NBA Finals MVP 2023: Which player stands the best chance at winning the coveted award?

While both the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will be playing for an NBA Championship in the coming weeks, one player will also be awarded the Finals MVP award.

Both teams have players capable of dominating the series and earning themselves the prestigious honor, but only one player will take the trophy home with them. As we look ahead to the NBA Finals, Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokic are projected as the two primary contenders for the individual trophy.

However, given Nikola Jokic's diverse skillset, and significant role within the Denver Nuggets' offensive and defensive scheme, he has a legitimate edge over Miami's 33-year-old wing.

Throughout the playoffs, Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double in points, rebounds, and assists while shooting the rock and an incredibly efficient clip. In 15 playoff games, Jokic has a stat line of 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists on 55.2% shooting from two-point range and 47.4% from deep.

With those sorts of numbers and his defensive upside when operating as a rim protector in drop defense, it's hard to envision how another player is going to have as big an impact as Nikola Jokic.

After all, we're talking about a two-time league MVP who has shouldered the brunt of the Denver Nuggets' workload throughout their run to the NBA Finals. So, it doesn't make much sense for that type of play to suddenly fall off a cliff.

Of course, in order for Nikola Jokic to be considered for the NBA Finals MVP award, the Denver Nuggets need to be competitive throughout the series. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the player to be considered the MVP in the series, especially if Jimmy Butler is dominating play on both sides of the floor.

Why Nikola Jokic has the best chance

We should expect the Denver Nuggets roster to do everything in their power to heavily feature Nikola Jokic in their game plan.

There are very few players in the NBA who can dominate in the multitude of ways that we've come to expect from Nikola Jokic. Sure, you've got LeBron James, and maybe Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, and Kevin Durant too. I'm probably missing a couple of names from the list, but you get the point. It's an exclusive club.

That said, it will be more difficult for Nikola Jokic not to be recognized as the NBA Finals MVP than it will be for him to win it. The former MVP simply has too much skill and too big of a role for his team, and over the course of a potential seven-game series, his undoubted impact will shine through.

The bigger question is, will Jimmy Butler be able to make it a close contest, or will Nikola Jokic simply run away with the award like many believe he will? Personally, I'm expecting the international big man to win it by a considerable margin.