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In some sense, both of these teams weren't supposed to be here. At some point of this 2017-18 regular season, both these teams weren't expected to finish as high as they have.
For the Portland Trail Blazers, 'being one piece away' is all they heard and although they didn't necessarily get that this offseason, they've improved by huge leaps and bounds as compared to their 8th seed finish last season. If it wasn't for a mini-slump of four straight losses towards the end, they would have cruised to a 3rd seed finish and their first 50-win season since LaMarcus Aldridge left. Either way, by defeating on the Utah Jazz in their season finale, they locked up the 3rd seed (49-33) anyway but they fell just one win short of 50.
The New Orleans Pelicans' experiment to field two big men was working out quite well this season (27-21) before DeMarcus Cousins went down with an injured left Achilles. But was that a blessing in disguise? The injury unlocked MVP candidate Anthony Davis, who went on a furious run to carry the Pelicans to a 21-13, which in turn ensured the team makes it to their second postseason in the Davis era despite a very competitive Western Conference.
Strengths
Portland Trail Blazers
Historically since Aldridge departed in 2015, the Blazers (top 11 last two seasons) have not needed help on offense with the likes of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Their defense was a concern, however, and once again their guard duo was under the spotlight. Everybody speculated that one of the two had to go, given how undersized they are but this season the Blazers have built a great defensive scheme nonetheless.
The 2017-18 season was the first one where the team didn't need to make any major adjustment to their roster since the summer of 2015 when they basically lost four of their five starters. In the 2015-16 season, it was a brand-new team. The following season, they had to reconfigure their schemes slightly in the end with the Jusuf Nurkic-Mason Plumlee trade with the Denver Nuggets. This year, there was none of that, and so with a set roster, they've gone from being a bottom 10 defense the last two years to being ranked 8th in defensive efficiency.
They rank fifth in defensive rebounds and defensive rebound percentage. That helps them control every way their opponents are going to score - opposition points off turnovers (6th), opposition fastbreak points (10th), opposition points in the paint (3rd) and opposition second-chance points (9th).
It's been all about defense this year to the point that their offense has slipped slightly (top 11 last two years to 16th), which is fine when you have two dependable guys who can turn it up when it matters - the Playoffs.
New Orleans Pelicans
Having Anthony Davis is the team's biggest strength. Nine times of the 10, the team with the best player in a series is favored to win it and Davis certainly swings the tide in their favor with respect to this.
His MVP-worthy season - 28.1 points (2nd), 11.1 rebounds (5th), 2.6 blocks (leads the league), 2.3 assists - has led the Pelicans to a more than respectable 6th seed. Every team advantage that the Pelicans have nurtured heading into the Playoffs is built around Davis' talent and capabilities.
Looking at the numbers, there's no doubt about the fact that Cousins' injury is a blessing in disguise. That coupled with the trade for Nikola Mirotic with the Chicago Bulls has seen this franchise take off since late January. Since Cousins' injury, they've grown into a more matured defensive outfit, holding the fifth-best defensive efficiency in the period.
While their offensive efficiency is ranked 17th in the same period, their offense has generally been good and didn't necessarily need fixing. For the entire season, the team ranked comfortably at the top of the league in major categories - points averaged (111.7 - 3rd best), assists (26.8 - 3rd-best) and field goal percentage (48.3% - 2nd-best).
Weakness
Portland Trail Blazers:
As earlier mentioned, the Blazers are heavily dependent on their center rotation and wings to ensure their defense is top-notch, something they have shown all season.
Mo Harkless, although not a huge contributor, is a key part of the team's rotation. He is a huge asset to the team's schemes of switching and creating match-up problems in the frontcourt. Although ranked well, their defense isn't great at forcing turnovers - opponent turnovers (12.6 - 29th) and steals (7.0 - 26th).
For a defense, that's built on a team playing together, it doesn't help that they are going to miss a key wing player. And unfortunately, he's scheduled to miss the first round due to an arthroscopic left knee surgery.
Another small possible weakness is the reserves' Playoff experience. Three key rotation players - Zach Collins, Shabazz Napier, and Pat Connaughton - have close to no recognizable Playoff experience. Also, they have survived the season without their offense completely clicking and we are assuming Lillard and McCollum will carry them in the postseason but relying on them far too much is a recipe for disaster.
New Orleans Pelicans
Doing it because of a necessity is one thing but can the Pelicans sustain their regular season momentum, which they picked up after Cousins, into the Playoffs. That's the question which Game 1 will answer but it's a huge question. Portland has been doing what they are doing all season, whereas the New Orleans has been doing only over the past month, that too out of necessity, with no other option but to play through Davis.
When a team like the Blazers studies the scouting report, do the Pelicans have the talent and ability to change on the fly?
With or without Cousins, the Pelicans defense is ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of points per game given up. For the entire season, they are ranked 29th, whereas that number improves to 21st since Cousins' injury.
Another underrated weakness, similar to that of the Blazers, is the Pelicans' possibly playing through AD on every play. The Blazers are smart enough to adjust and if someone else doesn't step up, this is going to be a short series for New Orleans.
Opportunities and Threats
This game will be decided by how the action unfolds in the paint.
With respect to three-point makes, attempts and efficiency, both teams are neck-and-neck. Portland (16th) makes 10.3 three's a game while New Orleans make 10.2 (18th), and both aren't far apart on attempts as well - Pelicans (28.2 - 18th), Blazers (28.1 - 19th). So it's quite obvious, they'll be very close by on efficiency as well but the paint game is another story altogether.
The Pelicans, for the season, are second-best in the number of field goals made (42.7) and 46.9% of those points come in the paint, which ranks them third best in the league. And as mentioned earlier, the Blazers are great rim protectors, ranking third in opposition's points in the paints.
Which team will fold?
Will Davis force Portland to become a bad rim protector, which open the series up because both teams are almost alike on shooting from distance or will the Blazers restrict the Pelicans and seize control of the game with their defense?
Only time will tell.
X-Factor:
Portland Trail Blazers - Jusuf Nurkic
This might sound tiringly repetitive but Portland's good defense depends a lot on their wing rotation and centers. Whether it's switches or rotations, Nurkic when in the right mindset, can wreck havoc. The Blazers make him guard the relatively immobile big on their opponent's roster. It's going to be difficult for him, matchup-wise, against the Pelicans but he can play a huge role if he makes use of that mismatch on the offensive end as well.
New Orleans Pelicans - Rajon Rondo
Is Playoff Rondo a real thing?
Well, it's time the 2008 Champion show that it is. After dropping off since his Celtics' days, his career has seen some sort of a revival the last two season with the Chicago Bulls and now the Pelicans. He's might be a defensive liability for his size but he can more than make for it with his high IQ by getting into the passing lanes and forcing fastbreak points in the paint, something the Pelicans lead the league in.
Prediction
The Pelicans might have the best player in the series but quite clearly the Blazers are deeper and have a better team all around. Portland fought hard to ensure they have home court advantage for this series but I think they won't need it. Their team's core has been together for far longer than that of the Pelicans and I think that counts for something. So I predict, they'll steal one in New Orleans and wrap this series up in six games.
Portland Trail Blazers 4-2 New Orleans Pelicans
Guess the Lakers players!
