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The Golden State Warriors sealed their 4th successive trip to the NBA Finals after a hard-fought 4-3 series victory over the top-seeded Houston Rockets in the Western Conference Finals. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry combined for 61 of the Warriors' total of 101 in Game 7 and helped them over the line with some fantastic individual plays.
It has long been surmised that either of the Rockets or the Warriors will be thorough favorites against any team that emerges from the Eastern Conference. LeBron James led his undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers to 2 crucial wins in Games 6 & 7 against a young and spirited Boston Celtics team to ensure his progression to an 8th successive Finals series.
But The King will no longer be the vaunted favorite. Bookies have given the Cavs a mere +650 odds of winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, in addition to handing -1000 odds to the Warriors. There are a couple of important factors into why the betting on this series is so lopsided, and we take a look at all of them through the next few pages:
#1 The Cavaliers don't have an answer for Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant has always been a nightmare matchup for LeBron in the Playoffs. While he lost the Finals series with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2012, Durant stuck 30.6 points on 54.8% shooting from the field and 39.4% on 3s to emerge as the top scorer of the series.
He upped the ante in the Finals last year, outplaying LeBron on both ends of the floor while averaging 35.2 points per game on 55.6% shooting from the field and a spectacular 47.4% from beyond the arc.
He could barely miss, and several times he scored the kind of tough shots that left Kerr bemused at the audacity of the Easy Money Sniper and Ty Lue clutching at straws while trying in vain to plug all the holes the rest of the Warriors were punching into the Cavs' defense.
Durant is pretty much still the same player on offense, but his defensive game is now better than it ever was. He is a legitimate rim-protector in lineups without a true center for the Warriors, and he is comfortable switching onto virtually any guard in the game. He's the ultimate basketball cheat code to have on your side on the hardwood, and no other team in the league has anyone who can dominate the game every minute like Durant does.
#2 The Warriors' ball movement will be too much for the Cavs to handle
The Warriors were tested to the limit by the 65-win Rockets. As long as Chris Paul had the floor, the Rockets looked like a tough nut to crack. They were able to field lineups that disrupted the ball movement of the Warriors while forcing them into isolation plays and turnovers galore.
The Cavaliers have been objectively good on the defensive side of the ball this postseason. But they are nothing like the Rockets, who have a plethora of talented defenders and a cast that is completely comfortable with guarding on switches. The way Jayson Tatum was able to get past JR Smith in the Eastern Conference Finals - despite JR being their best perimeter defender - has to be concerning for Ty Lue.
If the ball starts ping-ponging around the Cavs' hoop with Draymond feeding cutters and finding Thompson/Curry open off screens, it will be curtains for whatever little chances the Cavs have of slowing the Warriors' offense down.
#3 The Hamptons' 5 lineup is the best there is in basketball
The 5-man lineup of Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green has been a vital component of the Warriors' postseason success over the last 2 summers. This year, through 110 minutes of playing together in 7 appearances, the Hamptons' Five lineup boasts of an offensive rating of 123.9, a defensive rating of 101.1 and a net rating of 22.9.
Collectively, they're blowing teams out on their own with their starting lineup - particularly in 3rd quarters of games. This lineup boasts of 4 really good playmakers, including reigning DPOY winner Draymond Green, and they're able to move the ball around on offense and run rings against most defenses when they get their mojo going.
We've seen them get it done against Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday in the semifinals, Harden and Paul in the Conference Finals and we'll probably see it happen against LeBron in the Finals as well.
#4 Cleveland's role players are spectacularly underperforming
Make no mistake, the Cavaliers' roster is one of the most well-rounded of all the teams in the NBA. The deadline day trades they pulled off to bring in Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr and George Hill were welcomed by basketball fans as a necessary step towards getting back to a fourth successive NBA Finals for the Cavs, and they have stepped up and helped LeBron at various stages in these playoffs when he needed that help.
But they're mostly all just off their game. Hill, who averaged a 41.5% clip on 3-pointers during the regular season, is now down to a woefully low 25.7% rate during the playoffs. Jeff Green, who was instrumental in getting the Cavs across the line in games 6 & 7 against Boston, has still been underwhelming in the playoffs. His playing time is nearly identical to his regular season mark, but his scoring is down 2.5 points per game, as is his field goal percentage.
Jordan Clarkson has been relegated to restricted minutes because of his decision-making, while the same has happened to Larry Nance. Rodney Hood has only seen garbage time minutes in the last 2 series, while JR Smith hit the side of the backboard as many times as he hit 3-pointers in Boston.
Plain and simple, this isn't going to cut it.
#5 The Warriors are the best defensive team in the NBA
Assuming that all of Cleveland's role players are able to get themselves right mentally and are prepared to step up their game in the Finals, they'll be coming across the best defensive team of the league in the playoffs. At a defensive rating of 99.9, the Warriors are a full 3.1 points better than the Indiana Pacers (whom the Cavs faced in the first round) and 4.8 points better than the Boston Celtics (the Cavs were unable to score in excess of 100 points in any of their road games in the Conference Finals).
The Warriors are able to field 4 All-Defensive team caliber players in Iggy, Klay, Dray, and Durant at any point during a game, and can rely on them to make life hell for whichever player they happen to be guarding. Short of sinking every single open look they find, the Cavaliers will be hard-pressed to pass on any playmaking responsibility to players other LeBron in this team.
