NFL: Top 5 MVP Candidates

The NFL MVP award will almost assuredly go to a quarterback.The NFL season only has two more weeks to go, Pro Bowl participants have just been announced, and it is time to take a scan through the league and see who should be crowned the MVP. Now, with two weeks left in the season, the winner is definitely not decided, but there are only a few candidates who have a realistic shot at winning the trophy. There will no doubt be shuffling of the order for the award over these last two weeks, especially if someone has a huge closing kick, and with multiple players vying for this award, it will be interesting to watch how the race shakes out.The MVP, by nature of the game nowadays, is most assuredly a quarterback award because they have the ball in their hands every game and affect the game more than anyone else. With that said, there have been other performances by non-quarterbacks that are worthy of MVP consideration, including Antonio Brown, who combined with Ben Roethlisberger, have combined to lead one of the best offenses in the league, Luke Kuechley, who, if not for three missed games would have a credible case of being on the list as the nominal defender on the list, and Adrian Peterson, who has carried a subpar Vikings offense to a 9-5 record. You could also mention JJ Wattt with these names, but none quite had the impact of the five that make this list.

#5 Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson has rode a ridiculous five game stretch into the MVP discussion.

If we had looked at this list after nine games, Russell Wilson would have been no where to be found. At that time he was piloting a struggling Seahawks offense and had 10 touchdowns to go with seven interecptions, but then some sort of switch flicked on Wilson has led the Seahawks on an offensive tear that has seen them score no fewer than 29 points in a game. Even more impressive has been Wilson’s own personal stats where he is averaging 284 yards per game with 9.6 yards per attempt and 19 touchdowns to zero interceptions. He’s also chipped in nearly 30 yards rushing per game.

Wilson’s rise in game has been one of the biggest storylines over the last month and has put him rightfully in the MVP conversation. However, he is a tier below the other quarterbacks because he was so pedestrian through the first nine weeks of the season which will make it nearly impossible for him to rise much higher in the voting. But if Wilson can keep up his very impressive play, he might be taking home a more important trophy come February

#4 Josh Norman

Josh Norman has been shutting down everyone that crosses his path this season.

DeAndre Hopkins 5 catchtes (11 targets) – 53 yards 0 tds. Dez Bryant 2 (8) – 26 yards 0 tds. Julio Jones 7 (10) – 88 yards 0 tds. Odell Beckham Jr. 6 (9) – 76 yards 1 td. Thats four of the top 10 receivers in the league held to a collective average stat line of 5 catches (9.5 targets) – 60.75 yards and .25 tds when they have been primarily covered by Norman this season. Compare that to their average stat line of 6.3 catches (11 targets) – 87.1 yards and .6 tds and you have a corner who has helped neuter receiving options in a game geared towards making catching the ball as easy as possible.

Now just looking at catch, target, and yards in a game for a receiver can be noisy, we don’t always have the necessary coverage information to assign blame, the defender doesn’t usually follow the receiver every where and their can be cases where the receivers beats the defender but drops the ball, but watch the games and Norman has an enormous impact.

He is the leading pass defender on the number two pass defense in the league and you can consistently find him making plays, as evidende by his 4 interceptions, 2 return touchdowns, and 16 passes defensed. Some people would reserve this defensive spot for JJ Watt, but as dominant as he can be, I can’t say he has been more valuable than Norman this year.

#3 Tom Brady

Tom Brady is having another stellar season.

What is there to say about Tom Brady at this point? He just keep chugging along playing just as good as any quarterback in the league, beating the NFL’s weak DeflateGate suspension and NFL defenses on a week to week basis. Even as Brady has seen weapon after weapon drop around him [Dion Lewis (season), Julian Edelman (5 games), Rob Gronkowski (2 games), LeGarrette Blount (season)], he has continually made the plays that have the Patriots sitting at 11-2 and atop the AFC.

He is leading the league with 35 touchdown passes and 4,405 yards despite sometimes never having an above average pass catcher on the field. He also has a rush offense that hasn’t produced consistently all year, allowing teams to load up on the pass, yet all of it hasn’t mattered. Even with a dimished ability to throw the ball downfield with great accuracy, Brady has been dominant by morphing into the best short game passer in the league, able to hit his pleothra of underneath targets time after time. He consistently picks up chunks of yardage and has the Patriots poised for another deep run into the playoffs.

#2 Cam Newton

Cam Newton has been passing, scrambling, scoring, and dancing his way to an MVP caliber season.

Superman has truly been super this year, putting up over 3,900 yards of total offense (passing and rushing combined) and 40 touchdowns, more than making up for the lack of pure passing stats that he has. Due to his team’s lack of weapons in the passing game and the strength of their run game, Cam has facilitated between the dreaded “game manager” to out right stud, but every step of the way, he has made play after play for the Panthers.

Even though he doesn’t throw as much as you would expect from a typical MVP quarterback, he makes each throw count with a td every 13 pass attempts.

Cam has buoyed his passing with the ever present threat of his running, putting up over 500 yards and seven touchdowns and giving the Panthers a goal line threat unlike any other in the league. Cam is a quarterback whose stat line doesn’t pop like a traditional quarterback’s, but when you watch the game, you just can’t take your eyes off of him and the impact he is having game after game. He is constantly making plays and if he ends the season like he has played the last few weeks, he very well could be the MVP.

#1 Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer responded to a torn ACL last year to have a career year.

Carson Palmer, a player many thought was done when he decided to retire in 2010 than play for the Cincinnati Bengals, is now my front runner for the MVP award this season. He currently leads the 11-2 Arizona Cardinals and their number one passing offense, as they have assaulted the league with Bruce Arians downfield passing attack. He currently leads the league in yards per attempt, is third in the league in passing yards and touchdown passes, and is second in quarterback rating.

He is also the top-rated quarterback by Football Outsiders advanced rankings and ESPN’s QBR.

But what Palmer has done is even more than all the stats that back up his candidacy, he directs coach Arians high risk, high reward offense with beautiful aplomb. The Cardinals vertical passing game could bury a lesser quarterback and lead to many turnovers and missed opportunities, but not Palmer.

He has been deathly accurate which is a must for any vertical passing attack to be successful, and has played with the reckless abandon that makes this passing attack unlike any other in the league. For this reason, I have Palmer as my narrow choice over Cam Newton.