NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2022 season

NFL Power Rankings: Maybe next year?

#20. Cleveland Browns (5-7)

NFL Week 13 - Cleveland Browns v Houston Texans

The Browns here are the only team of this group with a legitimate chance of somehow making a run at a Wild Card spot. I’d still say it’s extremely unlikely. If Deshaun Watson’s return is any indication of what he’ll look like for the most part over the final month plus, I don’t see a way they can make a run.

While they’re now down to “only” ninth at 4.8 yards per rush, they can create movement and get that two-headed monster out of the backfield punishing second-level defenders. There’s very few teams that can slow that group down, in neutral gamescript situations. Facing the Bengals now with D.J. Reader back in the middle should be a solid test.

Unfortunately, their defense has not done their part at all, outside of Myles Garrett taking over some games when they’ve been ahead, and splashes by second-year linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Those two guys are the only ones on that unit that have forced multiple turnovers, and they’ve equally allowed a 4.8-yard average on the ground as a group.

If you take off their four takeaways this past Sunday against the lowly Texans, they’ve only recorded eight of those in the other 12 games. This would be the fewest NFL-wide. They lack run-stuffers on the interior of their front and they’re out of position too often on the back-end.

#21. Green Bay Packers (5-8)

NFL Week 13 - Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears

What is there to say about the Packers at this point? Other than the reigning NFL Super Bowl champion Rams falling into obscurity, this was the other NFC powerhouse for the last couple of years, that always seemed to have a seat at the table.

We’ve seen their offense have a certain identity crisis, as it’s taken a while for Aaron Rodgers to build chemistry with those young receivers. They’ve had protection issues as they were figuring out the best constellation of the five names. If you look at their rushing totals, they’d basically look like a see-saw visualized - four games below 68 and of 199+ each.

At times they’ve wanted to be a more methodical West Coast offense, while other teams Rodgers seems frustrated with those targets around him and is just taking isolated shots down the field. For me personally. however, having projected this to potentially be a top-five defense in football, they’ve actually been more disappointing on that side of the ball.

They’re one of only four defenses in the NFL to allow at least five yards per carry, not fighting off blocks and overrunning stuff on the second level because of it. That’s makes them vulnerable off play-action, combined with a DC in Joe Barry who’s been unwillingness to deploy his personnel accordingly. This has resulted in opposing passers throwing touchdowns on five percent of pass attempts (tied for fifth in the NFL). Also, how the hell are the special teams still only 30th in DVOA, after how last season ended?

#22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

NFL Week 13 - Jacksonville Jaguars v Detroit Lions

Want to hear the truth on the 2022 Jaguars? – They’re just not ready yet. Many people, including myself, got really excited about what this group looked like over the first month of the season. They annihilated the Colts and Chargers, while they had the ball with a chance to tie or win against the Commanders and Eagles.

Since then, they’ve won just two of nine additional contests. This past Sunday should’ve been a tightly contested matchup in Detroit, as the bookmakers basically had it as a pick’em all week. Yet, we saw the Lions have just arrived where they need to be at the mid-way point of this year, and the Jags simply haven’t yet.

There’s a lot to like here with Trevor Lawrence's development, how consistent Christian Kirk has been and the juice Travis Etienne has given them as a dual-threat weapon. Unfortunately, the defense has fallen off quite dramatically.

After pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 31.6% of dropbacks averaged over those first four weeks (which would lead the NFL), they’ve now regressed to the middle of the pack. Travon Walker had some flashes early on, but has not lived up to the status of a number one overall pick yet.

Offenses have had the other first-rounder Devin Lloyd’s head spinning with stuff they’ve thrown at him, which is why his snap count has decreased each of the past five weeks. Their biggest issues on defense however, has been creating stops in high-leverage moments. They’re 29th in the NFL on third-down (45.6%) and 25th in red-zone TD percentage (61.0%).

#23. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

NFL Week 12 - Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals

I’m still kind of surprised by how more people didn’t see this regression coming. This is a Cardinals team that, after starting off last year at 10-2, won just one of their final six games, including a non-contest against the Rams in the Wildcard Round. You’re looking at a team whose best offensive plays are back-shoulder fades to an isolated DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray running around like he’s in his backyard.

I do want to give Kliff Kingsbury a little bit of credit. D-Hop has moved around a little more since his return and they’ve been more effective running the ball by creating favorable angles. However, that’s now at best a basic level of offensive play-design.

You combine that with a defense that has lived and died by the blitz (once again top-three with a blitz rate of 35.3%), with a bunch of somewhat misfit hybrid defenders and a lackluster group of corners, and you can quickly see fortunes swing the other way. Only the Falcons have allowed opponents to convert a higher percentage of drives into points (43.1%) and nobody has been worse at stopping teams in the red-zone (giving up touchdowns on 68.9% of those trips).

#24. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

NFL Week 13 - Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons

With mobility at the quarterback position and some of the pre-snap motion that was promised by offensive coordinator Matt Canada, this Pittsburgh offense was supposed to be more dynamic in 2022. Especially compared to how it had been with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. And to be fair, first-round pick Kenny Pickett has had a few nice moments at the quarterback spot. The Steelers are now 4-4 with him as the starter.

Canada has put together some head-scratching play-designs. They’re still not a very efficient running team (4.3 yards per carry) and they haven’t really gotten any explosive plays (unless Pickett has hit George Pickens on deep shots), as the QB is tied for dead-last with an average of just 4.2 yards after the catch. Overall, they’re tied with the Texans for the second-lowest yards play (4.8), ahead of only the Rams.

Defensively, not having had T.J. Watt for the majority of the season has certainly been a major factor. But considering they haven’t been able to play with the lead and get opposing teams into many obvious passing situations, they just haven’t put enough heat on opposing quarterbacks. They have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (16.3%).

They haven’t been particularly disruptive against the run either, with a league-low 43 tackles for loss. The reason they’ve gone 3-1 since their bye week is their seven-to-nothing turnover advantage across that stretch. This doesn’t really seem sustainable. This could be an interesting team to watch next NFL season however, if they can build up some more positive momentum.