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After a 5-year reign in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors dynasty came to an end after being struck by a slew of long-term injuries to key players. The Bay Area fans can still feel the pain when Kevin Durant went down in the 2019 NBA Finals. The team's chances of a three-peat became even slimmer when Klay Thompson joined the former OKC Thunder star in the locker room after going down with an injury as well.
Let's take a quick recap of the series that took place right before the 2019 NBA Finals: the Western Conference Finals. The matchup of the Portland Trailblazers and the Golden State Warriors seemed more interesting, as Kevin Durant was out of the series with a calf injury.
What happens when arguably your best player goes down with an injury? Let's remove the best player from each of the 29 other team's rosters. We will be able to come to an obvious conclusion that losing their best player will hurt a team's chances of winning. Not the Warriors, though. Despite Kevin Durant out injured, the Golden State Warriors Warriors swept Portland and ended the latter's season in just four games.
Back in 2017, Kevin Durant joined a team that went 73-9 in the regular season the previous year. It wasn't a case of KD joining a 40-win team and elevating them to the top.
The dominating and unexpected win over Portland led many to believe that Kevin Durant was a luxury and not a necessity. Nevertheless, adding Kevin Durant to a 73-win team pushed the Golden State Warriors from 'too good' to 'unbeatable'.
Five reasons why Kevin Durant's absence may not hurt the Golden State Warriors
Now that Kevin Durant has left the Warriors to play in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, let's take a look at some statistics and analytics to see where the Warriors stand without him on the roster, and five reasons why the absence of Durant would not hurt the team.
#1 Ball Movement
The Golden State Warriors' offence doesn't move as fluidly with Durant in the lineup. Durant's iso-heavy game saps the Warriors of much of the magic that made them so fun to watch in 2014-15 and 2015-16.
Moreover, his game doesn't do as much to elevate everyone around him as Stephen Curry's does. That's why, even over the last three seasons, the Durant-less Warriors performed significantly better than the Curry-less Warriors.
Another point to note is that without Kevin Durant on the court to isolate for himself, the remainder of the Golden State Warriors squad has more freedom to operate.
The Warriors' playing style is dependant on constant off-the-ball movement. Instant screens and quick releases lead to buckets that demoralizes their opponents. This is backed up by the fact that Curry led the league in distance travelled on the court.
Curry, often regarded as the greatest shooter tin the NBA, commands double teams from 30 feet and beyond from the basket. Even when the opponent team manages to get the ball out of his hands, Curry never stops moving. With more than three to four screens set in each possession, Curry and Thompson come off more screens than any other backcourt in the NBA.
#2 Pace and Transition
The Golden State Warriors don't play much isolation compared to when Kevin Durant is on the floor. The Warriors rely on instant screens and quick releases to get an open look.
The one aspect of the Golden State Warriors' play is their increased pace. Kevin Durant is one of the league's most prolific scorers ever, yet his propensity to isolate and get a bucket is something that slows down the Warriors offense. His 34.5 points per game have been clearly useful, yet the Dubs are at their best in transition when the pace is being pushed.
The absence of Kevin Durant has led Draymond Green to be in action more than before, and the latter has delivered every time. Without the constant need to feed Durant, the Golden State Warriors run the offense far more smoothly and are free to operate in any way.
Interestingly, the Golden State Warriors score three times the points in transition with Draymond than with Kevin Durant.
In the Houston's Playoff Series against the Golden State Warriors in 2019, the Warriors played at an average pace of 96.3 possessions per game. A total of 62% of their points were assisted on while the team scored an average of 111.7 points per game.
Compare this to the 2019 Conference Finals when Durant was injured: the Dubs played at a pace of 98.5 possessions per game with 69.6% of their points being assisted on and 113.3 points per game.
The ball moves around more than ever with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. Durant is ball-dominant; his scoring aptitude makes him a constant threat and gives him multiple opportunities to isolate. But it takes away from the system that has made the Golden State Warriors so potent.
#3 The Golden State Warriors thrive defensively without Kevin Durant in its roster
Nearly every Golden State Warriors statistic without Kevin Durant has a higher defensive rating than when the player is in the lineup. That seems unrealistic as Durant has proved himself to be an elite defender with blocks and locking down the opponent's best players.
However, with Durant in the lineup, the opposite team is forced to add a 7' big man to guard him. But with Durant off the roster, the opposite team goes small-ball, a situation where the Golden State Warriors thrive in.
![Defensive Rating (Regular Season) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2020/10/617da-16039887002994-800.jpg)
![Defensive Rating (Playoffs) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2020/10/dbe11-16039888024561-800.jpg)
The offensive rating of the Golden State Warriors without Kevin Durant definitely falls compared to when the player is in the lineup. The absence of a 30 points-per-game scorer does reduce the efficacy of the offense but not so much that the team becomes 'bad'. The Golden State Warriors' small-ball nuclear lineup that evades players and tricks defenders works well in their favor.
#4 The Golden State Warriors have won big games without Kevin Durant in its lineup
After watching the Golden State Warriors beat teams without Kevin Durant, many coaches and players feared that the Warriors could go back to their 2014-15 and 2015-16 style of play - the same game style that led the Dubs to a staggering 73 wins in a season.
In the 2019 NBA Conference fFnals against Portland, that's exactly what Golden State did. They swept their way to a fifth consecutive finals appearance. In the process, the Dubs showed Kevin Durant and the rest of the league that they were just fine without him and could be dominant by switching back to their 'pre-KD' days.
In the 32 season games Kevin Durant missed but Stephen Curry played in during the 2018-19 season, the Golden State Warriors went 31-1. In the six playoff games, the star forward missed but Curry played in, the Warriors went 6-0. That is astonishing.
It seems as though the absence of the 2014 MVP makes no impact on the performances of the Golden State Warriors, all considering that Stephen Curry plays, which leads us to the final point.
#5 The presence of Stephen Curry
No words are enough to describe the impact of Stephen Curry on the game. All the arguments made above supporting the Golden State Warriors' success without Kevin Durant hinged on the presence of Stephen Curry on the roster.
As mentioned earlier, the 38 games, including season and playoffs that Kevin Durant missed, the Golden State Warriors went 37-1, with 6-0 in the playoffs. That happened because of one man on the floor: Stephen Curry.
According to an article in The Forbes:
"Since 2016-17, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Golden State are plus 1.3 points per 48 minutes with Durant on the floor and Curry off. It's plus-12.1 points per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor and Durant off. (Both sample sizes are well over 2,000 minutes)"
Since 2016-17, Curry's box plus-minus is 7.3, and Durant's is 5.8. The combined net rating swing favors Curry 15.9 to 9.2. Curry has comfortably topped Durant in ESPN's real plus-minus in each of the last three seasons.
Even in a blind comparison that features mostly basic numbers, fans took Stephen Curry over Kevin Durant 84% to 16%.
Obviously, box plus-minus isn't the full picture. It's just one piece of evidence. But it backs up all the rest that suggests that Curry simply does more to raise Golden State than Kevin Durant does.
In point three, where we mentioned 'Defensive Upside', the defensive rating always increased when Kevin Durant was off the floor. The only time the defensive rating fell for the Warriors was when Stephen Curry was off the floor as well. And he isn't even a good defender. That just goes to show the impact Stephen Curry has on the Warriors' game.
![Only time Defensive Rating fell, was when Steph was off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2020/10/3d7f2-16039915081223-800.jpg)
The impact of Stephen Curry on the Warriors has been astounding. Let us take a look at +/- of the Warriors per 100 possessions.
That significant drop in +/- shows up when Curry leaves the floor. Stephen Curry, in every situation where Kevin Durant was injured, has shown a higher usage rate and higher scores.
Curry's stats across the statline in every single recorded stat increases when Durant is off the floor. Curry shoots more and better, goes to the foul line more often, has more assists, steals and more rebounds. His FG% and 3P% both increase when Kevin Durant isn't present, and what is unreal is that Curry's minutes remain the same.
To conclude, if you're a Dubs fan, the trade of Kevin Durant to Brooklyn must hurt as the player has delivered some incredible moments for the team. But you shouldn't be too concerned as the Golden State Warriors looks incredible even without him as well.
Guess the Lakers players!
