redshirting his true freshman season three games in due to a torn ACL. Over the next two seasons, he completed 61.6 percent of his passes for over 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, plus four more TDs on the ground.

This past year, not only did he make first-team all-conference, but he finished behind only LSU’s Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy and All-American ballots, whilst receiving the Maxwell award, given to the best quarterback in the country,

Michael Penix Jr. scouting report

Physical make-up & arm talent:

• Has a rocket launcher attached to his left shoulder, which enables him to threaten the whole field and test tight windows as well as drop it into the bucket for streaking receivers
• At Washington, you were able to see his balls cut through the wind on days while the quarterback on the other side struggled, splitting hook linebackers and safeties in two-high looks with absolute lasers regularly
• Fully capable of launching the ball from one hash toward the opposite sideline to drop it into the bucket for guys on slot fade routes
• He’s not afraid of far-hash throws in the 10-19 yard range and he rips those deep curls and digs that other quarterbacks are hesitant with at times
• Capable of speeding up his release process and getting the ball out with his feet not aligned at all as he’s just getting into his dropback, when he sees an easy access throw present itself, even outside the numbers
• Can alter his arm slots and side-arm some RPO slants/glance routes after riding the back initially or get it out quicker from his hip on guys sitting down in voids of zone coverage
• When throwing the ball over the head of a shallow zone defender, you see him add some arc to those balls and not allow guys to just get a hand on it
• You can do some pocket movement stuff and ask him to launch the ball to guys way across the field, where he features a quick shoulder turn to get set up

Processing & decision-making:

• His ball placement generally is often to where only his receiver can get their hands on it, leading guys towards the sideline or putting it high and away from the position of the defender – just one of his 20+ yard passing attempts was deemed “turnover-worthy” by PFF, which were picked off
• Recognizes when a corner has his back turned and isn’t in a position to defend the back-shoulder fade, constantly giving guys the upper hand on those
• Even though Ryan Grubb's offense thrived on attacking down the field, it also accentuated Penix’s ability to tear apart static defensive looks, whether it’s pre-snap alignment advantages or how they put shallow zone defenders into conflict
• Does well to get single-high safeties turned the wrong way, to let it fly towards the opposite sideline
• Has those big 10.5-inch hands to make those full-on hard pump fakes with his second hand off the ball and he sets up shot plays very well, where he may fake a screen one way and then quickly re-sets to fire backside post routes
• Doesn’t need a whole lot of space to spread the ball all across the field like a garden sprinkler, sort of shooting from the hip
• Not afraid to hang in the pocket with the walls kind of closing away, to allow routes to develop and fire the ball in there
• There were so many plays where Penix stood in until the last possible moment with a rusher barreling in and pulling that quick trigger to whip throws
• Led the FBS with 43 big-time throws last season – eight more than any other QB (Drake Maye) – yet only had a 2.0% turnover-worthy rate (tied for 12th)

Playmaking in & out of the pocket:

• Excels at sliding to a clean platform, which he can launch it from, without getting into actual scramble mode
• Yet he can also roll outside the pocket and throw the ball with touch to receivers working across the field along with him
• Can sort of disengage his upper and lower body from each other and make throws without a clean platform or his feet cockeyed, purely thanks to his arm, which others would barely be able to hit with their base aligned properly
• Had an insane play against USC in 2023, where he spun to the left, pumped multiple times and ultimately lofted the ball just before going out of bounds to one of his receivers running along the back-line of the end-zone from about 35 yards away
• Featured the lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate among all NCAA QBs with 100+ dropbacks (3.2%) in 2022, while his average depth of target actually increased to about 1.5 of the mark he had when kept clean (14.7 yards) – last season he was still 7.6% in terms of P2S rate and his ADOT under pressure was even higher (15.5 yards)
• While it didn’t show up a whole lot with the Huskies, where he simply didn’t run a lot, Penix running right around a 4.5 and having elite jumps at his pro day is a reminder that he is a better athlete than he’s given credit for, and you see flashes when someone is coming unblocked off the edge and he sprints up to the line of scrimmage or he escapes the pocket to extend
• Certainly has that gamer mentality, which is how we led the Huskies to an undefeated National Championship game appearance, five wins of six ranked teams, averaging well over 300 passing yards and 13 TDs vs. only two INTs

Weaknesses:

• When you look at where balls end up across the entire sample size, I’d certainly define it as general accuracy rather than pin-point ball placement for Penix, when it’s not based on leverage throws vs. tight coverage
• As many big plays as he delivers through the air, he misses more deep balls than you’d like to see because he doesn’t lead the motion with his back foot and bring his entire body through since he relies so heavily on his arm
• Frequently will stare down his primary read extensively and at times even be flat-footed as he watches it develop, and he did have three potential top-75 picks at receiver along with arguably the top pass-protecting O-lines in the country to not get punished for it
• Showcases questionable pocket presence at times, where he’ll slide closer toward pressure points or fall away unnecessarily, while lacking the quick-twitch, to make rushers up the middle miss
• You have to wonder how NFL decision-makers will look at a 24-year-old with an extensive injury history, not finishing any of his four seasons with Indiana healthy (two ACLs and shoulder surgeries each)

Back in December, I argued that Michael Penix should win the Heisman Trophy, thanks to not only the numbers he put up but how he helped the Huskies through an undefeated season in college football’s top conference. Then, watching his two playoff games, it painted a fairly clear picture as to what his NFL projection looks like.

Ultimately, I believe he has the potential to put up explosive numbers in a vertically-oriented passing attack. But he’ll need to anticipate windows over the middle of the field better and not be as reliant on working outside the numbers to be a long-term starter.

Grade: Second round