Najee Harris fantasy outlook: Is Steelers RB worth drafting in 2023 amid Jaylen Warren’s ascension?

The Pittsburgh Steelers begin a new season with optimism surrounding running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, giving cause to believe that their offense can be productive.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett also comes into the season with more experience, and that should lift the spirits of the whole organization. Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing season as coach, and many expect that to hold this year, despite playing in the tougher conference.

However, when it comes to fantasy football, one has to dig a lot deeper. After all, it's all about individual achievements and points.

In that regard, we have to explore how much value Najee Harris might bring to his fantasy football manager, especially given the emergence of Jaylen Warren.

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Najee Harris' 2023 Fantasy Outlook

The case for Najee Harris is that he's extremely durable, having played in all 17 games in both seasons he has been part of the NFL. He got a league-leading number of attempts on the ball. In both 2021 and 2022, he had seven rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns.

Look beneath the surface, though, and we can see a decline in production. In 2021, he had 1,200 rushing yards and 467 receiving yards. In 2022, that came down to 1,034 rushing yards and 229 receiving yards. His yards per carry and receptions dropped from 3.9 to 3.8 yards and 6.3 to 5.6 yards, respectively.

Najee Harris' value comes from the amount of touches he gets. However, that's in jeopardy with the rise of Jaylen Warren.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to use Jaylen Warren more on third-down and redzone situations, meaning that expected touchdown numbers for Harris are expected to decrease.

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Is Najee Harris a good pick in Fantasy Football this year?

Much of Najee Harris' value came from his additional production in receiving over the last two seasons, apart from his running game.

However, the offense is expected to change this year, and he's not expected to get as many receiving targets as previous seasons. We saw it decrease significantly from 94 in 2021 to 53 targets in 2022.

Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will look to improve from last year, and there's belief that could happen with them developing more of a rapport with Kenny Pickett.

Allen Robinson has also joined and will look to revitalize his career. Pat Freiermuth at the tight end position will also look to catch some passes and increase his production.

With a changing offense that focuses more on receiving and Jaylen Warren emerging in the offensive backfield, Najee Harris does not look to be a top alternative for the running back position relative to his ADP.

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Where should you draft Najee Harris this year with Jaylen Warren on the rise?

Najee Harris finished as RB1 in fantasy football eight times in the 2021 season. That dropped to just three in 2022. With the emergence of a better passing game and Jaylen Warren, he should not go at as high a value as he's being projected.

Based on his current ADP, he should be available in the third round. The likes of Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne should be available in this range and might represent better value.

Much of his value in fantasy came from the volume of plays he was running, not because of his actual output on the ground.

As mentioned earlier, in each season, his yards per carry were below four. Jaylen Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his rookie season. Therefore, fantasy football managers should avoid taking him in the second or third round and go lower.