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Bijan Robinson is expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. He's considered the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018 and that is extremely high praise. If he pans out, he'd be among Barkley, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb and others to be the best running back in football.
That's rare and it's difficult to predict. Some of those prospects weren't first-round picks and others, like Barkley who went second overall, were extremely desirable. Combine results often determine how good a running back will be.
Unlike other positions, the raw attributes translate better to running back than other spots. Speed is valuable and it doesn't matter much if a running back has poor hands or route running. Strength is good and it's not as important how it's shown.
40-time is key for running backs. If they get open space, how often are they going to leave defenders in the dust? Will they get caught from behind? 40-yard dash time indicates this.
For Bijan Robinson, his 40 time is strong. He ran the combine 40 in 4.46 seconds, which is fast for any position on the field. Compared to Derrick Henry's 40 time, Robinson looks even faster as Henry ran 4.54, which is still wildly impressive for a strong running back of his size.
Should Bijan Robinson be a first-round draft pick?
Despite conventional wisdom suggesting that running backs are the least valuable position on the field and highly dependent on the line in front of them, many teams still value them. They haven't quite stopped going in the first round even if they possibly should.
In 2022, no running backs went in the first, though. Does this suggest that the trend will continue in 2023? Probably not. While Breece Hall and Dameon Pierce were good, they weren't prospects on Bijan Robinson's level.
Mock drafts have him going as high as 10th overall. That might be a stretch, but to fall from 10 to out of the first round would be surprising.
Is he worth that high of a pick? Probably not, since the vast majority of running backs are only as good as the line they run behind. Will he be a first-rounder? Probably, since teams are salivating at capturing one of the best running backs in recent memory.
