Second- and third-year NFL players ready to break out in 2021: Defense edition

Non-rookie prospects primed for a breakout year i
Non-rookie prospects primed for a breakout year in 2021
Linebacker - Zack Baun
Linebacker - Zack Baun

Linebacker – Zack Baun

One of the surprising prospects who fell in last year’s draft was this Wisconsin linebacker/edge rusher, who I personally had as my 30th overall prospect and I could have easily seen go at the end of the first round, but instead he stayed on the board all the way until pick 74 overall.

While the right fit for him was a bit of a question mark, there was a lot to like about his game – the ability to elude blockers in the run game, his speed as a pass-rusher and then also some of the plays he made in coverage when standing up.

He really offered a versatile skill-set coming out of Madison, which we became familiar with during Senior Bowl week when he was put in some tough situations for an outside linebacker who primarily went forward in college as he was asked to cover tight-ends in man, but more than held his own.

The big discussion point was where he would fit best and which teams could take advantage of what Baun brings to the table. As it turns out, many teams didn’t feel great about how they could use him, until the Saints decided to stop the madness and bring in a really good football player in the third round.

At 6’2”, 238 pounds, I evaluated Baun as an off-ball linebacker on base downs who would then come down to rush the passer in longer-yardage situations. Despite New Orleans not having the best options at MIKE, the rookie would not fit that spot, since he doesn’t have your prototypical measurements and his strengths lie in playing more in space, to go with being able to play on or off ball.

He is the player on this whole list with the lowest amount of total snaps this past season. He recorded just 12 total tackles, no sacks, quarterback hits or passes defensed, playing only eight percent of the defensive snaps (82 total). However, he did manage a season-high 22 snaps on defense in Week 17 and then 19 in their Divisional Round loss to the division-rival Buccaneers, in which you actually saw Tampa Bay make a bit of a run, when they didn’t put the rookie LB out there for most of the second half.

I believe Baun has earned himself more playing time, thanks to some solid work he did on 54 percent of special teams snaps, and shown the coaching staff enough to carve out a role for himself. With the Saints using another third-round pick this April on Ohio State’s Pete Warner, who will step in right in the middle, to keep Demario Davis at WILL and have Baun as their hybrid SAM backer, I’d expect more personnel diversity, especially with the Bucs and Falcons likely using heavy amounts of 12 personnel.

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By NFL standards, Baun is certainly a little undersized for a full-time edge defender. The Saints primarily put him on the strong side of their 4-3 under fronts, where he was lined up outside the tight end.

As an on-ball defender, Baun is excellent at landing his hands and held his ground really well against those big traditional Y types, while being able to yank them to the side, once he feels them lean in too much.

He is then quick to disengage and wrap up the legs of ball-carriers trying to run through the C-gap and gets involved on a lot of tackles late (in comparison to the amount of time he is on the field for). Standing up, he displays good pursuit and has the speed to run down ball-carriers to the edges.

It may look a little too aggressive from the backside, which could open up cutback lanes for running backs with the appropriate vision, but he’s a big plus in not letting ball-carriers get out to the sideline. I was so impressed with Baun going up against Rob Gronkowski in that Divisional Round game, setting the tone at contact in the run game and sticking with him whenever they were matched up one-on-one.

That is the most impressive part about his game at this young age, considering the limited amount of man-coverage snaps in college. Sure, he has also always shown the speed to bail out quickly and he is rapid in identifying guys released out to the flats, as well as chasing them down, but having to actually turn his back to the quarterback and match up with guys is a different deal.

As I mentioned at the beginning, we did see glimpses of it down in Mobile, but it is still surprising how sound Baun is with landing the outside hand underneath the shoulder pad of the tight end and feeling the route develop that way, to go with the athleticism to make stay in his hip-pocket.

You saw him bang into those guys and stick with them across the field on multiple occasions as you go through the tape. Of course, he is also still an asset in the pass-rush department, where he has good speed to threaten offensive tackles in their sets, and then he has a devastating spin to counter off that.

His get-off and ability to reduce their near shoulder can create problems for blockers, even if he doesn’t bring much of a power element in that regard.

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I still believe there are some limitations to what Baun can do in more of your typical edge defense spot and stand-up linebacker roles. He showed that he can absolutely hold his own against tight-ends in the run game, but big tackles gave him issues, because he simply doesn’t have the bulk to anchor down. And from an off-ball alignment, he doesn’t have a ton of experience reading plays between the tackles, in case they want to have him stacked up over the guard in nickel packages.

However, if allowed to play the appropriate role of more like an overhang defender or matchup piece against backs or tight-ends, to go with letting him get after the ball on some third downs, I believe he can become a playmaker for this group.

What I do believe we’ll see more of is Baun lining up in one of the interior gaps and either getting involved in a stunt or bailout, which they already did quite a bit with Alex Anzalone in 2020. I don’t envision him playing more than two-thirds of the snaps in that type of hybrid position, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make a major impact when he is out there.