Previewing the 2019 NFL division title games

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans - Week 17

The situation

With the Texans’ 24-21 win in Nashville last Sunday, it took a little bit out of this week 17 rematch, but the AFC South and Wild-Card situation is far from being decided. Houston is traveling to Tampa Bay this Saturday for the early-window game to face a smoking hot Bucs squad. The Titans, on the other hand, face one of the NFL elites in the Saints, but at the least, they get them at home.

If Houston wins this weekend, they would already clinch the division thanks to a better record within the South. If they were to lose and the Titans pull off another improbable victory at home, this matchup would once again decide who gets to wear the crown at ten wins.

Let’s say they both win their week 16 games – at that point, Houston wouldn’t really have much to play for, depending on what the three AFC teams in front of them do, and could actually sit some of their starters, which would open up a path to a Wildcard spot for Tennessee.

They would then hope for the Steelers to lose at least one of their last two games – at the Jets and at the Ravens. And as crazy as it sounds – if the Texans lose out while the Steelers win out, they would be out of the playoffs entirely.

Introducing both teams

Prior to last Sunday, you could have easily argued that the Titans were the hottest team in the entire league not named Baltimore. They had won six of their last seven games, including an upset over the Chiefs, a clutch win in Indianapolis and beatdowns of the Jaguars and Raiders. That run was allowed by Derrick Henry running over defenses every week and sparked by some brilliant plays by Ryan Tannehill once he was inserted into the starting lineup.

Another guy who has been on fire is rookie receiver A.J. Brown, whose 267 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the last two games lead all NFL players. Defensively, they allow just under 20 points, have forced 22 turnovers and hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher outside of Christian McCaffrey all year long.

I have been a fan of defensive coordinator Dean Pees for a long time now because of the way he mixes up coverages and really keeps offenses on their heels with where he brings pressure from in combination with who he drops out. With Tennessee, it is about all three faces of the game, however, as their special teams have actually changed games. They blocked a potential game-tying field goal versus Kansas City and they took another blocked kick back for a touchdown in a 17-17 game at Indy.

While their own field goal kicker situation has been a mess, they easily lead the league with six blocks themselves and Brett Kern is number on with 37 punts downed inside the opposing 20.

The Texans, on the other hand, have been one of the more frustrating teams to watch this year, simply because they have been so up-and-down on a weekly basis. One week the Panthers hold them to 16 points, the next they explode for 53 against the Falcons. They win at Arrowhead and build some momentum, but come out of their bye week completely flat in an embarrassing 41-7 loss at Baltimore.

And in December alone they finally got a win over the Patriots only to find themselves in a 38-3 hole against the Broncos the next week. With that win over the Titans they have taken control of their destiny, but am I supposed to trust them again an explosive Bucs team this week already again?

A lot of people might think Houston has one of the best defenses in the league because of what they see against New England in primetime, but they have been highly questionable for pretty much the entire year. The only two teams that haven’t scored at least 20 points on them this year have been the Jaguars and Panthers.

They have major issues in the secondary – outside of Justin Reid – and they have allowed a league-worst 48 percent of opposing third downs to be converted. The Texans’ success is all because of Deshaun Watson putting together some magic. When he is on, he can get as hot as anybody outside of Patrick Mahomes, but they need that full receiving crew to really kick into gear.

The Xs and Os

Unlike the other games we are discussing here, we have just seen this matchup play out and have a pretty good understanding of what could happen in week 17. However, the Titans were without their best corner Adoree Jackson and Derrick Henry was clearly not 100 percent with a bad hamstring, after not having practiced all week.

Having those two back all full strength potentially could be big and it’s a weekly guessing game for the Texans if speedster Will Fuller will be available. Without him, they are 2-2 this season and they scored almost five points less per game, which would be even more if they didn’t put up some points against Denver in garbage time. Outside of that, the Titans could easily have the heads-up in this matchup already.

In a three-point game, they had a field goal blocked on their opening series, a pass at the goal-line come out of the receiver’s arms and pop right into the ones of Whitney Mercilus to set up a Texans touchdown and a great pass by their punter be denied only by an even better play by the corner.

The Texans got quite a big break heading to Tampa Bay, as the Bucs will likely be without their two star receivers, while Tennessee hosts the Saints, but if this rematch ends up deciding the division winner, this will be another close, probably more high-scoring game.