To bowl first or not to bowl first - the quandary that could decide Delhi Capitals' IPL 2022 play-off fate

Ever since its inception, the Indian Premier League (IPL), almost every year, has laid the foundation for a new fad to emerge. It has ranged from pinch hitters at the top to maximizing the powerplays. There was also a trend in between where IPL teams took games deep and ended it with a flourish.

In 2022, sides haven’t really unfurled an entirely novel fad but they’ve bought very quickly into the philosophy of winning the toss and bowling first. It happened for much of the T20 World Cup in the UAE in 2021 and, with dew expected to play a similar part, it made plenty of sense too.

But with India’s infamous heat and summer setting in, there have been slight tweaks to the return on that particular investment. While in March, only one outfit (Rajasthan Royals) won while batting first, only two have won while bowling first in May. So, there is a bit of evidence suggesting that the tack is changing.

As far as the Delhi Capitals (DC) are concerned, they’ve remained committed to what they think would give them the best chance possible of qualifying for the play-offs. Rishabh Pant has, unlike many other captains, won a major share of his tosses and on each occasion has opted to field first. In the opening couple of weeks of IPL 2022, that was meant to directly translate into victories.

Nothing of the kind happened for DC. They tasted victory before reverting to the mean. They lost a game, looking out of sorts before returning to winning ways. If anything, the tosses were unwittingly taking attention away from what has been a pretty inconsistent campaign.

Now, though, with only a handful of games remaining, maybe the time is ripe for DC to shelve whatever worked at the start of the season and concentrate on what will fetch them the best possible results at this stage. And according to the numbers, that certainly won’t happen if they continue winning the toss and bowling first.

So far, there have been seven occasions when they have won the toss. Each time, they’ve fielded first. But that has only resulted in three victories – a pretty poor conversion rate considering the batting muscle they possess.

The problem, however, isn’t that their batters haven’t been able to haul down massive totals. It’s that their bowlers are usually conceding a few more runs than what would be ideal on any surface – something that came to the fore against the Chennai Super Kings and has become a recurring theme this season.

Of the seven times they’ve bowled first, they’ve restricted the opposition to a total of less than 160 only twice (against the Kolkata Knight Riders [at Wankhede] and the Punjab Kings). They’ve hunted down those totals comfortably and have shown that this approach can indeed work.

In five other instances, though, they’ve shipped more than 170 runs. Against the Mumbai Indians in their opening game, it worked as Axar Patel and Shardul Thakur masterminded an incredible heist. Since 27th March 2022, DC have not won a game when they have chased more than 170.

In between, they’ve batted first on three occasions and have won twice – posting totals in excess of 200 on both occasions (against KKR and the Sunrisers Hyderabad).

They also have an irresistible first-innings force in David Warner at their disposal, who as things stand, has the third-highest average batting first in the history of the IPL. And Rishabh Pant, who strikes at more than 150 (150.72 to be precise) and averages 35.73 in the opening essay of an encounter. Rovman Powell, too, has shown that he can demolish any bowling line-up without the pressure of an asking rate hovering above his head.

Hence, a case can be made that their current batters are probably more suited to batting first and setting a total. When that is put in conjunction with their bowlers’ contrasting numbers (bowling first as opposed to bowling second), it makes even more sense.

View the IPL 2022 timetable here.

Should DC bat first if they win the toss?

Shardul, a bowler whom they broke the bank for, has a very ordinary record bowling first. He averages 29.27 and concedes runs at an economy rate of 8.75 in the first innings. In the second essay, he averages 23.08 and gives away runs at an economy rate of 8.61. The economy rate might not be too different but the average and strike rate (20 as opposed to 16) indicates that wicket-taking is also a bit of an issue.

So far in IPL 2022, DC have picked up more than six wickets when bowling first only twice, hinting that teams have usually taken them apart in the middle overs and at the death. DC’s middle overs economy rate is the third-worst this season and their death-overs economy rate is only the fifth-best across all teams.

Akin to Shardul, Axar and Kuldeep Yadav also seem to enjoy when they have a target to defend. Axar averages 25.83 when bowling second, while Kuldeep averages 19.37. Their corresponding first-innings numbers are 31.66 and 23.87, respectively.

Record of the Capitals' bowlers in different innings

The counter argument would be that Anrich Nortje and Mustafizur Rahman have far more superior records bowling first. But with the line-up DC intend to play, it would be very difficult for them to accommodate the pair. Thus, the bulk of the load will have to be shouldered by Axar, Kuldeep and Shardul, meaning that DC’s modus operandi should revolve around what optimizes their talents.

And, according to the statistics, it seems that that would be winning the toss and batting first. Not just because of the increased effectiveness of their premier Indian bowling troika, but also because DC have the batters to back up that philosophy.

In 2022, DC have been a side that has lost the crucial moments and has handed over the initiative at the worst possible junctures. On quite a few occasions, it has been because they’ve either thought too much about contingencies and ignored the solution that is staring them in the face.

Over the past few years, DC haven’t been averse to changing their tack and adopting something different if it gives them a better chance of winning. With Ricky Ponting and Shane Watson around, pragmatism and game awareness will never be a problem for DC.

From that standpoint alone, it seems ironic that a team like DC that concentrates so much on match-ups and numbers hasn’t been able to arrive at this conclusion yet. It isn’t very late now, too.

They have three games remaining and if the law of averages is a thing, Pant will probably lose all tosses henceforth and render this discussion moot. But if he wins, everything points towards DC batting first. It’s not what they would’ve had in mind. It’s not even the fad that has engulfed the rest of the IPL.

However, this may be just what DC need to turbocharge a play-off dash. There’s no guarantee that this will definitely work. As things stand, though, the other approach hasn’t worked wonders either.

Surely this can’t be worse.