2021 NBA Playoffs: 5 Things Milwaukee Bucks need to do to win against Miami Heat in a 7-game series

The NBA Playoffs are mostly set, and the Eastern Conference will give us a thrilling battle in the first round between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat. The teams, who are the third and sixth seeds respectively in the East, met in the second round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs, where Miami shocked league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks in five games.

2021 NBA Playoffs: How can the Milwaukee Bucks avoid a repeat of last year's disaster against the Miami Heat

The Miami Heat's defensive strategy against the favorite Milwaukee Bucks was extremely effective last year, and Erik Spoelstra's team ended up winning the series comfortably.

This season, despite not having the best record in the East for the first time since the 2017-18 season, the Milwaukee Bucks have a different feel and look on the court. Jrue Holiday's addition in the offseason has changed a lot in Milwaukee's style, while two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown great progression as a playmaker.

Moreover, the team has another year of experience playing together, and P.J. Tucker's addition during the season is another boost to the team's postseason hopes. Of course, Khris Middleton will again be essential to the team's success in the playoffs, and he seems prepared.

In this article, we look at five things that the Milwaukee Bucks need to cover in the upcoming seven-game series against the reigning Eastern Conference champion, the Miami Heat.

#5 Establish their style early against the Miami Heat

Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Milwaukee Bucks led the NBA in pace last year at 105, while the Miami Heat were 27th, with 98.3. However, in their second-round matchup, the average pace throughout the five games was at 96, much closer to Miami's style.

This year, the numbers in that regard are similar again, with Milwaukee second and Miami 29th in pace. Therefore, the Milwaukee Bucks will need to establish their style of play early in the series to show that they're not the same team as last year.

#4 Limit Miami Heat's three-point shooting

Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat celebrates a three pointer with Jimmy Butler.

The Miami Heat (40-32, sixth in the East) ranked 19th in three-point shooting in the 2020-21 NBA regular season, with 35.8% of their threes made.

However, the team has had ups and downs throughout the year, and it ended the season with an upward trend, making 39.7% of its threes in the last month of the regular season.

On the other side, the Milwaukee Bucks allowed the second-highest percentage of three-pointers to their rivals this season (38.4%), and Mike Budenholzer's team will need to step up and run Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and others off the three-point line.

#3 Trust three-point shooters

Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots.

In their second-round matchup against the Heat last year, the Milwaukee Bucks made only 32.7% of their three-pointers, and that was definitely one of the differences between the two teams, as Miami made 37.3% of its three-point shots.

This year, the Milwaukee Bucks ranked fifth in the NBA in three-point shooting after shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc. Giannis Antetokounmpo's evolving playmaking ability has definitely elevated the Bucks' three-point shooting this year, and the team had several efficient shooters, headlined by Bobby Portis (47.1%), Bryn Forbes (45.2%) and Khris Middleton (41.4%).

For the upcoming series, the Milwaukee Bucks will have to trust their shooters to step up in the big moments, especially when teams build the so-called 'wall' against Antetokounmpo, who has also shown improvement against the strategy.

#2 Jrue Holiday has to be the main defender on Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler averaged 23.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game in the five-game second-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks in 2020, and he also put up 53/45/85 shooting splits.

Butler led the Heat to a win against the Bucks, and eventually drove the team to the NBA Finals. In order to leave Miami behind and try to put up a deep postseason run, the Milwaukee Bucks will need to put lots of effort into slowing Butler down, and Jrue Holiday is certainly the right matchup defensively.

Holiday was second in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Box Plus/Minus among Milwaukee Bucks' players this year. Giannis would also be a great defender against Butler, but will probably have his hands full with Miami big man Bam Adebayo, who is another huge threat.

#1 Use Giannis Antetokounmpo as a playmaker, but do not force the issue

Giannis Antetokounmpo has run into a 'wall' in the last two postseason series in which the Milwaukee Bucks were defeated, last year against Miami and in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals against the Toronto Raptors.

Antetokounmpo could not find shooters consistently in those series, and he struggled. However, in the 2020-21 NBA season, the two-time reigning MVP (who could be deserving of his third trophy in a row) has shown great progress and his playmaking abilities have evolved. The 2020-21 regular season saw him post a career-high 5.9 assists per game, and his lowest average of turnovers per game (3.4) of the last three seasons.

Giannis has seemingly learned not to force the issue on offense, and he will need to maintain such an approach against Miami. Still, he should not initiate the offense often for the Milwaukee Bucks, as he now has players around who can do so efficiently and help Giannis find his shots inside the paint.

Antetokounmpo also made only 53.7% of his free throws in the second-round series versus Miami last year, and that cannot be the case in 2021 if the Milwaukee Bucks are to advance to the second round. He also showed improvement in that regard this season, as his 63% from the free-throw line last year was upgraded to 68.5%.

Also read: Kia NBA MVP Race: Final Power Rankings - May 17th, 2021