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After finishing as the runner-up twice in three years, and being voted among the top ten for each of his first five years in Houston, James Harden finally took home his first MVP award in 2018. Harden was the clear choice to win the award after a season in which he grew as a leader, defender, winner and overall teammate while also elevating his offensive game to levels we have never seen in the NBA. His 60-point triple-double on January 30 was the first and remains the only such stat line in NBA history.
Harden's incredible 30.4 points and 8.8 assists per game left no doubt that he was the worthy MVP winner, but elite stats and polarizing performances are only part of winning the award. Team success, public opinion, and overall narrative all matter equally.
While not everyone agrees that team success should matter when deciding a winner, the voters think it does and that's not going to change. Before Russell Westbrook in 2017, no player had won MVP from a team which finished below second in its conference since Michael Jordan in 1988 when his Bulls finished third in the East; history favours winners.
Public opinion and narrative also play an important part in the award. Kevin Durant is unlikely to ever win MVP in Golden State because the perception of his narrative is that he took the easy way out and rode the coat tail of another team's success. Westbrook, on the other hand, had the edge on Harden in 2017 because his narrative was positive and the public loved what he was able to achieve even after losing his best teammate.
Harden then had the edge on LeBron James in 2018 after being snubbed for MVP twice in three years. The more these opinions flow on social media, the more it influences the voters.
Based on the criteria by which the voters have subtly abided for decades, these are the lead candidates for MVP in 2019.
Group D: Candidates, but only if their team improves rapidly
14) Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns is hard to judge currently given all the drama surrounding his soon-to-be former teammate Jimmy Butler. He can be scratched from this list entirely if Butler isn't traded out of Minnesota, but if Butler's trade request is granted then it opens up the possibility for Towns to dominate.
The star center has shown little improvement since he has entered the league, but he is still young and this could be a year in which he switches himself on defensively, plays smarter basketball and takes over games the way he has proven he can. Towns is still just 22 years old, he clearly still has room to improve despite stagnating slightly over the last 18 months.
If Butler does indeed get traded and Towns responds by improving in all the areas he has been criticised - specifically the areas Butler has publicly addressed such as being soft - then he will catch the eye of the voters and become a leading candidate.
He averaged 21.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game last season (with Butler) compared to 25.1 points and 12.3 rebounds per game the prior season (without Butler). Can he lift his numbers to new heights when Butler inevitably leaves Minnesota? It's likely, but that won't get him in the MVP conversation unless the Wolves take a big step forward.
13) Damian Lillard
Lillard's Trail Blazers finished third in the West last season before being swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Pelicans. What can Dame do to push himself past his Western Conference guard rivals and establish himself as the game's premier player?
After finishing third in the conference last year and putting up career-best numbers it's hard to see him climbing any higher, but it's not impossible. The equation is pretty simple for Lillard: lead the Blazers to more wins than either the Rockets or Warriors. If he can get his team to a top-two seed then he will be hard to overlook as a possible MVP winner, assuming his output remains steady.
It's tough to see this happening given there are at least four superior guards in the western conference alone, but it's possible we haven't seen the best of Lillard and the Blazers.
12) Nikola Jokic
Jokic is the best player on a team with no true superstar. The Nuggets have an excellent core, but they need Jokic to step into a dominant superstar role if they are going to continue climbing the Western Conference standings. Per Basketball-Reference, Jokic is one of just five centers in the history of the NBA to average better than 18 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in a single season.
The other four are Wilt Chamberlain (he did it four times), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Bill Walton, and DeMarcus Cousins - pretty good company for the former second-round draft pick. Jokic and Chamberlain (twice) are the only ones to achieve those same numbers with the assist qualifier increased to six.
Can Jokic translate these numbers into winning 55+ games? If he does he will be firmly in the MVP discussion. The Nuggets are currently one of five or six teams fighting for three or four playoff spots; Jokic will rightfully enter the discussion if he leads them to the top of that pack, and maybe even win MVP if he takes them higher.
11) Victor Oladipo
There was a reason he was a number 2 pick in 2013, albeit in a weak draft. Oladipo put up good numbers for a young player on a bad team in Orlando, then became an afterthought when he appeared to have gone backwards during his stint with Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. Now, finally on a team with good coaching and management, Oladipo has entered the start of his prime as a budding superstar.
If Oladipo plays the same thrilling brand of two-way basketball he did last year and leads the new and improved Pacers to a top-two seed in the East - meaning they will have to win more games than two of Toronto, Boston and Philly - he will be firmly in the conversation. He has the attractive stats (23.1 points per game on 47.4% shooting and led the league with 2.4 steals per game last year), he has the narrative (number 2 pick who was labelled a bust after his unsuccessful year with the Thunder), he has the media hype (honestly who doesn't love Oladipo? From experts on ESPN to average joe Twitter users, Oladipo was almost never criticised or slandered last season).
Mix those three factors with a top-two seed and he will be one of the lead candidates. Securing the top-two seed will be the hardest part in an Eastern Conference which finally has more than one team contending for a spot in the finals.
Group C: Contenders with a destructive narrative
10) Stephen Curry, 9) Kevin Durant
It is impossible not to group these teammates together. They have already won three MVPs between them, and would probably have more had they stayed rivals instead of joining forces. As former MVPs who are still at the peak of their respective talents, there's no hidden message as to why they can win MVP. They have already done it, of course, and they have the tools to do it again.
By sharing the load offensively, they already have a huge dent in their chances. Factor in the immense universal hate for the Warriors (specifically for Durant as most fans are still angry with his decision to join the Warriors), the amount of games and fourth quarters of blowout wins in which they will be rested, and the incredibly high standards they have set for themselves through consistent excellence, now suddenly it's tough to see either one of them making a compelling enough case to claim the MVP despite being two of the best three or four players in the league.
Durant is a slightly better candidate than Curry right now, given Curry's injury history which resurfaced last season and restricted him to 51 regular season games. Should either of the pair be sidelined for an extended period, the other will have a golden opportunity to shoot to the top of the MVP race.
Groub B: The genuine contenders
8) Joel Embiid
Philly trusted The Process, and now here they are with The Product. Obviously, Embiid has to play at least 70 games to be considered for MVP, but let's not dwell on that too much, everyone knows his injury concerns. Forget about how many games he has missed, look at how many he has played; how many players have been an all-star, made an all-NBA team, and made an all-defensive team after just 94 games, and at less than 29 minutes per game?
Embiid can score in a variety of ways, he's a mismatch for just about every defender in the league thanks to his size and unique skill set, he routinely makes smart passes out of the post when appropriate, and he's one of the best defenders in the league. He has all the talent to be an MVP, he has the numbers, and he has the right situation with a generational talent playing point guard. Only injury will take Embiid out of the MVP conversation.
7) Kyrie Irving
Irving ended up missing a quarter of the 2017-18 season with injury, as well as the Celtics' entire playoff run, so you would be forgiven for forgetting his blistering start to the season. He was electric during the Celtics' 16 game win streak in October and November, and his polarizing play style makes up for whatever he lacks in basic counting stats compared to other candidates.
Irving is a proven superstar and champion, he's adored by fans and the media, he plays in a big market, and he leads arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference. With Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier all rapidly improving, Gordon Hayward returning, and Al Horford anchoring the defence and leadership, Irving is poised to dominate as both a scorer and a distributor. The last four MVPs have been won by ball-dominant point guards with a deadly scoring ability, can Irving make it five in a row?
6) Anthony Davis
Davis has been putting up MVP numbers on both ends of the floor for his whole career. From ages 21-24, his third through sixth year in the league, he has averaged 26.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.5 blocks. He is just entering his prime and he has already showcased all the skills of an MVP.
Are the Pelicans good enough to launch Davis towards a legitimate MVP run though? Just like most of the Western Conference, their ceiling is probably third behind Houston and Golden State in the standings. He finished third in MVP voting last year on a sixth-seeded team, so it's not impossible to imagine him winning the award outright if he can push the Pelicans to the upper echelons of the west.
5) Russell Westbrook
The greatest stat-sheet-stuffer since Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson has a chance to add a second MVP to his tally in 2019. The novelty of Westbrook's statistical heroics seem to have worn off, however; averaging a triple-double in 2016-17 earned him MVP over an equally deserving James Harden, while the same feat - albeit with fewer points per game - wasn't enough to have him in the conversation last year.
Westbrook's path to another MVP is clear after the message that was sent last season, he must carry the Thunder to more wins. If the Thunder can surpass the Rockets or Warriors to finish top-two in the Western Conference standings, then Westbrook will probably take home the MVP trophy provided his stats remain steady.
The only way to catch up to the Rockets and Warriors will be vast improvement by the Thunder, and that will stem from Westbrook's performance. OKC can't expect last year's conference finalists to slide down to their level, they must improve and threaten to take a place in the conference finals.
4) Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak looked utterly unstoppable for long stretches last season and there's no reason to expect any different this year. Giannis has added at least four points per game to his season averages each of his five years in the league, and he looks to be finally be reaching his final form of stardom after a wild five years of development.
A supporting cast headlined by Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez is theoretically enough for Giannis to lead this team to the top rungs of the Eastern Conference, while role players such as John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova, Thon Maker, Tony Snell and Ersan Ilyasova give the Bucks one of the deepest benches in the league.
Coach Mike Budenholzer was responsible for the Atlanta Hawks' most successful regular season team in franchise history three years ago, and there's no reason to think he won't replicate that success with an even more talented team in Milwaukee. Giannis is one of the most beloved players and personalities in the league, he will be a lead candidate all year long if the team can stay functional.
3) Kawhi Leonard
Leonard became the forgotten superstar last season as he finished his San Antonio Spurs career on rocky terms. Now in Toronto, Leonard - who finished second in MVP voting in 2016 and third in 2017 - has a chance to claim his first MVP award on a team which may allow him to showcase more of his individual brilliance. The former finals MVP is the best perimeter defender in the league and an efficient scorer who may average close to 30 points per game this season.
The Raptors have been a regular season powerhouse for the last three years, but have fallen to the LeBron James Cavaliers in the post-season of each of those seasons. The expectations on Leonard and the Raptors are extremely high, especially for Leonard after his quirky departure from the Spurs tarnished his reputation somewhat.
The Raptors must finish atop the Eastern Conference standings for Leonard to have any chance of winning. They finished top with DeMar DeRozan as their best player last year, anything lower than top of the East will be too damaging for Leonard's narrative. The Raptors will be fighting Boston and Philly for that top spot, and they will be favourites to claim it if Leonard is playing his best basketball.
Group A - Been there, done that, favourites to do it again
2) James Harden
It comes as no surprise that the reigning MVP is one of the favourites to take home the award again, but repeating the feat is historically difficult thanks to voter fatigue; only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James and Stephen Curry have accomplished it.
Having said that, the voters may still be on side with Harden after the Rockets' heartbreaking playoff run and an off-season which featured plenty of player turnover.
If Harden gels with his new teammates - specifically Carmelo Anthony - and leads the Rockets to the top of the Western Conference standings again, that may be a compelling enough narrative to launch him back to the front of the MVP race over his opponents. He will still need to dominate and entertain on a nightly basis, but that shouldn't be an issue given his steady improvement each year in Houston and his near-perfect chemistry with Chris Paul and Clint Capela.
Anything below top of the west will kill Harden's chances on the spot, as the standards to which he is now held are sky-high. Harden has been a permanent fixture in the MVP conversation since his first day in Houston, he has finished eighth, fifth, second, ninth, second, and first in MVP voting during his six years at the Rockets.
1) LeBron James
The King edges out Harden as my pre-season MVP favourite. James will be looking for his fifth MVP as he starts his new chapter as a member of the Lakers. He hasn't won the award since 2013 despite being a leading contender every year since then, and the standards which the voters set for him might finally have been lowered.
James will struggle to carry the Lakers to a top-two position in the West, but much like Davis and many other contenders in the West, finishing third should be good enough to contend due to the clear difference between Houston and Golden State compared to the rest of the west.
The most intriguing part of James' campaign will be seeing him potentially play as a pure scorer. James has always been a pass-first player who is still able to perennially average close to 30 points per game with historically good efficiency. For the first time ever, he is surrounded by playmakers and will have the chance to play primarily as a scorer.
He will still make jaw-dropping passes, but with Lonzo Ball, Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson surrounding him he will also be on the receiving end of many spectacular dimes. Limited pre-season minutes showed promising signs for James as a scorer on a team which plays with exciting pace and energy. Can James average upwards of 30 points per game on the way to an MVP season? Only time will tell, but MVP voters will surely love seeing James lead the revival of showtime in Los Angeles.
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