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#4 New England Patriots (9-3)
Same old, same old for these guys. With all that chatter about the decline of the Patriots, people have overlooked the fact that they are back to pace for a first-round bye in the playoffs and they are one slip-up by the Chiefs away from the AFC going through Gillette Stadium – and we know what that usually looks like.
Bill Belichick’s defense still notoriously takes away the number one option of the opposition, displayed by Adam Thielen’s five catches for 28 yards on Sunday. As simple as it sounds, teams want to get the ball into the hands of their top playmaker and when opponents don’t allow them to, they simply struggle to find alternatives for the most part. Outside of stalwarts like Devin McCourty and Dont’a Hightower, the two players who have really stood out for the Pats have been Trey Flowers and Stephon Gillmore.
Flowers has been by far their most productive pass rusher and while New England likes to roll coverage towards number one receivers a lot, Gillmore excels at shutting down twos, as he did with Stefon Diggs. When you look at this team, they will always be in the bottom third in terms of giveaways and penalties surrendered, but what’s interesting about them has been their offensive approach this season. While they still like to spread defenses out with empty sets, diagnose coverages and pick them apart with underneath throws to some degree still, they have truly gone back to being a power running team.
At a time when scoring is at an all-time high and everybody wants to light up the skies, the Patriots use James Develin in an actual fullback role far more than any other team. Versus Minnesota they started off testing the Vikings’ edges with jet sweeps and once they got the attention they wanted, they started pounding it inside with rookie Sony Michel. You add to that one of the top three screen games in the league and you basically take the ball out of the hands of the winningest quarterback in NFL history and you still beat people up. When I watched that game on Sunday, I felt like you could put any back-up QB in that lineup and they still would have won.
I don’t want to be disrespectful in any way here, because with the game on the line there might be nobody I’d want under center more than Brady, but it just shows you how well these guys function in that system.
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (9-3)
What a huge win for the Chargers at Heinz Field! One of the craziest stats I have maybe ever seen was that the Steelers were 220-0-2 when leading by 14+ points at home before Sunday night. That is incredible, but what was even more stunning to me was the fact that it was a team, that had let us down several times in recent years in those big moments, that would end that streak. Keenan Allen is borderline uncoverable because he is pretty much untouchable off the line with his unique releases and he made Joe Haden looked foolish time and time again.
Philip Rivers is on the edge of the MVP conversation and I think we haven’t nearly talked about him enough. Even though Melvin Gordon is outright, he and Austin Ekeler form the best duo of running backs in the league to me and while Gordon is out, Justin Jackson will do an outstanding job filling in. And I’m not just saying this based on what I saw on Sunday, I had him as a top 100 draft prospect and I thought there was no more rock-solid back available.
The offensive line has improved heavily this year and they are doing it without having to invest too much into it. That receiving crew is as complete as it gets and they are the only team not named the Rams that is top 10 in passing and rushing yards. Defensively, they worry me a little down the middle without Corey Liuget and Denzel Perryman. Those two were their top guys in terms of stopping the run, but the return of Joey Bosa to go along with Melvin Ingram is a scar.
Cornerback Trevor Williams has been dealing with an ankle injury all year long and not only has he lost his starting job, he has not seen the field in the last four weeks. That number two corner spot is their weakness with Casey Hayward on the opposite side and Desmond King in the slot. However, let me tell you one thing – rookie safety Derwin James is special. I had the Florida State product as a top five prospect, but he fell all the way to the Chargers at 17th overall.
He can take on and shed blockers in the run game, cover bigger bodies one-on-one, blitz off the edge and the Chargers even ask him to cover deep because he is their best guy at it. This team is definitely pointing in the right direction and ironically enough, they just won a game with a late-second kick.
