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Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings - Week 16
The situation
Once again, for this matchup to decide who will win the NFC North, Week 17 has to be taken into account as well, but let’s look at these teams coming into Sunday first. The 11-3 Packers are traveling to Minneapolis with a spot in the playoff secured already, while the Vikings are far from their goal of playing in January at 10-4.
If the home team wins this divisional battle, they would book a ticket to the postseason and could still hope for the Pack to lose at Detroit in the season finale, while winning their week 17 matchup against the Bears, in order to win the North. However, the Vikes could also still fall out of the postseason race altogether with home losses to the Packers and Bears, if the Rams win their final two games.
The Packers have the upper hand here due to their win-loss percentage in common games, but the Rams also have the tie-breaker over them thanks to a better in-conference record. So Minnesota still has everything to win as well as everything to lose, while Green Bay is looking to secure the division early and keep that number two seed, thanks to a strong record in conference play.
Introducing both teams
Having watched every single game the Packers have played all year, it is crazy to think they are 11-3 as the two seed right now. Versus the Bears alone a bad Mitch Trubisky throw into the end-zone and a pitch not being made for a walk-in touchdown on the final play of the game have given them two wins. They were also gifted a couple of hands to the face calls to beat Detroit, a different spot for Christian McCaffrey could have sent that game to overtime and when they traveled to San Francisco, they got absolutely blown out.
With that being said, I liked Green Bay before the season started and there is still reason to. Matt LaFleur’s offense has been at least some upgrade, Aaron Jones is continuing to emerge as one of the more dynamic two-way backs in the game and Aaron Rodgers is second behind only Jameis Winston with 35 passes of 25+ yards while having thrown 22 interceptions less.
Defensively, this group looked a lot different at the start of the year, when they held the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos to a combined 45 points. I still like Mitte Pettine’s creative blitzes and the way he puts his two great pass rushers in one-on-one situations, but they struggle with teams that combo-block their interior defenders in the run game and they are susceptible to some big plays through the air.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are looking like one of the more complete teams in football. Now with Adam Thielen back in the lineup, they have two legitimate playmakers at receiver, Kyle Rudolph has been used more as a blocker this year but has also come up clutch for them on several occasions and Kirk Cousins has been playing as well as he has ever done, pushing the ball down the field for big plays while also taking care it.
The key to Minnesota’s offense, however, is superstar running back Dalvin Cook and we will have to monitor his status closely after banging up that shoulder once again. The way they utilize him in the zone run game and put the ball in his hands on screen passes can dictate game-scripts.
Defensively, their corner play has taken a big dip from the years prior, especially with Xavier Rhoades looking like a shell of himself. However, Eric Kendricks has become one of the premier middle linebackers in the game and that defensive line has shown the ability to take over some games.
Last Sunday, it looked like the Vikings would go into halftime down 13-12 when the Chargers easily were in field goal range already, but a strip-sack directly led to a touchdown the other way and the defense dominated the second half. Six more turnovers and a shutout led to a final score of 39-10.
The Xs and Os
When these two teams step on the field on Monday night, I truly believe the Vikings are the more complete group. Their defense is so disciplined that they won’t give away anything easy. Whether that maybe their defensive ends peeling off with guys on the backside of bootlegs or their layered pass rush that makes it tough for Rodgers to extend plays.
At the same time, we have seen the great offensive play-callers take advantage of some of the limited coverage variations by making it tough for the defenders to pass on assignments and I don’t think Minnesota has anybody who can cover Davante Adams. On the other side of the ball, the Packers will have a tough time slowing down that Viking attack.
This is a situation where the biggest strength for Minnesota – the run game – faces the biggest weakness for Green Bay – their interior rush defense. The status of Dalvin Cook – and his back-up rookie Alexander Mattison for that matter – will be a huge factor because of that.
In theory, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King should match up pretty well against that receiving duo for the Vikes, but we have seen those guys get loose against the Pack plenty of times, especially when they have a lot of field to work with on post-routes and such as off play-action.
