NFL fantasy diamonds for 2022 - Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson

I was not only concerned about the sanity of New York Jets fans, but also potentially scratching my notes for Zach Wilson after their first NFL preseason matchup. Thankfully, what was believed to be a torn ACL turned out to probably just knock him out for the rest of the preseason, and maybe the first two regular games. You probably wouldn't play him against the Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns anyway.

There’s no masking this – Wilson had a rough rookie campaign in the NFL. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts, he finished 32nd or 33rd in passer rating, QBR, net yards per attempt, DVOA and EPA. So the numbers were obviously no bueno.

With that being said, look at the tape and focus on the final eight weeks after Wilson returned from a PCL sprain. He was responsible for eight touchdowns against only two turnovers. He had a much more defined pre-snap plan and his ability to process information got a lot quicker.

There are two things to look at here, where he’ll be set up for success this upcoming NFL season:

First, the Jets finished second-to-last in adjusted games lost according to Football Outsiders. Wilson was without his top two receivers for the majority of the time and the Jets had to re-shuffle the O-line, while injuries in the backfield were a big factor as to why they ran the ball less than any team in the NFL. That, along with a banged-up defense that finished last in yards and points allowed, put extra pressure on the rookie quarterback.

Secondly, Wilson was comfortably last in EPA versus man-coverage and took seven more sacks than anybody else in the NFL when facing (25). That’s despite facing the 18th-most man-coverage snaps. You could argue that he’s at fault to some degree, but looking at the tape, those receivers simply did not win within the first three seconds. That meant he had to hold onto the ball and try to create something, which is where we saw some impressive plays from him.

The arm talent pops off the screen and we’ve seen him excel at fitting the ball into tight windows in the red zone. His ability to anticipate where to go against zone coverage was highly impressive and he has that innate feel for rushing angles, knowing how to extend plays.

He has his top two receivers from a year back and the Jets drafted Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson 10th overall. Wilson was arguably the toughest route-runner to deal with in the class and should do a lot of damage after the catch as their X. They also selected Breece Hall from Iowa State in the second round to form a dynamic one-two punch at running back. They completely overhauled their underwhelming tight-end room, signed a Pro Bowl guard in Laken Tomlinson and recently replaced the once again injured Mekhi Becton with a long-time veteran in Duane Brown.

Wilson has added “healthy weight” to be more sturdy inside the pocket. He has an underrated elusiveness to add some big scrambles, he has the weapons to attack down the field and there’ll be less pressure on him. He will be able to effectively run play-action and having guys to consistently beat man-coverage will result in some big plays.

You could probably get him in your last couple of picks in one-QB NFL fantasy leagues.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to check out the full video and feel free to head over to halilsrealfootballtalk.com for more of my work!