Dissecting how Rob Dillingham fits Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs' long-term plans

Rob Dillingham exudes confidence and creativity when he steps on the basketball court. The dynamic freshman guard starred in his lone year at Kentucky, showcasing NBA-level shooting, scoring and passing off the bounce. He’s vaulted himself into top-five pick discussions, as teams covet his diverse offensive skillset.

On-ball creation remains the most important offensive skill and Dillingham flashes this at a high level. He’s the best ballhandler to enter the NBA in quite some time, likely since LaMelo Ball in 2020. They call him “Robwitdashifts” for a reason – Dillingham shakes defenders out of their shoes with a deceptive, dynamic handle.

Dillingham stops and starts on a dime, jittering and shaking defenders who can’t stop their momentum in time. He invents counters on the fly, burning defenders with spins, behind the backs, or anything he could imagine when they cut his initial drive off. All great NBA guards can get to their spot at any time and Dillingham has this trait.

Elite dribbling enables Dillingham’s scoring, as he sports perhaps the best touch in the entire draft. He feathers in layups and floaters no matter the angle, controlling his body in midair to get shots off. Dillingham shot an elite 52.8% on runners this past season, placing in the 88th percentile among all college basketball players.

Rob Dillingham scouting report: Budget LaMelo Ball with a better handle

His touch extends beyond the three-point line, where Rob has a case as the best shooter in the NBA draft. The three-point shooting numbers speak for themselves — 44.4% on 10.5 attempts per 100 possessions shooting 79.6% from the line. He’s a dynamic mid-range scorer, hitting an elite 43.3% of his non-rim two-pointers.

It’s easy to see on film that shooting versatility — the ability and willingness to take a diverse diet of jumpers off the dribble and off the catch — stands out as a critical trait for projecting shooters. Dillingham pulls off the dribble from beyond NBA range, self-creating pro jump shots. He sprints off of movement, flying around screens to his left and right to add to his shooting toolkit.

Dillingham isn’t as dynamic a downhill driver as some of the other top guards in this class, as his raw first step and strength lag. Defenders can bump him off his driving path and wall up at the rim against the frail Dillingham. His off-ball game, though, sets him apart from all other top-level guards in this class.

Most NBA players can’t operate a heliocentric offense like Luka Doncic. Learning to play off-ball is key and feeling spacing, movement and timing off of the ball are real skills. Adding value next to other ball-dominant stars raises the ceiling for NBA prospects. Dillingham exhibits an exceptional off-ball feel. He’s not just a great movement shooter but an excellent cutter and spacer, floating into creases left open by the defense on cuts to open shots for himself and his teammates.

Dillingham’s creativity and flare ooze as a playmaker, where he flips the court with long skip passes and drops off laydowns in the pick and roll. He posted excellent passing numbers this season: 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio on a 30.1% assist rate. I’m always impressed with his poise and patience, as Dillingham will wait for windows to open up instead of forcing, especially against pressure. But he will try audacious passes, often generating easy layups and dunks for his teammates as a result.

Rob Dillingham's height and weight could be of concern in NBA Draft 2024

Defense is the main area of concern for Dillingham, as his slight frame hinders his stopping ability both on and off the ball. He measured small and light at the combine, clocking in at 6’1 without shoes and weighing 164 pounds. It’s rare for NBA players to weigh in that light; the only prospects to weigh under 170 pounds since 2000 and find success in the league were Dennis Schroder, Darren Collison and Aaron Brooks.

He struggled mightily on the defensive end both on and off of the ball, as his lack of size and strength led to constant blowbys and defensive breakdowns. Dillingham struggled to defend ball screens, as stronger pick-setters often blindsided him and took him out of the play entirely. If there’s an optimistic angle, Kentucky’s defense was atrocious on the whole and Dillingham’s performance wasn’t singular among the roster.

Dillingham’s extremely slight frame could mean there’s room for physical growth in an NBA strength and conditioning program. Most teenagers lack functional strength and Dillingham is no exception. His feet move quickly on the perimeter and Dillingham flashes the ability to slide and mirror on the ball and round screens with solid agility.

His 2.4% steal rate indicates positive instincts as a help defender and Dillingham flashes positive team defense. There’s a feel for jumping passing lanes, timing digs to disrupt driving paths and general positioning when he’s locked in on the defensive end.

Though Dillingham won’t ever be a great defender, he won’t need to reach those heights. Elite offensive players can add most of their value on that end of the floor. As long as Dillingham isn’t one of the worst defenders in the NBA who teams relentlessly hunt, that’s a win for his projection. Dillingham’s offensive gifts will allow his team to surround him with defensive weapons that he can help maximize on the other end.

Betting on elite traits helps teams find stars in the draft. Dillingham’s ballhandling and floater touch are both certifiably elite and they interact in a synergistic manner. Even prospects with those elite traits often have other weaknesses and limitations that don’t allow them to unlock their highest potential. For Rob Dillingham, this shouldn’t be the case on the offensive end of the floor.

If Dillingham hits his ceiling, he will develop into an offensive star who will make All-Star games for years to come. Even if he doesn’t find a high-end outcome, Dillingham’s scoring talent should at least allow him to impact winning as a sixth-man, microwave scoring piece. Teams with offensive stars already in place — San Antonio, Houston, etc — should prioritize Dillingham for his on and off-ball capabilities.