Why San Francisco 49ers second-year quarterback Trey Lance will break out in 2022

Trey Lance has had an interesting start to his NFL career. Zach Wilson emerged as the front-runner for the second overall pick in the 2021 draft. So there was a lot of mystery about who the San Francisco 49ers were targeting. They traded a couple of first- and third-round picks to move up nine spots. They ultimately went with Trey Lance, who wowed scouts at North Dakota State with his wild talent. He combined for 42 touchdowns and no interceptions as a true sophomore.

Looking at the Bison system in terms of moving the pocket in the bootleg game, he has shown that he can make big-time throws in that environment. Not to mention what he could add as an 1100-yard rusher.

Still, with just under 200 career passing attempts in college, it was clear that veteran Jimmy Garoppolo would start the 2021 season. Garoppolo seemed like he would have to do something drastic to lose the job.

Lance was inserted in the red-zone in week one against the Lions and threw a touchdown on his first NFL pass. Lance ended up starting two-and-a-half games for San Francisco and carried the ball seven additional times as a package-player. Overall, he completed 41 of 71 passes for 603 yards and five touchdowns versus two interceptions. Along with 38 carries for 168 yards and another score.

Here are five reasons why Trey Lance will have a breakout season in 2022.

#1- The San Francisco 49ers are moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Even coming off an NFC title game appearance, it seemed like the 49ers were ready to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers have maintained for most of the offseason that they are moving forward with Trey Lance as their starting quarterback. This can only mean one thing for Garoppolo.

Trade talks were heating up in March, but once Garoppolo underwent shoulder surgery, those rumors started to disappear.

Still, the 49ers have recently granted the quarterback permission to seek a trade and speculation is now rife. Garoppolo is now linked with the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks and also the Atlanta Falcons.

With Garoppolo out of the way, Trey Lance will be the number one quarterback in San Francisco and will have the opportunity to prove himself.

#2- Trey Lance showed promising signs in 2021

Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers

Lance started two-and-a-half games in year one and surprisingly played in the second half of week four’s matchup with the Seahawks. The rookie produced nine first downs and two touchdowns on 25 combined passing and rushing attempts. This was despite being thrown into the fire after Garoppolo put up one touchdown on 23 pass attempts, with one of those ending in a brutal interception.

In his first official start the following week at then-undefeated Arizona, Lance saw three of his passes dropped despite being right on the money. But if the 49ers defense had been able to stop the Arizona Cardinals with just over four minutes left, they would have had a chance to put together a touchdown drive. This would have sent the game to overtime.

The most promising signs, however, came in another fill-in spot in the penultimate game against the Houston Texans. Their offense produced 416 yards and they won by 16 points. Lance himself had a positive EPA of 0.172 that day, which if averaged over the season would have ranked behind only MVP Aaron Rodgers (0.175).

Also Checkout:- Trey Lance Parents

When kept clean without pressure, Lance had the NFL’s highest yards per attempt. He also had the second-highest average depth of target and the 11th-best quarterback rating. But when under pressure, his yards per attempt took a nose-dive to 45th overall (4.8 yards) and a quarterback rating in that same range.

#3- Trey Lance has tremendous ability

San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals

You can look at this being a feast-or-famine track record. Lance’s game was fairly inconsistent, but in today’s NFL you need players who can create explosive plays. He has no fear of hanging in the pocket to make those big throws down the field, unlike his predecessor (only Jalen Hurts held onto the ball for longer than Lance’s 2.6 seconds).

Analyzing the two interceptions the rookie threw, both came off heavy play-action. He overthrew Travis Benjamin on a 20-yard stop route (versus Arizona) whilst running up into the pocket. He also missed the defender on a throw for George Kittle (against Houston). He probably should have had another one on the post route later in that Texans game. But even that one, where he released the ball flat-footed and got hit in the face, he still managed to put it 50 yards downfield from his launch point.

San Francisco clearly wanted to attack deeper down the field with their play-action game off option run action. They would often motion Kyle Juszczyk across and had him secure one edge, off which they ran Shanahan classics, such as the double swirl concept.

Lance can absolutely drill throws between the second and third levels, creating velocity without having to strain a whole lot. He doesn’t shy away from fitting balls towards one shoulder of his receivers, even if there’s a defender all over the other one. He is also willing to let it fly if defenses don’t respect the deep threat, instead of always blindly trusting that the crosser will be open.

#4- He has the legs to make big plays

San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals

When it’s not there at all, Lance can move around and allow guys to adjust their angles or turn those into secondary routes. He is twitchy with his movement inside the pocket. He runs up to the line of scrimmage with his eyes up to still fire the ball down the field. But he can also make one quick move and beat linebackers towards the sidelines as he darts through.

The dimension he presents as a runner adds a new element to an already dominant rushing attack. We saw Shanahan adapt more college play designs. Not only did they run more RPOs, but they also called up some PROs. The quarterback decides based on how defenses react, whether to get the ball to a skill-player in motion or take a lane himself. Additionally, they ran it out of a split backfield with Deebo Samuel and Kyle “Juice” Juszczyk to either side of Trey.

#5- He will improve on weaknesses highlighted last season

Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers

Looking at their zone versus man splits, Lance had issues versus man-/match-coverage, with a passer rating of just 69.1. However, it sky-rocketed to 139.3 against zone principles. When he was able to wait out concepts and then could fire the ball into open windows, he was really impressive. But anticipating pressure pre-snap still needs improvement.

Lance didn’t seem particularly comfortable sitting inside the pocket, too often running himself into trouble. This is something he’ll have to work on with his coach, eliminating some of that unnecessary movement. This led to accuracy issues and some wobbly passes instead of setting up YAC opportunities, for an offense that heavily relies on it.

Most of his issues are easily correctable, and the positives he brings to the table far outweigh his weaknesses. He went from a one-year starter in the FCS to now probably the most creative offensive play-caller in the NFL.

Obviously, Kyle Shanahan has done a great job of maximizing what his quarterbacks can do. Looking at the guys who have had success under him, all of them were veterans who had time to engrain themselves into the system. Having to learn such an expansive and word-heavy offense would have been a challenge.

That’s not even taking into account how he could transform this already tremendous rushing attack. With the plus one he presents in terms of box counts, it gives Shanahan even more creative options. They will have a tough time surpassing a championship game, but this offense could be a lot more exciting to watch.