Can Toronto Raptors make it into 2023 NBA playoffs? Looking at chances of the team to make it past play-in tournament

The NBA playoffs are on the horizon, with many teams having their regular season outlook set in stone. This is the case for the Toronto Raptors, who have clinched a spot in the play-in tournament and will attempt to earn a matchup with a top seed in the playoffs.

The Raptors (40-40) are 6-4 in their last 10 games. They rank 23rd in the NBA in scoring at 112.9 points per game but hold opponents to just 111.3 ppg, which is the fourth-best rate in the league. Toronto also ranks first in steals and second in offensive rebounding.

Pascal Siakam leads the team in scoring at 24.3 ppg along with 7.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists. Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes are each also averaging 15.5 ppg or more.

It was a step back this season for the Raptors as they went 48-34 and finished in fifth place in the Eastern Conference last year. They were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers in six games in the opening round. The hope was for them to continue their progression, but that didn't happen this regular season.

Can the Raptors make the playoffs?

The Toronto Raptors are ninth in the Eastern Conference. The Chicago Bulls (38-42) are two games behind them in 10th, while the Atlanta Hawks (41-39) are just one game ahead.

Chicago can't overtake Toronto because the Raptors won the season series 2-1. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker with the Raptors by winning the season series 2-1. So, for Toronto to catch Atlanta, the Raptors would have to win their final two games and have the Hawks lose their final two games.

Toronto is at the Boston Celtics on Friday and at home against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Atlanta hosts the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday and visits Boston on Sunday.

Assuming the standings remain, which basketball-reference.com has set at 94.2%, the Raptors will face the Bulls in a play-in game on Wednesday. If Toronto wins that game, they will face the loser of the 7/8 matchup, which will be between the Hawks and either the Miami Heat or Brooklyn Nets, on Friday.

The winner of this matchup will secure the No. 8 seed in the playoffs and face the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks.

Basketball reference gives the Raptors a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. The Nets have a 93% chance, the Heat have a 80.4% chance and the Hawks have a 70.5% chance. Only the Chicago Bulls have a smaller chance as they are considered to have just a 25.7% chance of making the playoffs.

It has been a disappointing year for the Raptors, and they do not match up well with any of the teams they will need to get through. While their versatile style of play and athletic lineups can cause issues, they have been unable to click all season.

This should not be expected to change during the play-in, with most signs pointing towards them being sent packing during the play-in tournament.