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It's that time of the year and here they come once again.
The Portland Trail Blazers hardly did any business in the 2017 offseason, which prompted all the pundits and analysts to predict yet another 5th-8th seed for them with their best case scenario being a second-round loss in the Playoffs. While the Playoffs prediction might still be true, they've definitely overperformed so far with respect to the standings in the West.
For the third year running, the Blazers have gone on a hot streak in the second half of the season to save their campaign and have played competitive basketball with the best of the best in the league. Since January 15th of this year, they've gone 19-5 (including the current 10-game win streak) to propel them to the third seed in the West with a respectable lead of 1.5 games over the fourth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, this isn't the first time the Blazers have peaked when it really matters. Two years ago, in the 2015-16 season, they went 29-14 over their last 43 games to finish as the fifth seed despite losing an All-Star like LaMarcus Aldridge in the summer of 2015. Last year, a season marred by injuries, it was yet another inspiring second-half run, (17-6 in the last 23 games) fueled by a trade for Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic, that saved their season.
A week back, there were five win streaks in the league including the Blazers' (three in the West - Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans and the Toronto Raptors). Of those, only two remain - Portland (10 straight) and Toronto (9 straight).
The Raptors have dominated the East and with their new offensive playing style look like legitimate title contenders but for now, let's focus on the team from the NorthWest and the reasons behind their win streak:
#5 Health
The Blazers have been blessed with good health over the past couple of month (*Touchwood*). They've hardly had to report/announce any major injury to any of their key rotation players in the past few weeks and even if they have, it hasn't led to that many missed games.
Al-Farouq Aminu or "The Chief" is an underrated essential and integral part of Portland's rotation. Last year, in the 21 games he missed, they went 8-13 (38.1%) but they were 33-28 (54.1%) in the games he donned the jersey. While the percentages are slightly better without him this season, he is still a net positive - In Aminu's absence (9-4: 69.2%) and when he plays (33-22: 75%).
In general, as well, there were multiple players that were forced to sit through the first couple of months of this season. Not being able to consistently depend on an established rotation, saw the Blazers register a record that was only marginally above .500 till mid-January.
Things have turned since then.
#4 Defense
Ever since their Cinderella Playoff run in the 2015 postseason, everybody speculated that if the Blazers wanted to take the next step, they needed to choose one from their superstar guard duo of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard, especially for its defensive benefit.
In the 2015-16 regular season, the Blazers had a defensive rating of 105.6, good for 20th in the league. There was certainly scope for improvement, instead, the front office upgraded at the center position from Mason Plumlee to Jusuf Nurkic in a mid-season trade (2016-17) with the Denver Nuggets.
For the 2016-17 season, their defensive rating witnessed a dip - 107.8 (20th best) but a stark improvement was seen after the injection of Nurkic to the squad. After the mid-season trade, the Blazers had a defensive rating of 105.6 (good for 12th best).
This year, they've taken another step forward. For the season so far, they are the 7th best defense with a rating of 104.1 but it gets better during their win streak - 99.3 (3rd best).
A huge part of their improved defense is a result of their team gang-rebounding. During this current win streak, they are the third best defensive rebounding team in the league (36.5 with the best defensive rebound percentage - 82.5%), which in turn reduces the opponent's second-chance points (9.8 - 3rd best) and points in the paint (43.6 - tied 6th best).
Their opponents during this streak aren't exactly easy walkover teams, despite that, the Blazers rank in the Top 3 when it comes to opponent's FG% (44.1% - 3rd best) and opponent's 3P% (32% - 2nd best).
While their offense has always been their calling card in the Lillard-McCollum era, this season and especially during this streak, it's their much-improved defense that ranks them among the top teams in terms of net rating.
#3 Offense
When you have an explosive backcourt like Lillard and McCollum, offense should never be a problem but the Blazers have suffered from an over-reliance on the duo in the past. That hasn't really been in the case this season, especially during this streak.
Over the course of this season, the duo has averaged 48.6 points per game, that's 45.9% of the team's total production. As far as that number isn't above 50%, the Blazers are okay. Things get even better from the team's perspective when you shorten the sample size to just their current streak. The duo averages 54.7 points, a huge jump but that's still under the halfway mark at 48.8% of the team's total production.
It's great to see that the team can string more than a couple of wins together without needing their sharpshooters to contribute more than half of their points. So the team is getting adequate production from the rest of its players and it helps that almost all of them - other than Nurkic and Ed Davis - can shoot the long ball efficiently.
During this streak, the Blazers are shooting 38.7% from long range - fifth best in the league. Their big men have been working hard on the glass as well, averaging 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (6th best), which in turn results in second-chance points - 15.9 (2nd best).
#2 Bench
All through the season, the Blazers' bench has been suspect with a net rating of just +1.7 (11th best) but that doesn't say a lot as the reserves on 17 of the 30 teams have a negative net rating so the Blazers are essentially third from the bottom.
However, like several of their other stats, this one experiences a huge rise during the streak. Only the Raptors bench (+17.5), which has been great all season, is better than the Blazers' bench (+11.8) over the last 10 games. This, despite playing at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, speaks volumes of their confidence on their half-court sets and rebounding.
As we mentioned earlier, multiple injuries across the board at different times didn't allow them to establish a rotation and a bench that could get acclimated to each other. During this streak, they've certainly done that and then some. Shabazz Napier, Pat Connaughton, Ed Davis, rookie Zach Collins, Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner are key members of their bench.
#1 Damian Lillard
Let's let the numbers do the talking. During the team's current streak, Lillard averages 32.5 points per game (leads the league), 6.4 assists (19th best) at 45.8% shooting from the field and 42.7% from beyond the arc. If those numbers aren't enough, how about this one - only Rudy Gobert (12.8) has a better +/- while on the floor than Lillard (11.6) over the last 10 games.
For somebody, who apparently hurts the team defensively, he must be doing A LOT on offense to achieve those numbers. Over these last 10 games, among players who average more than 20 minutes a game, Lillard has the third-best PIE (Player Impact Estimate) at 18.9, only behind LeBron James and Rudy Gobert. He's been able to be productive at a higher efficiency due to a reduced dependency on his contribution.
Guess the Lakers players!
