Move over Patrick Mahomes - Is Justin Herbert the next big QB from the AFC West?

When Patrick Mahomes hit the scene, it felt like the Chiefs were going to rule the AFC West for the next decade or longer.

However, just a few years after Mahomes' first pass in the NFL, the AFC West has a shiny new quarterback with a Mahomes-esque ascendance. With the Chargers now in the lead in the division, the question must be asked: is Justin Herbert the next big thing in the NFL?

Is Justin Herbert moving past Patrick Mahomes?

Justin Herbert, a second-year quarterback, has already reached Mahomes-like status after about 20 games. His rookie year was better than Mahomes' since Mahomes had to sit behind Alex Smith for every game except in Week 17. In terms of rookie seasons, Herbert's was about as good as it gets. In his first year in the NFL, Herbert threw for 31 touchdowns and ten interceptions.

After such an explosive season, many NFL pundits expected Herbert to fall back down to earth. Instead, the young quarterback has kept pace to be roughly in line with his rookie season. After four games, he has nine touchdowns and three interceptions. This puts him on pace to have 38 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Not only is he on pace to pass his rookie season, but he's only recently heated up.

In his first two games, Herbert had two touchdowns and three interceptions. In four games, Herbert has nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Over the last two games, he's thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions. If he keeps pace, he won't pass Mahomes' second-year total of 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, but he'll have more total touchdowns than him at the end of two years.

There's a long way to go, but the Chargers have already beaten Mahomes and the Chiefs in their own building. If they can beat them at SoFi Stadium, the Chargers would only need to make a playoff run to beat Mahomes' second-year production when looking at the end result.

While Mahomes may have the edge in head-to-head comparisons, the Chargers' more complete team may win out in head-to-head battles this season. In other words, the Chiefs need to fix their defense to give Mahomes a better shot going forward. Until that happens, the Chargers' ninth-ranked defense combined with Herbert's solid play could put the Chargers ahead for quite some time.

With more wins comes more publicity, and if the Chargers continue to win, they will receive more attention than the Chiefs. Herbert may have the edge this season, possibly going forward into 2022 as well.