5 reasons why Houston can't beat Golden State in the Playoffs

In a primetime game this past Saturday, the Houston Rockets wrapped up their season series (2-1) against the Golden State Warriors, with a 116-108 win at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The earlier matchups between the teams were on opening night (Oct. 17) of the 2017-18 season and on Jan. 4, 2018.

Unfortunately, each of these games has been marred by some injury or player absence, which doesn't allow us to have any major takeaways from any one particular game. However, now that the season series is over, and although it might not be enough of a sample size (3 games), it's all we got to predict what could/would happen if both these teams meet in the Western Conference Finals, which seems highly likely right now.

Here are 5 reasons why the Rockets will not be able to beat the defending champions, come Playoff time:

#5 No injury concerns & repeated off-games in the Playoffs

You can make a case for the Warriors dropping the game on opening night because of their championship celebration. It's sounds like an excuse but champions have historically dropped the game on opening night while still having long postseasons or even a championships.

Although they were beaten, they played the fourth quarter of that close game without one of their All-Stars - Draymond Green. Not to mention, the three rotation players - Nick Young, Jordan Bell, and Omri Casspi - that they were still trying to gel with.

In game 2 of the season series, on Jan. 4, both teams played without huge stars in Kevin Durant and James Harden respectively. That game, the Splash Brothers - Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson - carried the Warriors to a win by combining for 57 points.

Having said that, it was the duo's struggles in game 3 (the one this past Saturday) that might have cost the Warriors the game. Together they shot 9-of-31 (29.03%) from the field and Curry missed a wide open Durant twice in the last two minutes when they were only down by three.

Point to be noted here - players of Curry and Thompson's quality aren't going to have a lot of such off-shooting nights in the Playoffs, let alone four times in seven games. Green's absence on opening night turned out to be a rest issues, something that won't be a problem in the postseason.

#4 James Harden's clutch gene

Houston Rockets v Washington Wizards — James Harden

So historically, when James Harden, with either of his teams (Rockets or the Oklahoma City Thunder), has had a chance to shine at the grandest stage of them all - the Finals or Conference Finals - he hasn't.

Last year, he disappeared in a must-win Game 6 in the Conference Semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs. Houston lost the game and the series against a Spurs that were missing both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. After averaging 27.4 points, 10.2 assists, 44.0% shooting from the field and a net +13 over the first five games of the series, he only put 10 points, 7 assists, 18.2% shooting and was a -28 in Game 6.

Harden first got a taste of these high-pressure games in 2012, when he faced the Miami Heat in the 2012 NBA Finals. He wasn't the flat-out star then, however, he was an important piece of the team after Durant and Russell Westbrook. He was a reserve player who played starters minutes and after scoring double digits points in every game that Playoffs, he failed to do so in three of the five Finals games. The last three games of the series, he averaged 12.0 points (2012 Playoff average - 16.3), he shot 9-for-31 (29.03%) and was a net -26.

In 2015, Harden was the first time rose to superstardom in terms of postseason success, by carrying the Rockets to the Conference Finals against the eventual champions the Warriors. Once again, he started the series on fire at least individually. Through the first two games of the series, he averaged 33.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists, which resulted in two close losses by four points and one point. It all went downhill from there.

Other than an inspired 43-point showing in Game 4, where he led the team to a lone win in the series, it was a disappointing show. In Games 3 & 5, he averaged 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists on 18.5% shooting from the field and a net -35.

"The Beard" has a got a lot to prove when it comes to showing up when the team needs him the most in Playoff must-win situations.

#3 Mike D'Antoni notorious habit to use a short bench

Right from his days as a head coach of the Phoenix Suns, reigning Head Coach of the Year, Mike D'Antoni had a notorious habit of playing a very short bench in the Playoffs.

Many believe Harden's dismal performance in Game 6 last year was because he was gassed out, not only because of D'Antoni short rotation tactics but also due to Harden unnecessarily playing 81 games in the 2016-17 regular season.

And once again if the Rockets are to meet the Warriors in the Conference Finals, it's bound to take its toll on the players that are part of that short rotation. Also doing it in the East is one thing but in the West, it could be the reason why the Rockets lose because the teams in the first and second round of the West Playoffs are no pushovers.

#2 Close shaves

We've discussed what went wrong for the Warriors in their losses to the Rockets. Despite those deficiencies or non-showings, Houston's win margin is only in single digits and when we talk about the opening night clash, it's just one point.

So it's not like the Rockets are running away with these games.

They've strengthened their squad with more modern NBA players (PJ Tucker, Luc Mbah A Moute), guys who can play both sides of the ball, but even with that ammunition, they are just about managing to catch the Warriors' off-guard. Come Playoff time, there's going to be no road trip that Golden State would have to recover from as they head to Houston unlike their most recent clash on Saturday.

In a seven-game series, especially in the later couple of rounds of the postseason, there are only so many times luck will be on your side. There will be only so many times the Rockets will be able to run away with these close wins. To beat Golden State four times out of seven games, you have got to outplay them.

Not only has that not happened in the last three years (except in the 2016 Finals), it's also extremely difficult, given each team's roster construction

#1 Rockets live & die by the three

It's no breaking news that the Rockets live and die by the three-pointers but it's a risk their General Manager Daryl Morey and D'Antoni are willing to take. This motto helped them win Game 1 against the Spurs by 27 points but it was also the reason why they lost Games 2 & 6 by a combined 64 points in the 2017 Conference Semifinals.

From the 47 games played so far, the Warriors are ranked third best in opponent's field goal percentage at 43.7% and that's bound to get tighter after April. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 47.1% (23rd) in this category. If we stick to just defense on three-point shooting, Golden State holds their opponents to 35.8% shooting (11th best) whereas Houston does it at 37.4% (25th ranked).

So if their strategy is to outscore the Warriors, that isn't going to work but that's the risk Morey is willing to take.

In terms of percentage of points from beyond the arc, the Rockets are at a league-best 41.1% while the Warriors are 12th at 30.2%. But the tables turn when scoring is checked from 2-point range. Houston is ranked dead last in percentage of points inside the three-point line - 41.3%. Again Golden State is more balanced and thus ranks 15th in this category with 55% of their points coming from inside the three-point arc.

Here the question the team from Texas has to answer is how will they adapt when their team is a rough shooting night from long distance? And don't just count the one game they might have a bad night, count an extra one for the night the Warriors give nothing away defensively.

Edited by Yash Matange