NFL fantasy diamonds for 2022 - Running backs

The NFL pre-season is well under way for all 32 teams and it's time to think about the fantasy draft. I wanted to give you some of my favorite targets in drafts at every position (other than kicker).

So just for reference – I primarily play in half-PPR leagues, with one quarterback. If you play Superflex, the whole strategy changes. And thinking of the best ball formats, you may be looking at players known for major spike weeks over guys with more consistent production.

I tried to offer names from both categories because I believe in building rosters that way in re-draft formats.

In this edition, we will talk about the running backs:

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams

I don’t believe the average fan realizes how awesome Javonte Williams was during his rookie NFL campaign. Funnily him and veteran Melvin Gordon carried the ball exactly 203 times in the 2021 NFL season. Gordon scored twice as many touchdowns, while both finished with just above 900 yards on the ground. However, the rookie caught 15 more passes for over 100 additional yards and it’s the advanced stats that were really impressive.

Williams forced 63 missed tackles on 203 rushing attempts (according to PFF), which was just three short of the NFL’s leader in that category, Jonathan Taylor. Taylor carried the ball 129 additional times, and 14 other players did take more handoffs altogether. In fact, the rookie’s missed-tackle rate of 31 percent was the highest mark since Marshawn Lynch in 2014.

He has incredible contact balance, packs a nasty stiff arm and just runs with incredible determination. Having run almost exclusively zone and some power concepts in college, there’s room for Williams to improve his pacing and ability to manipulate blockers. This will help him maximize the running lanes and build up momentum, which makes him very hard to stop. Another year in the system will be huge for him.

In terms of the passing game, there’s a new coaching staff in place, but generally they already trust Williams for protection and he averaged 7.3 yards per catch. This was despite hauling in passes 0.6 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average. There have been some good numbers historically for RBs playing alongside Russell Wilson and there are several signs of an uptick in production with increased work.

Having a legitimate quarterback who is at his best pushing the ball down the field should lead to a lot more two-high coverages and light boxes for Williams to run against. This, along with a bunch of space underneath as a checkdown option if Wilson can’t let it go.

The Denver Broncos did bring back Melvin Gordon on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. But they let him test the open market, and looking at that number compared to how much he earned last year, and listening to all the reports out of Denver, Williams should get the bulk of the snaps. Williams could have a top-five upside at the position. So getting him with the second/third pick in your NFL fantasy drafts could be a tremendous move. He has actually slid a few spots recently.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL in the Baltimore Ravens' final preseason game ahead of the 2021 NFL season. However, this was by far not the only injury that the team was dealing with. The top-3 RBs on that roster missed the entire season and were dealing with multiple injuries on the O-line. Lamar Jackson was out for the final five games and overall the Ravens were number one by a wide margin in adjusted games lost (to injury), according to Football Outsiders.

Why is this relevant? Well, a lot of the arguments out there about the uptick in pass-play percentage for Baltimore, yards per carry, etc. They don’t take into account what that team wanted to be offensively.

Looking at the 2019 and 2020 NFL campaigns, the Ravens were easily number one in total rushing yards (as the only team above 3,000 in each of those) and YPC at 5.5. A lot of that has to do with Lamar being a dynamic space player himself, but he also opened up nice lanes on the inside give, as teams had to account for him pulling the ball. Dobbins was particularly impressive in the chances he was given.

Dobbins battled for carries early on as a rookie in the 2020 NFL season. However, the flashes he showed combined with Mark Ingram missing time with an injury, got him onto the field for extended time. That year, Dobbins averaged six yards per carry and from week eight on, he was the RB12 in fantasy, despite only averaging 12 touches per contest.

He was already the primary goal-line and passing down option as a rookie and didn’t fumble the ball once. Dobbins has the acceleration to be a threat to the edge on toss plays and swing passes, but he also showed the ability to be more patient between the tackles and make subtle moves in tight areas. He was thus able to bleed out runs.

The Ravens got back All-Pro level left tackle Ronnie Stanley, upgraded at center and right tackle and diversified their portfolio at tight-end. Along with Mark Andrews, they have one of the best blockers at the position in Nick Boyle, who is back in the lineup. They also have two rookies who can be threats catching the ball on the move, added to a healthy Lamar Jackson drawing eyes.

They have a healthy and upgraded defense to help them stay ahead in contests and stick with game-plans that emphasize controlling the clock. Dobbins remains the likely option if they are down and in faster-paced situations and there’s so many factors that should have people excited.

I understand the risk here, but that’s already baked into his ADP, and I’m more than willing to take it for my likely FLEX.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard

Call me an Ezekiel Elliott hater, but this is the second straight year I heavily want to bet against him and go with Tony Pollard's talent. I understand at this point it's almost become this hipster opinion that Pollard should take more touches off Elliott, but I don't mind riding that wave. I believe Pollard is a much more dangerous and useful player, outside of pass-protection.

In the 2021 NFL campaign, Pollard beat Elliott by a significant margin in several metrics. This included yards per carry & yards per catch, PFF rushing and receiving grade, elusive rating and yards per route run.

And it's not just a direct comparison. Pollard also set career-highs in rush attempts and receptions, as well as yards per for both facets, with 6.2 yards per touch and well over 1,000 yards despite not playing in two games.

Since the Dallas Cowboys regretfully handed Elliott that $90million contract, his total per-game production and efficiency have declined in all three NFL seasons. But the Cowboys have insisted on keeping him as a focal point of their offense. We just heard Jerry Jones harper on that mindset once again, but at some point the coaching staff of Mike McCarthy (who already had to answer questions about job security at initial press conferences due to the Sean Payton reports) and Kellen Moore (one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL) will have to put the ball in the hands of the players who will help them win.

Elliott should still maintain a role as an early-down and short-yardage runner with how well he can set up blocks and defenders, along with some with 6-man pass-pro reps. But his physical tools have diminished, leading to a career-low three rushes of 20+ yards and a broken tackle on worse than every 26 carries last season. Pollard makes this offense so much harder to deal with.

His explosiveness can rip off 10+ yard runs frequently, he can threaten the edges of any NFL defense and create flow that way to set up misdirection. His elusiveness in space exposes leverage advantages in the passing game, where we saw Elliott get tackled for no yardage on flat routes routinely. He can also be used as a check-down option when Dak Prescott comes down to him after reading out some deep route-combinations. Pollard opens things up so much for them and puts defenses into conflict.

Last NFL season, Pollard was RB28 in half-PPR format. He's even going slightly behind that. That's despite his ever-increasing involvement in the offense, his efficiency was screaming for more opportunities. The statistical anomaly of Pollard registering just two offensive TDs in the 2021 season remains, despite his productivity. That's bound to increase in an offense that has been top-two in situation-neutral & overall pace all three years under Kellen Moore. Getting him as a weekly flex option is a no-brainer.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce

Trust me on this one, I struggled with listing Dameon Pierce here. I want people to stay quiet on him, keep his ADP low and then just draft him in the double-digit rounds of every single one of my fantasy leagues.

There are several misnomors around the Houston Texans' running game and their backfield situation. First of all, there’s no denying that Houston's game was very underwhelming in 2021. They finished dead-last in the NFL with just 83.6 rushing yards per game and an underwhelming 3.4 yards per carry. They only cracked 100-yards in three games.

Secondly, their snap share and touch distribution at the RB position was a mess in the 2021 NFL campaign. Their top five backs handled 147, 99, 99, 53 and 42 touches. There was very little consistency throughout the year, they added and cut names and basically you couldn’t put any of those in your lineup.

Finally, the offense as a whole had a tough time moving the ball and didn’t put it in the paint often enough. Their 16.5 points per game were the third-fewest in the NFL and only seven of those were contributed by the RB position.

Here are my counter-points to that. The Texans got back a Pro Bowl left tackle in Laremy Tunsil, brought over A.J. Cann from Jacksonville, who's a much better run-blocker than pass-protector, and they drafted the biggest mauler at guard in the draft in Kenyon Green from Texas A&M. So expect the unit to be at least average.

As far as the offense goes as a whole, Davis Mills isn’t entering the NFL season as a third-round pick who should sit behind Tyrod Taylor and not get any reps. Instead, he's the unquestioned starter who has a chance to establish himself as the long-term option.

Pierce is a superior talent to anything they had on the roster last year as the second pick of day three in the NFL draft. He was heavily underutilized in Florida this past season, but his efficiency was off the charts. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry and 11.4 yards per catch, scoring on 16 of his 119 total touches. He led the FBS in PFF rushing grade and with a missed tackle rate of 0.39 per attempt.

Rex Burkhead, who led this backfield in touches, is still there, but he averaged only 4.2 yards per touch. They did bring over Marlon Mack from Indy, who is a solid player, but he was basically shelved by the Indianapolis Colts last season and has yet to show he’s back from that ruptured achilles.

I believe Pierce has all the skills to be an every-down back in the NFL. He's got the power to run through tackles, the wiggle to make people miss after the catch and the punch to neutralize blitzers on third down.

Let's just not talk too much about him, so people don't snatch him away from me in drafts!

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier

We’re getting to some really deep sleepers here, talking about another rookie, this time from the fifth round of the NFL draft. I don’t quite see it shaking out as a largely undrafted fantasy option in terms of opportunities to produce.

Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis was a disappointment in the NFL and fantasy football last season. He only had a good 600 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage despite being healthy for all 17 games. However, he was going in the 6th or 7th round of fantasy drafts, while Tyler Allgeier is barely being drafted in fantasy leagues.

Looking at how Atlanta used that position, other than Davis' 138 carries, the rest of the true running backs on that roster combined for just 89 attempts. Cordarelle Patterson finally had a breakthrough season as an offensive player, a swiss-army knife who could motion in and out of the backfield and create big plays. Patterson pretty much split his production as a rusher and receiver equally, with close to 1,200 total yards and 11 TDs.

The Falcons did bring him back on a two-year, 10.5-million dollar contract. So it could be a sign of things to come and maybe Arthur Smith is the one to unlock this guy. But his 153 carries from 2021 aren't anything you would call a workhorse, and even if he comes close to that number, there's plenty of opportunities now available with Davis out of the mix. The Falcons should be more run-centric without Matt Ryan under center.

It's the second year of Arthur Smith installing this inside/outside zone-based rushing attack. Whether they have Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder in the lineup, they create similar challenges for opponents in terms of what they can do, keeping the ball on zone-read concepts or bootlegs, slowing down backside pursuits and opening up cutback lanes.

So there's a lot to like in terms of where this ground game is headed altogether. There's a pretty clear path for this fifth-round rookie to establish himself as a prominent early-down rusher in the NFL. The only actual contenders for touches are Damien Williams and along with Quadree Ollison. Williams was a Super Bowl hero for Kansas City, but that was a good two-and-a-half years ago. This past NFL season, he only touched the ball 56 times in 12 games for Chicago as their RB3. Whereas Ollison has struggled to stay healthy and has only touched the ball 49 times in his three years as a pro.

Allgeier, over his last two seasons at BYU racked up over 3,100 yards and 36 TDs on 6.4yards per carry. I really like how he fits into this 1-cut type of system. He has good acceleration as he plants that outside foot, the way he runs with his pads out in front and pulls his knees up high through contact, to give that Falcons offense some attitude. Last season, with the Cougars, well over 70% of his rushing yards came after contact.

Patterson will remain a featured weapon because of the way they embraced his skill-set in the 2021 NFL season. But Allgeier could easily lead them in carries and while not as many of them will be explosive, the 4.6 he ran at the combine does not reflect what we saw from him with several breakaway runs.

Unless I've loaded up on running backs, this guy will be a target in the final rounds of all my leagues.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to check out the full video and feel free to head over to halilsrealfootballtalk.com for more of my work!