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After being dethroned as the top of their conferences, finishing the regular season with their worst record in four years and struggling through a seven-game series in the conference finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors meet again.
Even though it didn’t go as smooth as we would have thought, this saga continues, as expected earlier in the season, to a fourth straight finals showdown.
The first two exchanges were relatively close ones. In 2015, the Cavs entered the series without Kevin Love and one game in they lost Kyrie Irving too.
Nevertheless, LeBron James by himself managed to carry the team to a respectful six-game series.
A year later, Love and Irving were healthy, but the Warriors just broke the wins record for the regular season and pulled an amazing upset the previous round, coming back from down 1-3 to win the series against the Thunder.
However, it was only the second biggest upset of the playoffs, since Cleveland did the same thing, first time ever in the finals, to win its first NBA title.
Since then Golden State added Kevin Durant, swept its way to a third finals matchup against Cleveland and won the title with ease in a five-game series.
Following this historic playoff run, teams started an arms race in order to compete with the Warriors, while the Cavs managed to drive Kyrie away, went through a midseason roster clean out and are already accused of putting up the worst supporting cast LeBron has ever had.
In order to put up a fight, let alone win it all, they will have to put special emphasis on the following stats.
#1 Golden State third quarter
But these numbers increased even more against the Rockets. The reigning champs scored on average 31.6 points, shooting 54.7% from the field and 54.4% from three. Those resounding numbers were crucial to the Warriors qualification to the finals, mainly because of their poor start in the first half of most games.
If regular season stats didn’t prove it enough, the series against Houston in the conference finals definitely sealed the fact that Golden State is the best third quarter team in the NBA. The Warriors lead the league with 30.2 points, 52% from the field and 43% from three in the third quarter while leading by an average of 4.5 points.
Scoring and shooting averages were significantly lower in the first two-quarters of games in that series in comparison to the third.
The Warriors even lost the first half of the last two "win-or-go-home" games by at least 10 points, only to completely destroy Houston in the successive quarter.
If the Cavs believe they can beat the odds, holding Golden State off in the third quarter is their starting point.
The Warriors won only 14 of 32 games this season, playoffs and regular season, in which they lost this quarter.
Cleveland's best chance to do that is to have fresh legs on the court. Ty Lue needs to consider expanding the rotation in the first half in order to avoid wearing out his players.
#2 Supporting cast scoring
Other than LeBron James, none of the Cavs players has been a consistent scorer. Kevin Love, who is still recovering from a concussion and is questionable for game one, is their only player to score in double digits in the playoffs other than the king. It doesn’t even start to compare to the Warriors' three players with more than 20 points per game.
Kyrie Irving was their second-best scorer last year, and now that his gone the burden falls on their remaining backcourt.
The Cleveland guards' three-point percentage in the playoffs ranged from 21.6% in losses to 41% in wins, almost double.
This is critical for the Cavs offense, which is reliant on three-point shooting. Cleveland has a 32% success rate this season in games in which they scored less than 10 threes.
A big part of the blame is aimed at J. R. Smith, who failed to score from beyond the arc in the first three road games against Boston.
The former sixth man of the year was a consistent perimeter shooter for the Cavs in the previous playoff runs, shooting more than 40% from three.
Another key player in the Cleveland backcourt is George Hill. The veteran guard joined the Cavs at the trade deadline and quickly received a starting role.
Even though he was never considered a great scorer, Hill's scoring will be important in this series. Considering he will not draw much attention from the Warriors' defenders, expect Hill to enjoy many open looks, and he will have to convert at a high rate.
#3 Communicate on defense
One of Cleveland's biggest problems in their series against Boston was poor communication on defense. As ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy put it, "they roll their eyes at each other more than a couple in a bad marriage". In an attempt to defend themselves, Cavs players claimed that the noise from the fans at the TD Garden made it difficult for them to hear each other.
This excuse won't cut it this time. Golden State's off-ball screen scoring is the most prolific in the league by far, and they turned it to one of their trademark plays.
Steve Kerr's down screens in the corner in addition to The Splash Brothers' off-ball movements makes it one of the most lethal weapons in the entire NBA.
Considering Steph's struggles against Houston with his pull-up three point shooting (32.4% in that series, compared to 40.7% in the regular season), we should expect him to look for those open looks off his teammates assists.
Cleveland can't let him have that so easily. Preferably, they should stick to their jerseys and not let them have space. If they switch, they will have to be more aggressive than they showed in the past.
Noise complaint will not be a viable argument in the finals, even though Oracle Arena is probably the loudest arena in the NBA.
But this is not a problem of hearing, it's a problem of concentration. Ty Lue should get his players' head in the game, because eye rolling each other is not a good defensive tactic.
#4 Being smarter with the ball
In the past four years, Golden State led the league in fast-break points, this time with over 19 points-per-game on average, and was one of the top 10 teams in points off turnovers.
This has been a critical part of the Warriors success during those years. But their ability to limit their opponent's in those criteria was also crucial.
In the conference finals, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by more than nine points per game on the fast break in wins. In losses, however, they broke even with Houston, a mediocre fast break team at most.
This should bring the Cavs some hope since they are generally a better fast break team than the Rockets.
Cleveland will also have to cut Golden State's supply of points off turnovers. The Warriors outscored the Rockets by almost 11 points per game off their turnovers when they won.
In games Houston had the upper hand, they outscored the Dubs off their turnovers by more than four points.
LeBron, who is the primary ball handler for the Cavs, had some problems in the turnover region against Boston.
He averaged 5.7 from the team's 14 turnovers per game in that series, each worth a little over a point for the Celtics.
Golden State's conversion rate is even better and LeBron will be responsible for keeping the ball in the right hands.
#5 Getting physical
One key that helped Houston take Golden State to a seven-game series is playing tough and getting fouls. In the games the Warriors lost, the foul total for both teams was 43, on average. In wins, however, the foul total average was only 36.8.
That is a proof that when the Rockets' forced a rough game, they managed to wear out the champions
Cleveland is one of the best foul-drawing teams in the league but is also one of the teams that foul the least.
The Cavs were top 10 in the league in both most fouls drawn and least fouls committed. Nevertheless, the same thing that partially worked for the Rockets worked for Cleveland too.
The Cavs and Celtics averaged 43.8 combined fouls in games LeBron and his crew won. In contrast, in the games Brad Stevens's bunch won, the teams totaled only 35.3 fouls on average.
Cleveland will not stand a chance against Golden State if they start exchanging buckets. Their only chance to win will be in an "ugly" game.
Cavs players, who are not always the most willing on defense, have to start playing with their elbows out. Through the history of this league, teams that lacked on the creative and talented side succeeded only by playing aggressive.
Even though they didn’t show they really want it during the most part of this season, if they truly want to wow everybody and do the impossible, Cleveland will have to live up to their slogan, "whatever it takes".
Guess the Lakers players!
