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The NFL Draft is just days away and everyone is abuzz with speculation from sources. While many think the picks will fall a certain way, you can never predict the wild outcomes of the weekend. With that said may I present to you my top five bold predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Five bold predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft
1] The New York Giants draft a quarterback in round one
No longer can the Giants brass sit back and watch Daniel Jones torpedo another season. Yes, the Giants have a terrible offensive line. Yes, they also have some of the worst receivers in the NFL. But they also have Jones, who was massively overdrafted (6th overall in 2019), playing with a bad neck.
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His six games played in 2023 are not only concerning but’s the reason that New York is moving on. NY can get out of Jones’ contract after this season with around $19 million in dead cap cost. That’s not ideal, but it’s the going rate for dumping someone off your roster who isn’t welcome anymore.
Many would argue that the Giants should invest in a better offensive line, as they allowed the second most sacks in NFL history last season (85). You could also point to their putrid WR group, which would be massively upgraded by selecting Malik Nabers at six overall. But the cost of getting this high in the draft for a QB is often too great. At six, I suspect the Giants will pull the trigger on J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan.
2] Only four quarterbacks are selected in round one
The betting line on QBs in the first round is set at 4.5, meaning I’m taking the under. We will have Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy go off the board in round one. I’m not sold on Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix as NFL starters, and I don’t know if teams are either.
While it is tempting to get the fifth-year option on these players by taking them in round one, you also are paying a premium for a developmental QB – but both players are already old! Penix turns 24 in May, and Nix is already 24. There’s no way I’m spending a first-round pick on a guy that age, who I have to develop for a year or two. They’ll more likely come off the board in round two.
3] Tight End Brock Bowers slides to the Cincinnati Bengals
I’ve seen a lot of buzz surrounding this year’s top TE. Could he land with the Chargers at five overall or the Jets at ten? Neither of those is a smart play. The Chargers have many holes to fill on a horrendous defense.
The Jets are in a one-year window and need to keep their AARP-aged quarterback on the field for more than four plays. They need offensive line depth because both of their starting tackles are 33 years old, and one of them, Tyron Smith, has missed more games than he’s played in the last four years.
Instead, Bowers lands with the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow at number 18. The Super Bowl window for the Bengals is still open, and Bowers becomes Burrow’s security blanket underneath. This is a home run for fantasy and real-life football.
4] The Buffalo Bills trade up for an elite WR
After trading Stefon Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency, the Bills have to re-work their receiver room. Sitting at 28 currently, the Bills can absolutely land an impact receiver. But is that player going to command the football and play outside like Diggs once did? I don’t think so. I see the Bills using several of their 10 picks to move up into the top ten to get the last of the Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odzune tier.
5] The Vikings get a QB, but not in round one
Everyone thinks the Vikings are going to take a quarterback with one of their two first-round picks, except me. At 11 overall, they will have the opportunity to select my favorite player in the class, Terrion Arnold, who could start day one for them at the corner.
The Vikings are also in a prime trade-down spot for teams who want to come up for an edge defender or get the next-best tackle on the board. If I’m the Vikings, I’m taking Arnold at 11, trading my 23rd overall pick for second and thirds (they don’t have any picks in those rounds). Use your newly acquired second-rounder on Nix or Penix and have them battle with Sam Darnold in camp.
