NFL fantasy diamonds for 2022 - Quarterbacks

The NFL pre-season is well under way for all 32 teams and it's time to think about the fantasy draft. I wanted to give you some of my favorite targets in drafts at every position (other than kicker).

So just for reference – I primarily play in half-PPR leagues, with one quarterback. If you play Superflex, the whole strategy changes. And thinking of the best ball formats, you may be looking at players known for major spike weeks over guys with more consistent production.

I tried to offer names from both categories because I believe in building rosters that way in re-draft formats.

Let's start with the quarterbacks:

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr

Here’s one stat on Derek Carr that I’m sure many people haven’t heard yet – he is the only quarterback in the NFL to complete at least 66% of their passes and throw for 4,000+ yards in each of the last four seasons. And he hasn’t missed a single game over that stretch.

A few years ago, when people called Carr underrated based on the stats he put up, he had a lack of willingness to push the ball beyond the sticks. He had some of the worst yards differentials to the first down marker. This has changed dramatically over the past two years. He was ninth and then second in the NFL, respectively. In 2021 he was behind only Tom Brady with 67 passes of 20+ yards.

The Las Vegas Raiders replaced Brian Edwards with arguably the top receiver in football in Davante Adams. They also have one of the best offensive play-callers over the last decade in Josh McDaniels, who will be in his ear. That's along with just not having all the off-field drama around the organization like last year.

Looking at the offenses McDaniels ran in New England, they prided themselves on being like a chameleon in terms of how they adjusted to their own personnel and who they were facing. Overall, we did see them use plenty of 12 & 21 personnel and put an emphasis on gap-scheme power running.

They do have a lot of the right pieces to morph into that to some degree. But with Darren Waller back healthy, his ability to flex out wide or stress defenses down the seams will open things up for more of a quick-rhythm passing attack to keep the offense moving. This will put less stress on Carr to have to make multiple adjustments at the line and then find solutions to post-snap rotations from the defense. A lot of the concepts McDaniels has typically utilized were multi-purpose, meaning they can largely be used against any coverage.

It may be more of a ball-control passing attack, but if that run game gets going, they will take their shots off play-action. They may have the toughest trio to deal with in the NFL once they get down to the red zone. Just look at the success Davante Adams has had in that area of the field, Waller’s combination of size and explosiveness, and Hunter Renfrow as the guy who can double- and triple-move slot defenders.

I personally have Carr right on the fringes of my top-ten NFL fantasy quarterbacks. He's ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers, whose team has clearly morphed into a run-game and defense-oriented approach, with several question marks at receiver. Carr should also outperform Russell Wilson, who will have a strong imprint on that Denver Broncos offense, but does now work under Nathaniel Hackett and has a phenomenal young running back. So he simply won’t have to carry the load as much in the upcoming NFL campaign. This comes from looking at what the Broncos have done defensively compared to the post-Legion of Boom era in Seattle.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones

I already know most people reading this are rolling their eyes right now, but just hear me out.

First of all, Daniel Jones was the QB19 in fantasy points per game in the 2021 NFL season. So there you already have a slight edge if he just repeats that in 2022 for 17 games.

Next, look at the three projected receivers and running back in 11 personnel – Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkley. They missed a combined 24 weeks in the NFL last season. Other than Toney (who is a sleeper this year, looking at his rare metrics in targets and yards per route run as a rookie), because we don’t have a pro reference, all of the other guys had their worst seasons in terms of per-game production.

Which brings us to the main point here, the changes in the New York Giants' coaching staff. You could argue that the team should have already taken a different path at the QB position and the franchise not picking up his fifth-year option shows that he’s entering a make-or-break season. But let’s not forget that the offensive minds he’s worked under have been Pat Shurmur and Jason Garrett, along with head coach Joe Judge. Judge had so little trust in his players that by the end of the season his teams were running QB sneaks on third-and-long.

I’m a big fan of the changes they have made to that power structure in terms of the front office personnel and the coaching staff. Jones now gets to work under Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka, who were instrumental in developing Josh Allen in the NFL. That would be a ridiculous comparison, but in terms of decision-making and utilizing his strengths, those guys have that proven track record. Plus, from a pure fantasy perspective, matching that with a defensive coordinator in Wink Martindale. Martindale likes to go for it with heavy pressure packages to get the ball back for the offense, which creates additional opportunities.

They added a top offensive tackle in the draft and two underrated free agents to boost one of the worst O-lines over the last few years. The Giants will hopefully have a healthy Saquon and Toney – who could be major bargains based on their ADPs – due to the pure athletic traits they bring to the table. They also added another YAC specialist in second-rounder Wan’Dale Robinson from Kentucky. Working for an offensive staff that really understands how to utilize dynamic skill-position players, to me the only way is up.

He’ll probably go undrafted in the majority of NFL fantasy leagues. To get a profile like Jones, who averages nearly six yards per carry in his NFL career and is set for the most quarterback-friendly fantasy schedule according to FantasyPros, this could be a steal of a QB2.

That’s if you don’t go with the OTHER New York quarterback...

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson

I was not only concerned about the sanity of New York Jets fans, but also potentially scratching my notes for Zach Wilson after their first NFL preseason matchup. Thankfully, what was believed to be a torn ACL turned out to probably just knock him out for the rest of the preseason, and maybe the first two regular games. You probably wouldn't play him against the Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns anyway.

There’s no masking this – Wilson had a rough rookie campaign in the NFL. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts, he finished 32nd or 33rd in passer rating, QBR, net yards per attempt, DVOA and EPA. So the numbers were obviously no bueno.

With that being said, look at the tape and focus on the final eight weeks after Wilson returned from a PCL sprain. He was responsible for eight touchdowns against only two turnovers. He had a much more defined pre-snap plan and his ability to process information got a lot quicker.

There are two things to look at here, where he’ll be set up for success this upcoming NFL season:

First, the Jets finished second-to-last in adjusted games lost according to Football Outsiders. Wilson was without his top two receivers for the majority of the time and the Jets had to re-shuffle the O-line, while injuries in the backfield were a big factor as to why they ran the ball less than any team in the NFL. That, along with a banged-up defense that finished last in yards and points allowed, put extra pressure on the rookie quarterback.

Secondly, Wilson was comfortably last in EPA versus man-coverage and took seven more sacks than anybody else in the NFL when facing (25). That’s despite facing the 18th-most man-coverage snaps. You could argue that he’s at fault to some degree, but looking at the tape, those receivers simply did not win within the first three seconds. That meant he had to hold onto the ball and try to create something, which is where we saw some impressive plays from him.

The arm talent pops off the screen and we’ve seen him excel at fitting the ball into tight windows in the red zone. His ability to anticipate where to go against zone coverage was highly impressive and he has that innate feel for rushing angles, knowing how to extend plays.

He has his top two receivers from a year back and the Jets drafted Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson 10th overall. Wilson was arguably the toughest route-runner to deal with in the class and should do a lot of damage after the catch as their X. They also selected Breece Hall from Iowa State in the second round to form a dynamic one-two punch at running back. They completely overhauled their underwhelming tight-end room, signed a Pro Bowl guard in Laken Tomlinson and recently replaced the once again injured Mekhi Becton with a long-time veteran in Duane Brown.

Wilson has added “healthy weight” to be more sturdy inside the pocket. He has an underrated elusiveness to add some big scrambles, he has the weapons to attack down the field and there’ll be less pressure on him. He will be able to effectively run play-action and having guys to consistently beat man-coverage will result in some big plays.

You could probably get him in your last couple of picks in one-QB NFL fantasy leagues.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to check out the full video and feel free to head over to halilsrealfootballtalk.com for more of my work!