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Sam Howell has a lot of tools desired for a modern quarterback. He's also one of the few quarterbacks you could make a case for as his college offense held him back from showcasing his skills. He may have a higher ceiling than most draftniks have cited.
Sam Howell Profile
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Sam Howell Combine Results
Scouting Report
Sam Howell was a 4-star athlete coming out of high school who originally committed to Florida State before signing with North Carolina. Howell was a 3-year starter for the Tar Heels and won the ACC Rookie of the Year along with having the fourth-most passing touchdowns in FBS (38 passing touchdowns) in his freshman year.
Since then, Howell has improved his passing and running game, but statistically, he has taken a step back in terms of passing. In Howell’s final year as a Tar Heel, he racked up 3,056 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and had 9 interceptions. He also improved as a dual-threat kind of quarterback this past season. The 21-year-old quarterback registered 828 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this past year compared to his freshman year where he only had 35 rushing yards and 1 touchdown.
Strengths
Sam Howell was capable of reading defenses at North Carolina and was expected to do so as well. It is not uncommon for Howell to progress through all his reads instead of forcing passes into double or triple coverage. The play designs at North Carolina did not always make him read the entire defense, but he is said to possess the IQ to be able to read the entire defense in the NFL.
Howell possesses good confidence out on the field that allows him to take control of the huddle and lead the team. He has good accuracy on short to medium ranged throws, and has the ability to step up in the pocket or scramble outside the pocket to buy some extra time on his throws. The versatile quarterback has also improved as a runner and is capable of taking off and making plays with his legs.
Weaknesses
Howell does have a tendency over throwing his receivers on his drive throws at short to medium ranged distances. This is due in part to him muscling his drive throws and not always finishing his follow through with his throwing motion. For Sam, his deep balls are decent but an area for improvement in terms of his accuracy and timing. His deep ball can be described as making the receiver work for the ball and his slow release allows defenders to get into position to make a play on the ball.
Trait-Based Projection
Sam Howell has good accuracy, decision-making skills, and the ability to extend the plays with his legs. However, he is not the type of quarterback to be in control of the ball the entire game and would benefit from having a system that takes the pressure off of him.
Since Howell does have a slow release and is not extremely accurate on deep throws or drive throws, he would most likely succeed in the NFL with a vertical passing scheme. The young gunslinger would be able to rely on slot receivers, on short to medium ranged throws, and his running back while having the opportunity to create big plays with wide receivers running deep routes.
Analytics Corner
One of the best tools analysts have to help separate quarterbacks, who’s production had been propped up by “variance”/elements that are not likely to transition to the NFL is “Clean Pocket Production”. Simply put, how well or poorly a quarterback performs under pressure (at any level) is littered with chance. Whereas, how that same quarterback performs in a clean pocket is much more predictive.
We say all this because Sam Howell had a 90.6 PFF Passing Grade when NOT PRESSURED (or clean). This put him above the 75th percentile among his peers. This bodes well for the quarterback prospect, especially one that is trying to shed the “all-too-easy-comparison” with Mitch Trubisky, the king of “production being propped up by volatile situations”.
Sam Howell’s 31.8% Sack to conversion rate, on the other hand, is troubling. Those that study the game of football understand sack stats (NOT Pressure) are far more a function of the QB than the OL. Hence, taking a sack on almost a third of his pressure is a bit concerning.
Probably the most alluring stat that is drawing the analysts in is Howell’s sneaky rushing ability that really shined this past season. Believe it or not, according to SIS, Howell led all QBs last season in total points added (their flagship advanced stat) when rushing the football.
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