Previewing the 2019 NFL division title games

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks - Week 17

The situation

And then there’s the biggest game left over these last two weeks of the regular season. It is not just a huge matchup because two heavyweights square off against each other for what will decide the NFC West, but also the implications it will have on the rest of the playoffs. The 49ers started the season 8-0 but now have gone 3-3 since.

Of course, their losses came to Seattle in an overtime thriller, in Baltimore on a last-second field goal and now again in dramatic fashion against the Falcons, when they were missing half of their starters on defense. So let’s not act this is not a great team still. Seattle, on the other hand, hasn’t won a game by more than one possession since week four, while also losing two games by multiple scores since then.

With the ‘Hawks having won the first matchup between the two, they are ahead for now, but no matter what happens in week 16, this game will decide the division champion – San Francisco would at least hold the tie-breaker on common opponents and Seattle would have swept the season series if they won.

Both these teams could still be the one or the six seed and almost anything in-between, outside of that fourth spot which is reserved for the worst division in the NFL.

(For the football nerds: Moreover, the Vikings could still jump whoever comes short of winning the West, although they would only be ahead of the Niners at the same record. The craziest scenario for me would be Seattle losing to the Cardinals before beating San Fran, while Green Bay wins out and New Orleans loses one of their final two games – which would make the Packers the number one seed, the Saints second and the Seahawks third. Also, somehow the Vikings are still alive for a first-round bye if the Seahawks, Saints, and Packers all were to lose out.)

Introducing both teams

I really don’t think this loss to Atlanta should concern 49ers fans too much when it comes to the quality of their team, even though it obviously influences their final seeding in the NFC. It took review on a play where the game’s best receiver just crossed the goal-line in the final seconds to lose that game, despite San Francisco being without five defensive starters and coming off a huge win in New Orleans.

One of the replacements was the guy I thought was responsible for that go-ahead touchdown. This is still one of the elite groups in the league as far as I’m concerned. Kyle Shanahan is the best offensive play-caller in the game today for my money, because of the way he designs his run game out of different personnel packages and all those bootlegs, throwback screens, etc. off it.

With 20 drops on the season, there are some concerns around this receiving corp as George Kittle at one point was targeted 11 straight times on Sunday, but they have had a few guys come up with big plays for them. San Francisco also has a nice mix of skill-sets with their three backs and none of them should be too tired as we approach Christmas.

Their defense – when healthy – might be the best in the entire league, with the combination of depth and talent on the D-line, Fred Warner emerging as a playmaker at middle linebacker and underrated pieces in the secondary. They have shown that they can play in multiple ways.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, might be coming off a victory and own the number one overall seed in the conference at this moment, but they have certainly given me more reason for concern. These are mostly due to a defense that is perceived differently than what it should be. Seattle is 29th in passing yards allowed and they have given up under 20 points just twice – against the Cardinals and Eagles.

Obviously, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and those guys are great, but this season they have struggled to put games away because of that unit and they have allowed huge days to the great receivers in this league. This team’s success really is mostly due to their MVP candidate Russell Wilson.

If Baltimore wraps up the number one seed and he doesn’t have two horrific games all of a sudden, Lamar Jackson will win the award, but I certainly believe Russ would be a worthy candidate as well. The Seahawks want to win with a bruising ground game and they are fourth in the league in rushing yards, but whenever they have needed their quarterback to step up and make big plays, he has come through for them.

This group has won as much as they have because they have been on the right side of shootouts. However, the losses of Rashaad Penny and Josh Gordon for very different reasons are huge hits.

The Xs and Os

Looking at the first meeting between these two teams, the final score is very deceiving when you think of how the game actually went. The San Francisco defense was pretty much dominating the game when it was 10-0 with about three minutes left in the first half when Jarran Reed strip-sacked Jimmy G and Jadeveon Clowney scooped it up for a touchdown.

Then it was a slightly overthrown ball to Kendrick Bourne around midfield that set up a short field for Seattle and another strip-sack by Clowney that had the Niners down 21-10 all of a sudden. The 49ers defense countered with their own strip-and-scoop to get back into the game and push it to overtime, where their undrafted rookie kicker missed a potential game-winning field goal.

So not only was this a much more defensive-oriented battle than the final score of 27-24 indicates, but the 49ers could have easily won that game as well. What is different this time around is the fact that they will play up in Seattle in front of the 12th man and the stakes couldn’t be higher, since this will feel like a playoff game already and the loser will have an actual road playoff game the following week, while the other team can likely rest their guys for a week.

I will be watching if the Seahawks can stay ahead of the sticks because we already saw what that vaunted Niners pass rush can do against the Hawks O-line in the dropback game. At the same time, we could see Clowney dominate San Francisco’s left tackle again, because it may not be Justin Skule filling in anymore, but Joe Staley has looked pretty bad since returning from injury.