NASCAR at Bristol: Vegas odds, fantasy advice, prediction, sleepers, drivers to watch
Betting favorites and fantasy sleepers for Saturday night's Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.
Kyle Busch has five career Cup Series wins at Bristol Motor Speedway, but he hasn't been a fan of the track since it reduced banking in the upper groove in 2012.
Busch and brother Kurt are tied for the most Cup wins at Bristol, but Kyle has nine fewer starts at the track with 24. The younger Busch brother hasn't won there since March 2011, but his Toyota teammates sure have spent time at the front.
Matt Kenseth, who needs a win to secure a spot in the playoffs, has the most top-five finishes (14) and top 10s (21) among active Cup drivers at Bristol, along with four wins. Martin Truex Jr., who is a co-favorite along with Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, owns the fourth-best driver rating over the last five races at Bristol.
Earlier this season at Bristol, Jimmie Johnson, who entered the race at 10/1 odds, passed Kevin Harvick with 21 laps remaining and held on for the win. This time around Harvick is at 10/1 and is our pick to win Saturday. Harvick leads all active drivers with five runner-up finishes at the half-mile track and owns a 4.3 average finish over his last four races there.
For handicapping purposes, the most similar track to Bristol is Dover, another high-banking, concrete track. Kyle Larson led a combined 443 laps in April's Bristol race and June's Dover contest. It's no surprise he's one of the favorites on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
What are the Las Vegas odds for the NASCAR race at Bristol?
Here are the race odds according to Westgate Sportsbook:
Kyle Busch 4/1
Martin Truex Jr. 4/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Chase Elliott 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Joey Logano 20/1
Ryan Blaney 30/1
Erik Jones 30/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Daniel Suarez 60/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 60/1
Ricky Stenhouse 60/1
Kasey Kahne 80/1
Ryan Newman 80/1
Austin Dillon 80/1
Trevor Bayne 200/1
Aric Almirola 300/1
Ty Dillon 300/1
Paul Menard 300/1
Chris Buescher 300/1
AJ Allmendinger 500/1
Danica Patrick 500/1
Michael McDowell 1000/1
Field (all others) 100/1
Who are the sleepers to win the NASCAR race at Bristol?
Already with two wins under his belt this season, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. heads to one of his favorite tracks in Bristol. He has three top-five finishes in nine career starts at Thunder Valley to go along with a 10.4 average finish.
One of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series may be Daniel Suarez. Over the last six races, Carl Edwards' replacement in the No. 19 Toyota owns an average finish of 13.0 with four top 10s. Bristol was one of Edwards' best tracks and it's not unusual for race teams to hold on to successful setups from the past.
Which drivers are best for fantasy NASCAR in Bristol?
Paul Menard (20 starts) leads the series in starts with the fewest DNFs (0) at Bristol while Chase Elliott leads the series among active drivers in average finishing position with a 8.7.
For fantasy purposes, laps led at Bristol's short track is more important than place-differential. The top three drivers in laps led at Bristol and Dover's similar layout over the past five races are: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch.
Trevor Bayne is a driver to target in order to save salary and provide elite upside. Bayne, teammate of Stenhouse, has finishes of 5, 12, and 11 over the last three races at Bristol. Same goes for Ty Dillon, who finished 15th in Bristol's April race and 14th at Dover.