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The 2020-21 NBA season for the Miami Heat was the epitome of a post-Finals hangover. With a significantly shortened offseason, injuries and shooting inaccuracy saw the Heat lose pace with the Eastern Conference's top-3 teams.
Not to mention the fact that their competitors had improved their rosters while they stayed largely the same.
Finishing sixth in the conference and being swept by the Milwaukee Bucks in the first-round of the playoffs wasn't good enough, and so began a summer of re-tooling for the Miami Heat.
But will it be enough to see them return to the Eastern Conference Finals? Or could they see a repeat of last season, where only a late run of eleven wins in their final 15 games saw them avoid an NBA play-in tournament matchup?
In this article, we will weigh up what the ceiling and floor will be for the Miami Heat this season.
Floor for Miami Heat ahead of the 2021-22 NBA season
For all of the positives that the Miami Heat's new signings bring, they could also be the team's downfall. Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala were all cut loose - players that had been integral to the Heat's run to the NBA Finals in 2020 - to make way for the new stars.
Furthermore, while it could be said that defense will help the Miami Heat win games next season, they finished 25th in the NBA for points scored last year and it's difficult to see that changing.
Of course, they were affected by the shortened offseason and covid disruptions which led to inefficient shooting. But adding Lowry and Tucker to the starting lineup isn't going to change that.
Lowry shot at an elite 39.6% from deep last season and averaged 17.2 points per game. While these were impressive stats for a 35-year-old point guard in his 15th season, he did begin to show some slippage in form.
As for Tucker, his days of being an outlet in the corner are behind him. He averaged just 4.3 field-goal attempts and one assist per game for the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs and shot at 37% during the regular season.
Butler led the Miami Heat in scoring last year with 21.5 points per game, but even that wasn't enough to rank him among the top 30 scorers in the league. Meanwhile, fellow starter Duncan Robinson put up 13.1 points but that was on lower shooting averages in each metric (field-goal, three, free-throw).
When they faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs, the Miami Heat only scored 98 points per game and shot below 40% from the field. If they can't find their scoring touch, it could put their floor as low as having to compete in the NBA's play-in tournament.
Considering how much stronger the East has become in recent years, it will in no way be a guaranteed passage to the playoffs.
Ceiling for the Miami Heat in the 2021-22 NBA season
With their offseason acquisitions, the Miami Heat have brought themselves back into contention in the East. Adding Kyle Lowry to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo has all the hallmarks of being the toughest defensive 'Big 3' in the league.
Then you bring PJ Tucker and Markieff Morris into the mix - two tenacious competitors who should help iron out the defensive inefficiencies that the Heat struggled with on the perimeter last season.
Offensive spacing could get tricky, with Lowry being the most consistent scorer in their newly assembled power trio. However, both Butler and Adebayo are extremely versatile players capable of finding their own shot.
Completing the lineup will be Duncan Robinson, who has connected with 42% of threes over the past two campaigns, and PJ Tucker who will bring championship experience and add to their defensive grit.
The squad depth that the Miami Heat now have is what could propel them into the top three teams in the East. If Victor Oladipo can return to his pre-injury form, he could easily be in conversation for the league's Sixth Man of the Year award.
They will also have Tyler Herro on the sideline, who averaged 15 points, five rebounds and 3.4 assists last season.
While it is sensible to be realistic about the Miami Heat's chances this year, given the power that the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets possess, their ceiling could well be the NBA Finals.
They surprised everybody in the 'Bubble', knocking off the Bucks and the Boston Celtics on their way to facing the LA Lakers. Given that they have retained their core assets and added players with championship experience who have 'Heat culture' embedded in their style of play, Miami may be the dark horse again this season.
