5 reasons why the absence of Kevin Durant may not hurt the Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant during the 2019 NBA Finals
Kevin Durant during the 2019 NBA Finals

#3 The Golden State Warriors thrive defensively without Kevin Durant in its roster

The Warriors' small-ball lineup is amongst the most feared ones in the NBA.
The Warriors' small-ball lineup is amongst the most feared ones in the NBA.

Nearly every Golden State Warriors statistic without Kevin Durant has a higher defensive rating than when the player is in the lineup. That seems unrealistic as Durant has proved himself to be an elite defender with blocks and locking down the opponent's best players.

However, with Durant in the lineup, the opposite team is forced to add a 7' big man to guard him. But with Durant off the roster, the opposite team goes small-ball, a situation where the Golden State Warriors thrive in.

Defensive Rating (Regular Season) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]
Defensive Rating (Regular Season) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]
Defensive Rating (Playoffs) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]
Defensive Rating (Playoffs) increases with KD off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]

The offensive rating of the Golden State Warriors without Kevin Durant definitely falls compared to when the player is in the lineup. The absence of a 30 points-per-game scorer does reduce the efficacy of the offense but not so much that the team becomes 'bad'. The Golden State Warriors' small-ball nuclear lineup that evades players and tricks defenders works well in their favor.

#4 The Golden State Warriors have won big games without Kevin Durant in its lineup

Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry for the Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Stephen Curry for the Golden State Warriors

After watching the Golden State Warriors beat teams without Kevin Durant, many coaches and players feared that the Warriors could go back to their 2014-15 and 2015-16 style of play - the same game style that led the Dubs to a staggering 73 wins in a season.

In the 2019 NBA Conference fFnals against Portland, that's exactly what Golden State did. They swept their way to a fifth consecutive finals appearance. In the process, the Dubs showed Kevin Durant and the rest of the league that they were just fine without him and could be dominant by switching back to their 'pre-KD' days.

In the 32 season games Kevin Durant missed but Stephen Curry played in during the 2018-19 season, the Golden State Warriors went 31-1. In the six playoff games, the star forward missed but Curry played in, the Warriors went 6-0. That is astonishing.

It seems as though the absence of the 2014 MVP makes no impact on the performances of the Golden State Warriors, all considering that Stephen Curry plays, which leads us to the final point.

#5 The presence of Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry against the Portland Trailblazers
Stephen Curry against the Portland Trailblazers

No words are enough to describe the impact of Stephen Curry on the game. All the arguments made above supporting the Golden State Warriors' success without Kevin Durant hinged on the presence of Stephen Curry on the roster.

As mentioned earlier, the 38 games, including season and playoffs that Kevin Durant missed, the Golden State Warriors went 37-1, with 6-0 in the playoffs. That happened because of one man on the floor: Stephen Curry.

According to an article in The Forbes:

"Since 2016-17, in the regular season and playoffs combined, Golden State are plus 1.3 points per 48 minutes with Durant on the floor and Curry off. It's plus-12.1 points per 48 minutes with Curry on the floor and Durant off. (Both sample sizes are well over 2,000 minutes)"

Since 2016-17, Curry's box plus-minus is 7.3, and Durant's is 5.8. The combined net rating swing favors Curry 15.9 to 9.2. Curry has comfortably topped Durant in ESPN's real plus-minus in each of the last three seasons.

Even in a blind comparison that features mostly basic numbers, fans took Stephen Curry over Kevin Durant 84% to 16%.

Obviously, box plus-minus isn't the full picture. It's just one piece of evidence. But it backs up all the rest that suggests that Curry simply does more to raise Golden State than Kevin Durant does.

In point three, where we mentioned 'Defensive Upside', the defensive rating always increased when Kevin Durant was off the floor. The only time the defensive rating fell for the Warriors was when Stephen Curry was off the floor as well. And he isn't even a good defender. That just goes to show the impact Stephen Curry has on the Warriors' game.

Only time Defensive Rating fell, was when Steph was off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]
Only time Defensive Rating fell, was when Steph was off the floor [Credit: StatsPerform by Henry Ettinger]

The impact of Stephen Curry on the Warriors has been astounding. Let us take a look at +/- of the Warriors per 100 possessions.

The significant drop in +/- when Curry leaves the court
The significant drop in +/- when Curry leaves the court

That significant drop in +/- shows up when Curry leaves the floor. Stephen Curry, in every situation where Kevin Durant was injured, has shown a higher usage rate and higher scores.

Curry's stats across the statline in every single recorded stat increases when Durant is off the floor. Curry shoots more and better, goes to the foul line more often, has more assists, steals and more rebounds. His FG% and 3P% both increase when Kevin Durant isn't present, and what is unreal is that Curry's minutes remain the same.

To conclude, if you're a Dubs fan, the trade of Kevin Durant to Brooklyn must hurt as the player has delivered some incredible moments for the team. But you shouldn't be too concerned as the Golden State Warriors looks incredible even without him as well.

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Edited by Bhargav