Is Kevin Durant the MVP?

Another advance stat that can be thrown at you is win shares (explained here http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html), which is an attempt to place a value on how many wins a player is worth. Well, guess what, KD leads the league in offensive win shares at 8.2 (LeBron, 6.9) and overall win shares at 10.9 (LeBron, 8.6), and also leads the two in defensive win shares (2.8 to 1.7). I am not saying this is perfect stat to measure these two, Steph Curry, a notably bad defender has a defensive win share of 2.2, but when you are splitting hairs between two elites, little things like this matter. There is also the evaluation of defense that has always worked to keep KD some distance behind LeBron, but if we are to believe smart people who watch basketball for a living, this gap may be closing more than we know as well: “Also — and this has flown under the radar — Durant’s been better defensively than James this season.” (Ethan Sherwood Straus, NBA TrueHoop Network). Even if this is a mostly subjective belief, the fact that it can be uttered shows that the gap is definitely closing between these two.

Finally, we get to the term valuable, and this is the easiest debate between the two for me. I know almost all of it is derived from the extended period of time that Russ is missing, but KD is about as valuable as you can get in his situation. On a team that still leaves people wondering at times if their offensive scheme goes much beyond producing points based on KD and Russ’s individual brilliance, KD is surviving and efficiently thriving even though he has to shoulder a ridiculous burden. When Westbrook went down, people were wondering how far the Thunder would drop, instead, they have maintained their spot atop the Western Conference standings. In conclusion, I would have to say, based on the season so far, I would pick KD as the MVP, in no small part because I can’t pick a guy who is visibly conserving while his chief opponent is carrying the heaviest load and playing the best statistical season in the league. I know LeBron is still the best player, but it seems like he is waiting until the postseason to prove this. For that reason, the half-way point, REGULAR SEASON MVP is Kevin Durant.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com.

Matt Tuckness: In my opinion, The Most Valuable Player award is the most subjective award in the NBA. The award is based first on team performance and standing, then based on a players importance to that team. The best example of this is Kobe Bryant during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons.

Kobe’s stat lines for those two years

06-07- 35.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.8 spg, 3.3 tpg, 45% Fg, Team Record 42-40

07-08- 31.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 3.1 tpg, 46.3% Fg Team Record 57-25

Kobe finished 3rd in MVP voting in during the 06-07 season behind Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, but won during the 07-08 season. Why would a player with arguably better numbers finish behind Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, but win the following year. My first thought was Dirk and Nash had incredible seasons and weren’t as good the following year.

Dirk’s stat line:

06-07-24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.4 apg, .8 bpg, 2.1 tpg, 50.2% FG, 41.6% 3pt, 90.4% ft Team Record-67-15

07-08- 23.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, .9 bpg, 2.1 tpg, 47.9% fg, 35.9% 3pt, 87.9% ft Team Record 51-31

Nash Stat line:

06-07- 18.6ppg, 3.5 rpg, 11.5 apg, .8 spg, 3.8 tpg, 53.2% fg, 45.5% 3pt, 89.9% ft Team Record- 61-21

07-08- 16.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 11.1 apg, .7 spg, 3.6 tpg, 50.4% fg, 47.0% 3pt, 90.6% ft Team Record- 55-27

Both Dirk and Nash had slightly worse numbers the following year, but both had very strong seasons. You may think that they finished 2nd and 3rd behind Kobe but instead they finished 9th (Nash) and 11th (Nowitzki) in MVP voting. That just doesn’t make any sense to me. How is it that you can go from winning an MVP to 11th in voting by dropping 2% points from the field. That was when I realized the MVP is based on team performance, the worst metric to value the most valuable player. As you can see the Lakers record jumped 15 games while both the Mavs and Suns records dropped despite solid performances from their MVP candidates. As you saw from the numbers Kobe’s play stayed relatively consistent from year to year as did Nash’s and Dirk’s. During the year 2007 the Lakers added Pau Gasol one of the best power forwards in the game. Their record increased by 15 games and Kobe won the MVP. What I don’t understand is why Kobe was more valuable in the 07-08 season then he was in the 06-07. There is no way that team wins 42 games without him, yet Dirk won based on his teams higher performance.

I bring this up to help define what the NBA values as the most valuable player and to help define what I value as the most valuable player. According to the NBA the MVP is based on team record and then the best player from that team. In my opinion it should be the best player in the NBA despite his team’s record. Obviously, if you are good your team should be good, but there are special cases like Kobe Bryant. The other way to look at it, if you are the best player on the floor no matter who you play you are the most valuable player in the league.

In regards to the Kevin Durant and LeBron James argument, it is a bit more convoluted. Because of LeBron’s conservation this season in an attempt to make a playoff run his numbers are a bit down. Kevin Durant in the absence of Russell Westbrook has been on fire. Ryan listed the statistical difference between LeBron and KD’s numbers this season, which are important to note. He also made an excellent point that Durant has been better since Westbrook went down and that the Thunder are still first in the west. It is important to not forget that LeBron has played a significant amount of games without Wade this season, in fact D Wade has only played 6 more games then Westbrook this season. There is a 2.5 game difference in records in favor of the Thunder. Yet it feels like the Thunder are dominating despite Russell and the Heat are struggling because of Wade being hurt and LeBron conserving.

This in my opinion is a testament to the greatness of LeBron James and what frustrates me about the MVP award. The collective NBA audience is down on LeBron and the Heat and up on Kevin Durant and the Thunder. Josh Biers is down on the Heat because they have hit a bit of a speed bump. Yet, despite this apparent speed bump they are only 2.5 games behind the Thunder. You could make an argument that Durant has it tougher because he plays in the West, but the Heat have a better win percentage against the West than the Thunder do. This just makes me feel like Durant has closed the gap this season between himself and LeBron. As Ryan stated Lebron can morph his game into whatever the Heat need in a situation to win a game. Durant can do this as well, but not at the level of LeBron. If you asked yourself right now who you would rather have on your team based on their performance now I find it hard for anyone to pick Durant over LeBron and that is the most important stat to me.

What this really means is we need two different awards. One for the best season performance based on team record, season circumstances (like teammate injuries) and stats. Then one for the most valuable or best player in the NBA. Much like how the NFL has an offensive player of the year and a league MVP. It seems like they would go hand in hand and in some situations they would, but for seasons like this one we would have two different winners. Adrian Peterson won both awards last year, but two years ago Brees won offensive and Rodgers won MVP. Rodgers had the most efficient season in NFL history where Brees broke the single season mark for yards. This year I think KD would win the offensive or best season performance and LeBron the most valuable. Even if KD has been putting up better numbers, LeBron is still the best and most valuable player in the NBA. If the season ended today KD would win today’s MVP but it should go to the best player in the NBA or in other words the most valuable and in my opinion that is still LeBron James.