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Moneyline underdogs are some of the best value in NFL sports betting. Finding the right teams to wager on (as with any sports wagering) is tough, but nothing beats a straight-up win where you take the moneyline underdog straight up without relying on the points spread.
Week 7 of this brand new column series was only a mild success (see record below) regarding moneyline underdog plays, but the marathon mentality over the sprint attitude is key here to end the NFL season in the plus units category.
5 Moneyline underdog plays for NFL Week 8
#1 - Chicago Bears +173 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 3-4 Bears host the 49ers who are 2-4. While both teams are struggling, the 49ers began the year with loftier goals. Injuries have significantly affected both teams this season, and both teams seem to have trouble finding ways for their prized rookie quarterbacks (Justin Fields and Trey Lance) to develop as well as succeed.
The playoffs may be out of reach soon for both the Bears and the 49ers, but expect the underdog home team Chicago Bears to upset the 49ers, who are suddenly not scoring as easily. The Bears are also offensively challenged, but with head coach Matt Nagy possibly out due to a positive COVID test, the Bears should find some traction behind quarterback Fields as he tries to establish some chemistry with wide receiver Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. The moneyline pick is at play here.
#2 - Detroit Lions +159 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The 0-7 Lions host the 2-5 Eagles in the battle of the bottom-ranked NFC teams. While both teams are struggling to get any winning streak going, the Lions are a tough lot.
Other than blowouts against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers, Detroit have hung in with the Los Angeles Rams, the Minnesota Vikings, the Chicago Bears and the Baltimore Ravens. They haven't been good enough, but look for the Lions to get their first win against the Eagles. At +159, the underdog Lions' moneyline price is appropriately set with regard to their similarly struggling opponent.
#3 - New England Patriots +197 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots’ 3-4 record does not take into account the close losses they’ve had to two top teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. They won against lesser opponents and hung with the big dogs (with the exception of the Week 1 upset loss to the Miami Dolphins).
Against the 4-2 Los Angeles Chargers, expect them to also hang with the upstart Chargers and get a straight-up win. Taking the Patriots moneyline as an underdog is a small risk play at that price.
#4 - Carolina Panthers +145 at Atlanta Falcons
The Panther’s 3-0 start quickly fizzled once running back Christian McCaffrey was out due to a hamstring injury. Now at 3-4, Carolina have to take on division rivals, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons, who are slowly but surely carving their way back into playoff contention.
While both teams are middle-of-the-road to bottom-ranked defensively, the underdog Panthers should find some success against the Falcons this week, especially if quarterback Sam Darnold gets the message after his benching to execute better. It's a lower price, but the Panthers moneyline would be a good play in this matchup.
#5 - Shoot your shot upset of the week: Green Bay Packers +235 at Arizona Cardinals
Retroactively speaking, last week’s SYSUotW was the Cincinnati Bengals +220 moneyline underdog win over the Baltimore Ravens. Thank you, Ja’Marr Chase! For entertainment purposes only, the SYSUotW’s criteria is a moneyline underdog play at a +200 or more price.
This week, we take our shot with the Green Bay Packers visiting the red-hot and undefeated 7-0 Arizona Cardinals, who showed a bit of a chink in the armor against the Houston Texans early on before pulling away completely. The Cardinals have met every challenge this season and beaten some good teams like the Los Angeles Rams and the Cleveland Browns. The potentially Davante Adams-less Green Bay Packers represent one of their tougher matchups to date.
Look for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to spread the ball around and rely (and involve more) on running back Aaron Jones to keep the improved Cardinals’ defense on their heels -- who will be without star defensive end J.J. Watt due to shoulder surgery.
Week 7 results: (2-3 +0.90 units)
NFL Moneyline underdog Year-to-date: (2-3 +0.90 units)
Shoot your shot upset of the week YTD: (1-0 +220)
*Each individual play is 1 unit
