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The Detroit Pistons didn’t expect to be in this position last summer. After Chicago, Indiana and Atlanta parted ways with their best players, it seemed like Detroit could grab one of three vacated spots in next year's playoffs. But in reality, Indiana stayed in the postseason, and the other two spots were claimed by Miami and Philadelphia, while the Pistons missed the playoffs for the eighth time in nine years.
The desperate trade-deadline move for Blake Griffin didn’t help them revive their season, neither did it help save Stan Van Gundy's job. The former NBA finalist coach finished his four-year stint as Detroit's coach and president of basketball operations. While the latter is still vacant, his place on the bench was quickly taken by the 2018 NBA Coach of the Year, Dwane Casey.
Detroit will enjoy a full season of the Griffin-Drummond duo and a good chance to claim the spot potentially vacated by Cleveland in the playoffs. However, they have Reggie Jackson's questionable health to depend on and an otherwise unimpressive roster. Coach Casey turned Toronto's bench to the best in the league; barring a similar transformation, the Pistons will have trouble achieving their goals for the season.
Here is an overview of the team for the 2018-19 season:
Offseason Activity
Detroit's biggest change this summer was a managerial one. After four years and just one playoff series to his name, Stan Van Gundy and the Pistons parted ways. Van Gundy didn’t manage to duplicate his success from Orlando, where he made the playoffs in each of his five seasons as coach, including an NBA Finals appearance.
His replacement, Dwane Casey, had his share of disappointment last season. After finishing the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference, Casey's Raptors were swept by the Cavs in the second round of the playoffs, despite their home court advantage. Nevertheless, Casey is the reigning Coach of the Year and is a great pick up for Detroit.
On the players' front, the Pistons had a quiet summer, adding wing Glenn Robinson III on a 1-year/$4.08M contract, veterans Zaza Pachulia and Jose Calderon on 1-year/minimum deals and 2018 draftees, Bruce Brown Jr. and Khyri Thomas. No substantial departures for Detroit either. Main players leaving are Anthony Tolliver (Minnesota) and James Ennis (Houston).
Squad Weaknesses
One thing that should concern Dwane Casey entering this season is his bench. Detroit's backups averaged the tenth worst point average in the NBA last year with 33.8, shooting just 43% from the field. However, it might get worse for the Pistons, since two of their top bench performers, Tolliver and Ennis are no longer with the team. Because none of their summer signings is enough to cover for that, Casey will have to work hard to get the most out of his bench this year.
The Pistons didn’t get enough from the free throw line too. They were 25th in the league in free throw attempt rate and free throw percentage. As proven in Game 1 of the 2018 NBA Finals, free throws can be very crucial. Therefore, it's tough to go places when you don’t get to the line enough and/or shoot well from it. It should be one of Detroit's focal points in training camp.
Team strengths
In accordance with Pistons' tradition, Detroit's main strength is their defense. They held teams to 103.9 points per game last year, the eighth lowest in the NBA in 2017-18. They also created the second-least opponents' free throw attempts and allowed the eighth-least offensive rebounds per game. In this year's draft, they traded for two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Khyri Thomas, adding to their already tough defense.
Another field Detroit will have an advantage in is rebounding. Drummond was once again the league's best rebounder, with 16 per game and since Griffin's addition, the Pistons were sixth in the league in rebounds. Controlling the boards is crucial for a team that was 23rd in the league in field goal percentage and allowed the fourth most three-point attempts last year.
Defense will play a big part in Detroit's game this year, but even if it will be as good as last year's, they will need to be better on offense as well.
Opportunities and Threats
Detroit failed to capitalize on the fall of some Eastern Conference playoff teams last year and their window is even narrower this time. The only playoff team that looks to have a drop is Cleveland, but Detroit is the frontrunner for their spot.
Charlotte dumped Dwight Howard because of his salary, even though he had a solid season, Porzingis will be out for most of the Knicks' season, the Nets target next year's free agency and the others are more focused on rebuilding. Even without improving a lot this summer, the Pistons look good enough to make the playoffs in the East and end their poor form in recent years.
What might hurt their chances to do that is their health. In the last two years, Reggie Jackson missed over 40% of Detroit's games due to a variety of injuries he suffered in that span. Blake Griffin's health is an issue too, of course. In three years, Blake hurt his left quad, right ankle and both knees.
If Detroit's key players manage to stay healthy, they are looking good for the playoffs, mostly thanks to their weak conference.
Predictions for the Season
Detroit is almost exactly the same team that finished four wins away from the playoffs last year, except for the fact they have Blake Griffin on the roster from day one of the regular season, assuming he is healthy. Nevertheless, it does look like it will be just enough to make the postseason this time.
Their games won't be a lot of fun to watch for the most part, due to their good defense and limited offense. They will dominate the boards thanks to their two big-men, but when these two are off the court, Detroit will have a problem scoring.
I predict they will finish with 40-42 wins, making the playoffs from the eighth seed. Andre Drummond will win Defensive Player of the Year, but it won’t help the Pistons in the first round, where Boston or Toronto will probably knock them out in five games, or even fewer.
