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The road here for the Jaguars
This team came into the 2018 season with their highest expectations in franchise history possibly. After nine straight non-winning seasons and six consecutive of five wins or less, Sacksonville emerged as the big bully of the AFC. They won the South for their first time in the 2000s with the league’s number one rushing attack and the most talented defense in football, which was second only to the Vikings in yards and points allowed.
With the addition of All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell there should have only been more room for their sledgehammer Leonard Fournette to punish defenders at the second level, they brought in a high-upside tight-end in Austin Seferian-Jenkins as a big target in the passing game and they brought everybody back on defense plus they had another year to grow together.
While the re-signing of Blake Bortles to a 54-million dollar contract was highly questionable for most people, their identity of pushing people around on either side of the ball combined with the attitude and talent their players brought to the table, made the Jags look like one of the favorites to make it to the conference championship game once again.
They started their season in the Meadowlands with a 20-15 win over the Giants, which looked good back then considering all the talent those guys have at the offensive skill positions, and then they really put their name on the national radar with a 31-20 win over the Patriots. Blake Bortles had a career game with over 400 total yards and four touchdowns.
However, since then their only win came over the Jets and in their four losses, they have averaged just 8.5 points per game and their QB has been so bad, that he ultimately got benched last Sunday versus Houston. Outspoken guys like Jalen Ramsey have started to get very quiet and the feared “Sacksonville” even allowed 40 points to the Cowboys, who had been averaging under 14 a game at that point.
So what happened to our favorite new loud team, that beat down opponents and told reporters about how much better they are than anybody they were facing? Well, while the defense hasn’t been nearly as dominant as they were last year, I think this all comes back to the offense and their inability to keep drives moving, which leads to the defense being on the field constantly.
The offense
I simply believe the offense is extremely limited by the abilities of quarterback Blake Bortles. I had him ranked as the second-worst starter just behind Eli Manning when I did my quarterback index last week and he proved me right on Sunday once again. His numbers might not look quite that bad, but most of those have come in garbage time and when you put on the tape you see that their passing game lacks any intermediate attack and opponents are not afraid of sitting in underneath zones and allowing any shots over the top.
Pretty much exactly half his yardage total has come after the catch and it’s not like he is putting the ball out in front of his receivers on post or deep-in routes. He is consistently throwing the ball short of the sticks and while his guys have some room to work, they rarely can get past the first down marker. This is what Bortles did with the offense over their last three games – against the Chiefs they gained one first down on each of their first two drives followed up by four straight turnovers by their QB, against the Cowboys they got two total first downs in their first seven drives and versus the Texans Bortles started off with a fumble inside their own 35 before converting on third down once in their next three drives.
That lack of a consistent passing game is only amplified by the fact that their ground game has not been nearly as dominant with Leonard Fournette banged up. The Jags actually rank 23rd in total rushing yards at this moment. They have rotated guys, brought in a Jamaal Charles coming off his couch and now even traded for Carlos Hyde from the Browns.
I think Yeldon has looked pretty good in limited action, but even going back to his days at Alabama, he has never been a workhorse for an offense. He is at his best as a change-of-pace guy who can help out on passing downs, but without their number one back they relied on Corey Grant to actually play Yeldon’s role. While the offensive line has been underperforming to some degree and a lot of that has to do with the loss of left tackle Cam Robinson, they have never opened up space with traps and angles, but rather with raw power and pushing people off the line.
That fits perfectly with a truck like Fournette, who has no problem just banging into blockers and bursting through cracks. Without him they lack that element of punishing defenders once he gets a full head of steam and that pure straight-line speed once he sees daylight.
The defense
On defense, I see a fundamental problem with these Seattle-type single-high safety schemes that play cover-three and bail man for the most part. If you have the right personnel, you can force offenses to throw it underneath and then rally to bring down the pass-catchers for short gains and I believe Jacksonville has the best collection of players to run it, but there are some obvious weaknesses.
These offensive coaches are getting so good and more importantly so used to that scheme, since about half the league is running it, that they find ways to exploit it. There are some obvious tells in the Jaguars’ principles. When Tashaun Gipson is lined up over the tight-end they probably play cover-one, against trips sets they usually play a combo-coverage with one of their All-Pro corners in man against the single receiver and the rest of the defense rolls into a cover-three shell, plus the further the distance is on third downs the more conservative they got in their coverage calls. These are all areas you can exploit, even when the opposition has elite talent.
The other part that opponents have taken advantage of is the fact that their run defense has been underwhelming so far. The Jaguars are 25th in rushing yards allowed and teams have run the ball on them with fourth-highest rate, because they are pretty small and built on rushing the passer.
Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus bring some beef on the D-line, but their linebackers are undersized. Telvin Smith and Myles Jack have been on the field for every single defensive snap, but their next-closest linebacker has recorded just 12 percent. Last season they still had veteran Paul Posluszny as the MIKE of their base 4-3 and then substituted him on passing downs.
Now they just don’t have a lot of size, when offenses start to run right at them. That influences the way Smith and Telvin have to react to play-fakes and more importantly offenses don’t get into third-and-longs that often, which doesn’t allow their pass rushers to get loose and blitz that much on third down. Of course constantly being on the field and playing from behind make all of this even harder.
