Don't be surprised if the LA Lakers don't make the playoffs

File Photo of the LA Lakers.

“The hype on this team and the anticipation of this Los Angeles Laker team is so off the charts, actually I think even more so than I’ve ever seen it, even when we played,” said Magic Johnson at the start of the season.

At the start of the season, the entire world was in awe at the superstar roster the Lakers had assembled in the off-season. Adding Dwight Howard and Steve Nash to the core of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace seemed like a sure-fire recipe for a championship. For anyone who has watched Gordan Ramsey in action, you will know that having a sure-fire recipe is not enough, you still need the correct process to put it together.

Honestly, you don’t want him too.

Fast forward to today, the Lakers are standing at 15-20. That’s only good enough for the 11th spot in the uber competitive Western Conference. The 8th and last playoff spot in West is held by the Portland Trailblazers, who are at 19-15. At this point in time, we need to ask ourselves if the Lakers are going to make it to the playoffs this year.

Injuries have played a part in their misfortune. Steve Nash missed 24 games due to a broken left fibula which he suffered in the Lakers’ second game of the season. The point guard is the most integral member of the squad, the helmsman who steers this ship. And he isn’t as assured as he wants to be.

“I think about it every day (not making the playoffs). We’ve got to make some serious ground up here quickly. We’re in deep, and we’ve got to find a way to scratch and claw and get to 48 wins,” Nash said.

For the last five seasons, it has taken a Western Conference team at least 45 wins to make the playoffs. Barring last season’s lockout shortened season that it, but the Jazz who made it on 36 wins last year were on pace to 45 in a full sized season.

With the way things stand right now, the Lakers would have to go 30-16 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins. If that seems like too much of a stretch, consider that even getting 45 wins is no guarantee to make the playoffs.

The last five teams which made it to the 8th spot in the West weren’t just at 45, their combined win % was .584, that’s 48 wins: 46 (Grizzlies in 2010-11), 50 (Thunder in 2009-10), 48 (Jazz in 2008-09), 50 (Nuggets in 2007-08) and 42 (Warriors in 2006-07). For the Lakers to do that is not the easiest prospect as they face the seventh toughest schedule in the league the rest of the way. Their upcoming opponents have a combined win percentage of .513.

If it’s some consolation to the Lakers fans, the toughest schedule belongs to the Portland Trailblazers who face teams with a combined win percentage of .539. They are still on pace to get to 45 wins. The Wolves, Warriors and Jazz are also facing tougher schedules.

One of the major reasons the Lakers have been slipping has been their defense in away games. They are giving up a NBA leading 106.9 points per game on the road. And as Kobe has himself said, they are an old team. They can’t run and gun as much as the young teams can. So they need to slow the pace on offense and settle into their half court sets with ease in order to capitalize on their experienced squad.

Bryant should look to share his responsibilities.

“I don’t know if we’ve had five games where all our players are playing. When you have injuries like that, you can’t play enough games together to get chemistry. Am I upset that we might not make the playoffs? Of course. To panic? No, we’re not going to panic.”- Lakers executive vice president of basketball operations Jim Buss.

Their current record is by no means a reflection on the magical starting five which we had all envisioned. Someone or the other has perpetually been out of action. Howard, Hill and Gasol are all injured right now. Howard, even when he’s not been injured, has not been at 100% this season. His back is still bothering him. And the Lakers are going to face a lot more bothers in the coming months. Taking a look at their schedule, here are some teams to whom the Lakers will probably lose (all dates are in USA’s time zone, these matches will fall a day later in India):

January

Oklahoma City Thunder (Jan 11th)Miami Heat (Jan. 17th)Memphis Grizzlies (Jan 23rd)Oklahoma City Thunder (Jan 27th)

There’s four losses (22-24 overall). So now they’ll need to go 23-13 over the next 3 months to make it.

February

Miami Heat (10th.Feb)LA Clippers (14th.Feb)Denver Nuggets (25th.Feb)

Not too bad. We’re assuming that the Lakers will win all the other matches. Now they need to go 13-10.

March

Oklahoma City Thunder (5th March)Indiana Pacers (15th March)Golden State Warriors (25th March)

(44-30). Again, assuming the Lakers win all the other matches.

April

Memphis Grizzlies (5th April)LA Clippers (7th April)Golden State Warriors (12th April)San Antonio Spurs (14th April)

Very generously if you assume that the above teams are the only ones the Lakers will lose to, then they will make it to the playoffs. And looking at the way they have been playing, they are going to lose to a lot more teams than just the ones mentioned.

This Lakers have a $100-million payroll. This season has been a disaster and even if they miss the playoffs, their lottery pick goes to Phoenix as part of the Nash trade. “I don’t think they can make the playoffs,” said TNT analyst Chris Webber “Of course they should be able to do it, but the parity in the Western Conference is some of the best right now.”

This season can turn out one of two ways. It can stand as a long standing example for the rest of eternity as the prime example that merely assembling the best possible team on paper won’t guarantee you a championship, well in this case, it won’t even guarantee a playoff spot.

Bryant will forever be labeled as a ball hogger who was part of a diamond roster which turned out to be coal. Not that it will diminish Kobe’s legacy too much, the man has earned his stripes without a shadow of doubt in this league. But he will be the man on whom the crosshairs will be aimed at.

The other way this season can turn out, is the Lakers actually making a turnaround and scraping their way into the post-season. Once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen. That possibility is increasingly unlikely because of the reasons I’ve outlined above. There is a eerie parallel here. About a decade ago a couple of hall of fame players joined the Lakers in the hopes of winning a championship. Karl Malone and Gary Payton were beyond their prime when they took to LA. We all know what happened then.

The Lakers would need to start clicking if they stand any chance of making the post-season.

It seems that the basketball gods actually take umbrage at the Lakers thinking they can just buy a championship. Dwight Howard and Steve Nash are not so much at the tail end of their careers. Nash may be inching towards retirement but he is still a better point guard than Payton was when he became a Laker long ago.

Based on the numbers, it seems highly improbable that the Lakers will make it to the post-season. But the fact is that they are still so ridiculously talented that anything can happen. It will be a beautiful turnaround if they can make it to the post-season and it will require collapses from other teams to reduce the competition in the Western Conference. But its far more likely that the Lakers don’t make it to the playoffs this season.