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During the dog days of August when all NBA fans could do nothing but clamor for the return of the league we all love, it is tons of fun to generate anticipation of what promises to be yet another interesting season ahead. The past offseason has become one to remember, with two of the best nominal small forwards in the world, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard changing conferences, going to the Lakers, and Raptors respectively. The signing of DeMarcus Cousins, however, prompted lots of fans to prematurely declare the Warriors champions, which, to be fair, basically everyone expects. But as we learned from the Rockets last season, nothing is set in stone. Maybe Kevin Durant rolls his ankle, or DeMarcus Cousins doesn’t recover fully and becomes a locker room problem, and the Warriors get bounced in the second round. (You’re right, that’s not happening.) Let’s face it; if the Warriors are healthy come playoff time, they’ll surely be raising their third straight championship and their fourth in five years, and that means that, yet again, all 29 teams are going to be looking up on Golden State, and the only question left to ask is just how far a team is from their level.
Note: My Win-Loss predictions did not come from statistical analysis but rather educated guesses guided by true statistical projections.
Without further ado:
30. ATLANTA HAWKS
ESPN Projected Record: 22-60
538 Projected Record: 28-54
My Projected Record: 20-62
Player(s) to Watch: Trae Young, PG; John Collins, PF/C
With Travis Schlenk, a former member of the Warriors staff, trying to build his own version of the Warriors with his 2018 first round draft picks (Young, Kevin Huerter, and Omari Spellman), it’s a good reminder that the Warriors definitely did not expect to be the juggernaut they became after drafting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Back in 2013, Green was nothing but an enforcer off the bench who shot dreadfully (22%) from beyond the arc, and Thompson was perceived to be merely a better version of Danny Green due to his inability to create his own shot. Curry was just coming into his own after an injury-marred start to his career, but nobody thought he’d change the game the way he did. No one thought they’d become the centerpieces of a 73-win team that was good enough to lure another MVP from a good situation in Oklahoma City. It’s a relevant and significant reminder that literally everything had to go their way for them to become 3-time champions. Everyone trying to emulate the Warriors is bound to fail. God bless you, Travis Schlenk.
29. SACRAMENTO KINGS
ESPN Projected Record: 24-58
538 Projected Record: 21-61
My Projected Record: 23-59
Player(s) to Watch: De’Aaron Fox, PG; Marvin Bagley III, PF
Here’s another team with delusions of being the Warriors. No one will ever forget Kings owner, Vivek Ranadive, dubbing Buddy Hield as “the next Steph Curry”. Anyway, that’s enough talking about the Warriors. The Kings own the longest active postseason drought, and they’re that team that when they look like they’re finally building something, they take shortcuts which costs them even greater in the long run. There’s that Mike Malone firing after a good start to the season. How about using two first-round picks to dump salary so they can sign Rajon Rondo and Marco frickin’ Belinelli? Here’s to hoping that they continue to build the right way because it’s slowly looking like they’ve got something brewing. If Fox’s shooting continues to grow, Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic become bonafide two-way players, Harry Giles proves himself legitimate, and Bagley shakes off the “tweener” distinction to become a star, then the Kings are finally on their way up. But those are a lot of ifs, and that’s if they haven’t used them by then to dump salary.
28. NEW YORK KNICKS
ESPN Projected Record: 28-54
538 Projected Record: 25-57
My Projected Record: 26-56
Player(s) to Watch: Kevin Knox, SF/PF; Frank Ntilikina, PG/SG
Much like the aforementioned Kings, the Knicks love to take shortcuts, as seen in their 2016 offseason moves of acquiring past-their-prime stars Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. It’s safe to say that they’re building the right way under GM Scott Perry. The biggest thing to watch is the growth of Ntilikina. It’s probably too early for now to move him to off-guard without knowing just how effective he can be as the primary ballhandler. He needs to have that freedom to grow as a point guard, and with Trey Burke, and Emmanuel Mudiay in the way, not to mention the presence of Jarrett Jack last season, he just wasn’t able to explore his ability as the lead ballhandler. One thing’s for sure – they’re going to be a much improved defensive team. The addition of Knox and Mitchell Robinson, a high energy big man in the mold of JaVale McGee, gives them length and mobility across all positions, a defensive skill asked out of every player nowadays, not to mention the already-terrifying defensive presence of Ntilikina. But with their main man Kristaps Porzingis absent due to a Torn ACL, wins will be hard to come by this year.
27. CHICAGO BULLS
ESPN Projected Record: 28-54
538 Projected Record: 27-55
My Projected Record: 26-56
Players to Watch: Jabari Parker, SF/PF; Zach LaVine, SG
All eyes are on Parker and LaVine, the highest-paid players on the Bulls. Their defensive track record is brutal, but it’s their offensive ceiling that dictates just how far this team can go. I have to admit that I wasn’t a Lauri Markkanen fan, but with the way he balled out during his rookie year, it’s safe to say that he’s the rock and the centerpiece of this Chicago rebuild, and the Bulls are in a position to take chances on young players whose stars have dimmed to see who would fit around Markkanen. I’d have to say that I think Parker isn’t it – he loves to play along the mid-range, utilize isolation plays to score, which is Markkanen’s natural scoring position, and his defensive position is the 4, which is Markkanen’s for the long run after the selection of Wendell Carter Jr. LaVine is pricy but he was looked at as the prize in the Jimmy Butler deal so keeping him was understandable even if the price was too steep in the end. Overall, the Bulls are on the rise, especially after Kris Dunn’s emergence (however, keep in mind that he’s already 24 for some reason), but they’d need to target more two-way players to reach the next level.
26. ORLANDO MAGIC
ESPN Projected Record: 30-52
538 Projected Record: 33-49
My Projected Record: 29-53
Players To Watch: Jonathan Isaac, PF; Mohamed Bamba, C
The Magic are the perfect example that should be brought up by Hinkie stans everywhere – they’ve been stuck in an endless rebuild, cycling through high draft pick and high draft pick, ultimately turning some valuable pieces like Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris into an overpaid Terrence Ross. The Magic also haven’t really remedied its frontcourt logjam that the team seems to have been stuck with for eternity. Mo Bamba. Jonathan Isaac. Nikola Vucevic. Aaron Gordon. Timofey Mozgov, (Yeah, you’re right, he’s not gonna play.) The aforementioned four are big men whose best positions are at the 5. (Aaron Gordon is a natural 4, but his greatest strengths are his rim-running and vertical game, and he fits really well in super-small ball lineups with him at the 5.) Only time will tell if this supersized team can coalesce into a unit whose collective impact far exceeds their collective wingspans.
25. CHARLOTTE HORNETS
ESPN Projected Record: 35-47
538 Projected Record: 38-44
My Projected Record: 31-51
Players to Watch: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF/PF; Malik Monk, SG
I’m not high at all on the Hornets. Everything just feels meh. Kemba Walker is a good bet to be traded. (If the Hornets fall off and he becomes available at a discounted rate, why wouldn’t the 76ers, Pacers, or Knicks jump in? But Walker has said that he wants to stay in Charlotte.) Nicolas Batum is slowing down, the frontcourt is lacking, and a lot of what the Hornets would hope to become (be a playoff team) relies on the exponential improvement of Monk, immediate star-level impact from 11th pick Miles Bridges, and tons of internal improvement from Jeremy Lamb and Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist’s ceiling, at this point in his career, seems to be a longer version of Tony Allen (Which is not at all bad, but downright disappointing coming from the second overall selection.) He defends extremely well, but his shooting just never developed into anything close to league average. Many are also disregarding the loss of Dwight Howard, but he sure contributed a lot to a team that won just 36 games and, even with his warts and all, his presence is going to be missed on the court.
24. BROOKLYN NETS
ESPN Projected Record: 32-50
538 Projected Record: 35-47
My Projected Record: 31-51
Players To Watch: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, PF; Jarrett Allen, C; D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG
It’s a testament to how well the Nets have operated after Sean Marks was hired that for the first time in a while, they own their pick (yes!), but it looks like the pick is going to land in the mid-teens (noooo). Allen is a very good big man. He’s mobile for his size, freakishly long, and plays his role (rim-runner) with no nonsense. Hollis-Jefferson has exceeded expectations, and his offensive game is developing. (His midrange game last season, _% on _ attempts per game.) The Nets have a modern collection of wings – an athletic scorer (Caris LeVert), a hard-nosed 3-and-D wing (DeMarre Carroll), sharpshooters that could go off at any time (Allen Crabbe and Joe Harris), and potential impact wings (rookies Rodions Kurucs and Dzanan Musa.) They have also amassed tons of depth, signing Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier, and while their best players aren’t there yet in terms of talent and two-way impact (D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie), their depth can be annoying to play against, especially coming off back-to-backs, and knowing how well Kenny Atkinson puts his players in positions to succeed, the Nets are only going up. (Not to mention their tons of cap space, next offseason…)
23. PHOENIX SUNS
ESPN Projected Record: 27-55
538 Projected Record: 26-56
My Projected Record: 27-55
Players To Watch: Josh Jackson, SF; DeAndre Ayton, C; Devin Booker, SG
Devin Booker has been paid and paid a lot, and the Suns have decided that they are going to keep on giving him the keys to the franchise, and to his credit, he has done his fair share to contribute, averaging around 24 points the past season. Luka Doncic and Booker could have been fun, especially with Doncic’s former coach Igor Kokoskov now in the helm, but Ayton should provide a reliable interior presence that can relieve the pressure off the Suns’ young perimeter players. (If one of Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss just panned out, they could have taken Doncic, but, here we are.) The addition of Trevor Ariza and selection of Mikal Bridges would help take pressure off Jackson on both ends, which could then help him transition into more of a secondary playmaking role against opposing bench units. Overall, if Kokoskov can bring out the best in everyone, especially the unreliable duo of Bender and Chriss, the Suns are a bit more dangerous than we think.
22. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
ESPN Projected Record: 31-51
538 Projected Record: 30-52
My Projected Record: 33-49
Players To Watch: Collin Sexton, PG; Kevin Love, PF; Cedi Osman, SG/SF
Everytime the King leaves Cleveland, they draft a 19 year old guard with tremendous scoring potential. Maybe the King leaving is a good thing? Yeah, didn’t think so. Everyone, I mean, everyone piled on LeBron’s supporting cast last season, and rightfully so. The numbers show an immense drop off every time he sits. But I don’t think the 17-18 Cavalier Supporting Cast deserves to be trashed by that magnitude, especially after seeing just how dependent they were on LeBron. Almost, if not all, plays went through LeBron. It’s like having your mom take care of every single thing in your life just because she knows how everything works better than you do. You’re just not going to learn how to do stuff if you aren’t allowed to spread your wings a little. Am I saying that they’re better off if they do so? No! But it only means that we can’t know for sure just how well (or poorly) these Cavs would play just because we’ve seen that apart from LeBron, they suffer. The last time Love was surrounded by playmakers and shooters (i.e. Not Jordan Clarkson) while he was cast in a central role, they won 40 games. Now whether that version of Love still exists is up for debate, but I can definitely see the Cavs making the playoffs in a weak conference.
21. DALLAS MAVERICKS
ESPN Projected Record: 33-49
538 Projected Record: 27-55
My Projected Record: 30-52
Players To Watch: Luka Doncic, PG/SG; Dirk Nowitzki, PF/C
The Mavericks better hope that lottery luck would shine upon them (their 2019 pick traded to Atlanta conveys if it lands in the Top 5), because there probably isn’t a reasonable way for them to make the playoffs in the dreadful Western Conference. Once again, Power Rankings aren’t pieces that arrange teams from the best record to the worst, it’s an estimation of the collection of talent a team has, and if you look at their rosters, the Mavericks clearly have better personnel than the Cavaliers. But Dallas would face teams from the West 52(!) times, including four times against the Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans and the Warriors. Doncic would definitely make an immediate impact; Dennis Smith should continue to grow as a facilitator and shooter, while DeAndre Jordan would improve the vertical spacing of the team. It’s admirable from the Mavericks to try and contend for a playoff spot in what looks like Dirk’s final season, but, even with the wizardry of Rick Carlisle, the bloodbath that is the West would prove to be too much for them.
20. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
ESPN Projected Record: 33-49
538 Projected Record: 32-50
My Projected Record: 31-51
Players To Watch: Jaren Jackson Jr, PF/C; Mike Conley, PG
The Grizzlies are becoming a modern NBA team by the day, and for a team that has seemed as old-fashioned as them, this stylistic transformation is still amazing to see. It’s hard to name a Grizzlies player who doesn’t shoot threes. Even Jarell Martin and JaMychal Green let it fly every once in a while. There is no questioning the Grizzlies’ intent – they aim to make the playoffs year in, year out, and for quite a while with their Grit and Grind core, they’ve done so, but now, the league has passed them by and they haven’t been able to keep up in terms of the talent level necessary nowadays to compete in the West. They tried to make a splash in the form of Chandler Parsons (how’d that work out, Grizzlies fans?), and failed miserably. The good thing about their previous season is that they were bad enough to select Jackson, and they are only going as far as he takes them. Along with a potentially healthy Conley and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies are still going to be annoying to play against.
19. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
ESPN Projected Record: 35-47
538 Projected Record: 33-49
My Projected Record: 32-50
Players To Watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG; Tobias Harris, PF
The Clippers are a very fun and guard-heavy team. They are going to run and gun, and they have a collection of players who defend well, especially that starting backcourt of Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. The degree to which the Clippers’ season succeeds depends on their rising star, Harris. Harris has improved to the point where he can be a third cog on a winning team – he’s that good. His range has improved immensely, and his shot creating has only improved from his days with the Magic. He is going to be a matchup problem for teams who still start traditional power forwards, and defensively, he is underrated, as his size can be bothersome for perimeter and interior players alike. What the Clippers don’t have is that night-in, night-out star who you can pencil in to lead the team every night. They will try to do it by committee, led by Harris and reigning Sixth Man of The Year Lou Williams, but there will be plenty of nights where they will face a talent deficit.
18. DETROIT PISTONS
ESPN Projected Record: 38-44
538 Projected Record: 39-43
My Projected Record: 38-44
Players To Watch: Blake Griffin, PF; Stanley Johnson, SF
Griffin and Andre Drummond are infinitely valuable cornerstones… if this were the 80s or the 90s. Both are dominant interior presences who have underrated passing vision, and Dwane Casey is sure going to put both players in positions where they can play off one another’s strengths. However, the league’s playing style has changed by a ton, and the Pistons are really short on wings to capitalize on the interior presences of the two. Reggie Bullock had a nice little breakout, but Johnson, Luke Kennard, Langston Galloway, and Glenn Robinson III don’t move the needle enough to justify the amount the Pistons are paying just to barely make the playoffs. Griffin and Drummond are good enough that they can make it work, and it’s going to be living hell for teams with small frontcourts to deal with the two, but besides them, there really is no one else threatening enough for the Pistons to become more than a mediocrity.
17. MIAMI HEAT
ESPN Projected Record: 43-39
538 Projected Record: 41-41
My Projected Record: 41-41
Players To Watch: Josh Richardson, SG/SF; Bam Adebayo, C; Justise Winslow, PF
Pat Riley is a genius, and he probably thought that the cap would keep on rising exponentially that the contracts they have would remain tradeable and potentially packaged together to get a disgruntled star. Well, it turns out that that’s not the case, and you’d be hard pressed to find a team willing to take on the contracts of Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside, and Kelly Olynyk. The Heat are spending a lot of valuable cap space on players who barely move the championship needle, and they don’t have a true star now that Whiteside has become disgruntled due to the fact that he’s not as big a part of the offense as he had hoped. Goran Dragic is good, but he’s not good enough for the Heat to be more than first-round fodder for the Celtics, Raptors, or, as we saw just this past season, for the 76ers as well. They need Richardson, Adebayo, and Winslow to break out, but with the aforementioned veterans in the way, the opportunity to break out might not be there for them either.
16. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
ESPN Projected Record: 43-39
538 Projected Record: 39-43
My Projected Record: 44-38
Players To Watch: Damian Lillard, PG; C.J. McCollum, SG
Their embarrassing first round exit against the Pelicans shed light on the greatest flaw of their roster – they are overly reliant on the shot and space creation of their lead guards. Their wing depth is non-existent, and they have tied up valuable cap space on below average players such as Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard and this has handicapped their ability to add versatile two-way players to the mix. They don’t have any other players who generate open shots for them like Lillard and McCollum, and once they are blitzed, their other pieces don’t have enough passing and playmaking amongst themselves to make the defense pay for trapping. Lillard played out of his mind last season en route to an All-NBA First Team selection only to lose in the first round, and it’s been noted that he has been critical of some past personnel moves, such as trading away Will Barton and letting Ed Davis go. He has also repeatedly said that he wants to win a chip in Portland, but with how flawed the roster is, it’s hard to see that happening, especially with how brutal the West is, especially this season. Look for Lillard (or McCollum) trade talks to heat up soon.
15. WASHINGTON WIZARDS
ESPN Projected Record: 44-38
538 Projected Record: 48-34
My Projected Record: 46-36
Players To Watch: Dwight Howard, C; John Wall, PG
This team definitely belongs on the #2 spot on the Meme Team Power Rankings, but alas, here they are in the real Power Rankings. They should improve solely on the fact that they replaced a rapidly declining Marcin Gortat with a still functional Dwight Howard, and to their credit, they also improved their bench with the additions of Austin Rivers and Jeff Green. If they are able to set aside their egos and work for the collective good of the team, they are going to be good. It’s just not happening. Bradley Beal has improved so much that it’s fair to wonder whose team this is. How is Wall going to take it if Beal becomes undoubtedly better than him? Or heck, how would the Wizards feel, knowing how much money they have tied up to Wall? This is a team that should threaten the single-season record for players-only meetings. Here’s to hoping the Wizards actually bond and perform to their best because the East could sure use another contender.
14. INDIANA PACERS
ESPN Projected Record: 47-35
538 Projected Record: 43-39
My Projected Record: 47-35
Players To Watch: Victor Oladipo, SG; Myles Turner, C
The surprise team of the 17-18 season, the Pacers shattered basically every expectations fans had for them, especially after the initially disappointing return for their former franchise star, Paul George. They were projected to win a measly 32 games, but Oladipo had something to say about that. I don’t really believe that players leaving Oklahoma City become better – context matters, like Oladipo being the lead guard in Indiana, something that was never going to happen with Russell Westbrook around, but to his credit, he took full advantage of the opportunity handed to him and he hasn’t looked back since. It’s now a matter of surrounding him with other stars, which the Pacers have yet to do. They made solid, yet unspectacular, signings, inking Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott to reasonable contracts, but for the Pacers to make the jump to the upper echelon of the league, they’d need any of Turner, Domantas Sabonis, or even Aaron Holiday to be a star, which looks unlikely, and Indiana has never been an attractive free-agent destination, so signing a star also seems far-fetched. But Indiana has a deep team, and they are a few pieces away from true contention.
13. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
ESPN Projected Record: 47-35
538 Projected Record: 47-35
My Projected Record: 47-35
Players To Watch: Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF/C; Khris Middleton, SG
It’s funny how dominant the Bucks can be in 2K, while being closer to mediocre than elite in the real world. When you look at Milwaukee’s roster construction, it’s a very ideal and complete roster – an all-world superstar (Antetokounmpo), a consistent second option (Middleton), a complementary ball-handling shot creator (Eric Bledsoe), three-and-D specialists (Tony Snell and Malcolm Brogdon), and defensively solid big men (John Henson and Thon Maker). It speaks volumes to the inability of both Jason Kidd and interim coach Joe Prunty to maximize the roster that the Bucks haven’t really made a huge leap despite Antetokounmpo’s massive improvement. With superstars leaving becoming more of a thing by the day, it’s fair to say that the Bucks are on the clock in keeping Giannis. However, with the additions of all-around offensive bigs Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova, along with the hiring of Coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have more firepower than ever that it’d be a disappointment if they don’t make it to the second round.
12. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
ESPN Projected Record: 45-37
538 Projected Record: 52-30
My Projected Record: 46-36
Players To Watch: Derrick Rose, PG; Andrew Wiggins, SF
There’s just no way to predict the West’s top 8, but here I am going out on a limb, saying that the Timberwolves would miss the playoffs (again) after not making the playoffs for 14 seasons before the last. The Timberwolves were so good last year that I might be underrating them a bit – they went 36-25, holding third place in the West before Jimmy Butler went down with a meniscus tear. They proceeded to play at a mediocre clip the rest of the way, going 11-10, before going down in 5 against the Rockets in the first round. With another year of improvement for Karl-Anthony Towns, Wiggins, and with improved continuity, the Timberwolves should be better, but they wouldn’t be. They have a razor-thin bench (hard-capping themselves to sign Anthony Tolliver was… interesting), and with Thibs’ well-documented reputation for running his players into the ground (Towns, Wiggins, and Taj Gibson ranked in the Top 15 in Total Minutes played) and for not playing rookies a lot, if at all, the Wolves are going to run out of gas before the season is all said and done.
11. SAN ANTONIO SPURS
ESPN Projected Record: 44-38
538 Projected Record: 40-42
My Projected Record: 48-34
Players To Watch: DeMar DeRozan, SG; Dejounte Murray, PG; Lonnie Walker, PG/SG
LaMarcus Aldridge did a hell of a job carrying the Spurs throughout last season’s turmoil, and with Pop still at the helm, there’s no doubt that the Spurs will continue to make the playoffs. There are legitimate spacing issues to be concerned about, and the frontcourt is going to be one of, if not the, slowest in the league. However, with Pop’s track record of being the best in bringing out the best in just about everyone and ensuring that their execution is better than that of their opponent, the Spurs are sure to weather the unusual storm the franchise has been through. The loss of Kawhi stings a lot – they were beating up on the Warriors in the 2017 Western Conference Finals before the unfortunate injury that caused the whole fiasco happened. The downgrade from Kawhi to DeRozan is steep, but seeing as to how the Spurs won 47 games with a patchwork roster last season and with All-NBA Second Team member DeRozan essentially replacing a Kawhi that played for 9 unimpressive games, the Spurs should not miss the playoffs, even in the tightly contested West.
10. DENVER NUGGETS
ESPN Projected Record: 47-35
538 Projected Record: 48-34
My Projected Record: 49-33
Players To Watch: Nikola Jokic, C; Isaiah Thomas, PG; Paul Millsap, PF
After two seasons of nearly sneaking into the playoffs, this is the year that the Nuggets finally make it. Jokic played extremely well in the final 15 games of the season as the Nuggets were making their playoff push, averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game on 50/45/87 shooting splits. He is definitely worth a max deal, but it’s important that if you have an extremely flawed, yet still amazing, superstar, you surround him with perfect complementary pieces and it looks like the Nuggets have done quite well, surrounding him with off-ball monsters Gary Harris and Jamal Murray, a slashing guard to relieve some playmaking pressure (Will Barton), and a defensive-minded two-way frontcourt mate (Millsap). They have a wildcard in IT, and if he’s even at 50% of his 2016-17 self, the Nuggets have themselves a steal and a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. They also have a bench that goes 11 deep, and with Jokic leading the way and Millsap hopefully being healthier this upcoming season, the Nuggets are a team on the rise and it’d be a tragedy if they miss out yet again on the postseason.
9. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
ESPN Projected Record: 45-37
538 Projected Record: 46-36
My Projected Record: 49-33
Players To Watch: Anthony Davis, PF/C; Julius Randle, PF/C; Jrue Holiday, PG/SG
The Pelicans played better once Cousins went down with an unfortunate Achilles injury, however, Cousins raised the ceiling of that Pelicans team. A healthy Boogie could have been helpful against the Warriors. But with him gone, their floor improved just because of how defined their identity was without him. They ranked #1 in pace, and they play at such a breakneck speed that it’s impossible to keep up especially if The Brow and Holiday are on fire similar to what we saw during the Playoffs. Losing Rajon Rondo was arguably a bigger blow than losing Boogie, but maybe that’s just me. Randle can provide most of what Boogie gives but he’s a worse shooter, although he’s also less demanding of the ball, not to mention that he has better mobility. With AD playing the 5 (something that he wasn’t as willing to do before due to his wispy body, but with small-ball 5 at the forefront of the pace-and-space revolution, he’s been more suited to play the 5 especially with the mismatch problems he presents), he’s seen better spacing and better lanes to finish at the rim, and with the emergence of Holiday and Nikola Mirotic, the Pelicans are going to be surprisingly better than last season.
8. UTAH JAZZ
ESPN Projected Record: 49-33
538 Projected Record: 54-28
My Projected Record: 50-32
Players To Watch: Donovan Mitchell, SG; Ricky Rubio, PG; Joe Ingles, SF
Have you ever heard or seen someone say that “A rookie beat the Thunder in the First Round! Cry Thunder fans!”? Don’t they know just how disrespectful that was to the Jazz team? Yes, Mitchell carved up the Thunder defense, especially Corey Brewer and Melo’s “defense”, but without the heavy interior presence of both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, the underrated feistiness of Ingles, the wing toughness of Royce O’Neale and Jae Crowder, and especially the pesky two-way playmaking Rubio, the Jazz wouldn’t have been able to beat the Thunder. The Jazz were just so good, especially during the second half of the season. Teams wouldn’t be able to penetrate inside just because of how intimidating Gobert is, and the Jazz just have this unabashed confidence in how they play that their team’s sum is greater than those of their parts. They will not let up and they will be in your grill for 48 minutes a night for every game, and the Jazz would continue to be better, especially if they add another offensive creator that would lessen the burden on Mitchell.
7. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
ESPN Projected Record: 53-29
538 Projected Record: 52-30
My Projected Record: 52-30
Players To Watch: Markelle Fultz, PG; Ben Simmons, PG; Joel Embiid, C
The 76ers are one of those teams that really haven’t sunk in yet as a true contender, especially after years of intentional losing, but here we are, living in a blessed timeline where The Process has succeeded. But here’s where the league is wrong about Sam Hinkie and the Process – they didn’t just suck and draft all the good prospects – they made great trades. How about nabbing Dario Saric and an additional first round pick for Elfrid Payton, or signing Robert Covington while he was still an unknown in the league? How about being the pioneers for the salary dump trades we usually see nowadays, utilizing their cap space to absorb contracts from the Kings to acquire more draft assets? It’s great that the Process has materialized in the way that it has because it promotes smart front-office management – why aim for the middle, overpay average free agents and, in turn, have good free agents sign for cheap? (Looking at you, Boogie.) The 76ers are a product of careful construction, and now, the 76ers have a chance to be true threats to win the championship, especially if Fultz proves trainer Drew Hanlen correct and he shoots the light out this upcoming season.
6. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
ESPN Projected Record: 46-36
538 Projected Record: 46-36
My Projected Record: 52-30
Players To Watch: The Whole Team, except Ivica Zubac, C, and Travis Wear, PF
Ah, the All-Time Meme Squad. Signing Lance Stephenson was funny enough, but signing McGee, then Rondo, then Michael Beasley? To the team that already has Lonzo Ball’s circus, and Kyle Kuzma’s antics? The team might look to be nothing more than a novelty act to ensure fan interest while LeBron bides his time in formulating yet another super team, but when you look at the team that LeBron carried to the Finals last season, this team is going to be miles better defensively and be a smarter team overall. McGee and Beasley might not be the players with the most tightly-screwed heads, but having Rondo and LeBron on the same team, along with Ball’s underrated basketball IQ and feel? Now that is going to make for some fun basketball, and if Brandon Ingram takes the next step feeding off the King, the Lakers are going to be a lot better than people realize.
5. TORONTO RAPTORS
ESPN Projected Record: 55-27
538 Projected Record: 55-27
My Projected Record: 53-29
Players To Watch: Kawhi Leonard, SF; Pascal Siakam, PF/C
Speaking of teams that are going to be better than expected, the Raptors are going to make a lot of noise, especially if Kawhi proves that the awful season he went through last season is a thing of the past. They are very good defensively – they have Kawhi, Danny Green, O.G. Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam as a switchable 2 through 5, and with Kyle Lowry quarterbacking the offense, along with his underrated defense, that lineup is going to be so good. (x4) With Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet, and C.J. Miles returning, the Raptors have an insanely deep rotation. Newly promoted coach Nick Nurse has been credited with the vast offensive overhaul the team underwent last season, and he’s going to be tasked to continue the winning culture set by reigning Coach of The Year Dwane Casey. This is a team that has the potential to be Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and with LeBron out West, the East is now wide-open enough that they have a shot to finally make the Finals.
4. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
ESPN Projected Record: 49-33
538 Projected Record: 53-29
My Projected Record: 54-28
Players To Watch: Dennis Schroder, PG; Nerlens Noel, C
The Thunder was noticeably hitting their stride in late January, only for any realistic championship hopes they had dashed by Andre Roberson’s ruptured patellar tendon. But for multiple reasons, the OK3 experiment just didn’t work out. Acquiring Carmelo Anthony, in a vacuum, wasn’t as bad as some fans would say, but they gave up valuable depth (Enes Kanter) that could have made a difference especially during that Jazz series. And even Melo admitted that the fit just wasn’t
3. HOUSTON ROCKETS
ESPN Projected Record: 57-25
538 Projected Record: 54-28
My Projected Record: 57-25
Players To Watch: Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF; James Ennis, SF; Michael Carter-Williams, PG
No one is expecting much out of Melo, but as someone who intently watched the Thunder last season, Melo is going to contribute a lot more to the Rockets than he did with the Thunder. He’s not going to replace Ariza’s versatility on defense, but he’s going to receive more wide open shots, he’s going to receive the ball in much more space than he did just because he has more shooters around him, and the ball will be going to his pocket a lot more often due to the sheer playmaking prowess of both Chris Paul and Harden. For a team that’s ducking the luxury tax (it’s another thing to discuss entirely – for a team that came one win away from making the finals and most probably winning the title, it’s questionable that they won’t pony up to retain the roster), acquiring even something close to what Ariza provides can be enough, but still, it’s hard not to think about just how much defensive versatility they lost with Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute fleeing. They’re still going to be a great team, but clearly, they’ve become worse than last season. The question is: just how much worse are the Rockets from last year?
2. BOSTON CELTICS
ESPN Projected Record: 58-24
538 Projected Record: 53-29
My Projected Record: 58-24
Players To Watch: Gordon Hayward, SF; Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Jayson Tatum, SF/PF
The Celtics have all the tools necessary to top the Warriors. They have a potentially entirely switchable defense, the most enviable collection of wings in the league, and inarguably one of the top 3 coaches in the league in Brad Stevens. They have elite scorers in Kyrie Irving, Hayward, and Tatum; they have elite secondary scoring playmakers in Brown, Marcus Morris, and Al Horford; they have one of the most tenacious defensive backcourts in Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart. They don’t even have to push all their chips in the regular season; they can afford to ease Irving and Hayward back just because of how well Stevens enables his team to play their best and with how the confidence levels of Rozier and Tatum, among others, remain sky high after balling out in the playoffs where no one expected much out of them especially with their best players out with injury. They are the deepest and most flexible team in the league, and if every one of their core players remains healthy throughout the postseason, the Celtics are going to be heavy favorites to meet the Warriors come June.
1. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
ESPN Projected Record: 61-21
538 Projected Record: 64-18
My Projected Record: 60-22
Player To Watch: DeMarcus Cousins, C
They have somewhat true depth problems, and if Andre Iguodala suffers yet another injury at an inopportune time, the Warriors may find those concerns legitimate. They are counting on Jacob Evans to be a legitimate contributor, and while the Warriors’ track record of drafting has been impressive, it’s highly unlikely that Evans would provide immediate two-way impact. At least Nick Young was dependable to provide some spacing and, if locked in, he was a defensive pest, too. Jonas Jerebko is a good addition to provide some shooting, but he’s not a defender, and he’s going to be unplayable against the best of ballhandlers. But everytime your roster’s core is made up of three of the best shooters of all time, a perennial Defensive Player of The Year Candidate, and now, once healthy, a nightly 20-10 threat that provides a complementary interior scoring presence to relieve some pressure off the perimeter superstars (as if that was necessary), everything is just nitpicking at this point. There would come a time where the Warriors dynasty is nothing but a distant memory, falling victim to being perceived of as the ones responsible for breaking the league, but they’re just that good – they play a level of basketball unmatched by any team in the planet. And it all started with drafting a scrawny, 6’3 Point Guard out of Davidson. Sometimes, in life, you just never know. And with the Warriors, we never know when we’re ever going to see a collection of talent playing to the best of their abilities to create some of the best brand of basketball anyone’s ever witnessed ever again, so let’s sit back, relax, enjoy the season and the Warriors in all their glory.
Warriors over the Raptors in 6.
Guess the Lakers players!
