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The Milwaukee Bucks, after flirting with homecourt advantage for the first couple of months this season, hit the ground later on and fell to the 7th seed in the Conference thanks to a blowout loss against the Philadelphia 76ers in their final regular season game. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks will fight tooth and nail to advance past the first round for the first time since the 2000-01 season (when they made it to the Conference Finals).
With Kyrie Irving missing for the Boston Celtics, this series will play out much more evenly than it would've with Uncle Drew fit and firing for the 17-time champions. However, the Celtics have received big contributions from players who were in role-playing capacity before Irving's injury in mid-March, and they can beat Milwaukee with their defensive schemes (they led the league in defensive efficiency through the regular season).
In a sense, the Celtics are a 'false' #2 seed, since they enter this series as the underdogs. In this piece, we break down for you the specifics of this exciting first-round series from the Eastern Conference playoffs.
#1 Strengths
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have the advantage of having sturdy interior defenders and a defensive scheme that makes it tough for opponents to score off layups and 3-pointers - the two most productive scoring zones in the half-court set on a points-per-possession basis.
Opponents shoot only 34.0% of their 3-point shot attempts against the Celtics - this is a league-leading figure. The Celtics also allow their opponents to convert only 44.0% of their field goal attempts, ranking them 2nd in the league behind the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Celtics' big man combination of Al Horford, Aron Baynes, and Greg Monroe should prove to be more than a handful for the Bucks to deal with, given their combination of size and finesse on the offensive end and their defensive acumen on the other side of the ball.
The Celtics have been great at generating open looks for their marksmen from deep, resulting in Al Horford and Jayson Tatum ranking among the top 10 3-point shooters in the league this season. Overall, they rank 2nd in the league in 3-point percentage at a 37.7% conversion rate.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks' brand of proactive defense does pay off in box score stats, as they rank 2nd in the league in steals per game (8.8) - the likes of Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon and Giannis are all among the top 50 thieves for the regular season. The Bucks also rank a credible 5th in blocks per game (5.4).
The Bucks' preferred starting five of Bledsoe, Brogdon, Middleton, Giannis, and Henson is averaging a spectacular net rating of 11.4 points per 100 possessions while inserting Tony Snell into Brogdon's place in this lineup also yields them a rude net rating of 7.0 points per game.
Replacing Bledsoe with Snell while running with Brogdon at the point guard position also gives them a really good rating of 9.6 points per 100 possessions, albeit on a smaller sample size. Basically, the Bucks' starting five have been way better than their regular season record would suggest.
#2 Weaknesses
Boston Celtics:
The lack of a featured scorer will hurt the Celtics' chances a lot in this series. While the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris and Al Horford have all got the capacity to score 20 points or more in particular games, they haven't put together any sort of scoring streak this season to suggest that they could really do this consistently in a 7-game playoff series.
As a whole, the Celtics shoot poorly in comparison to the league average, ranking 21st in field goal percentage and 18th in offensive efficiency. This lack of true offensive firepower could hurt them big-time in playoff time.
Like most other NBA teams, the Celtics also lack any player with the capability of guarding Giannis effectively. The Greek Freak has had a field day on all 4 of his outings against the Celtics this season. He's logged 33.5 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game against the C's - his points-per-game average against the Celtics ranks 2nd among all the NBA opposition he's faced this season.
Milwaukee Bucks:
The Bucks have possibly the worst center rotation in the league. Thon Maker and John Henson are both ineffective on offense, as well as no upside defensively. They also let go of Greg Monroe in order to acquire Eric Bledsoe, and Monroe winded up in the Celtics roster, looking better than either of these two.
Their defense, overall, is an issue as well. Despite having great players individually, the Bucks allow opponents to score off 37.2% of their 3-point attempts - a figure that's tied for the 3rd worst in the league.
They also don't have a featured threat from downtown, ranking 28th in percentage of points off 3-pointers. Other than Tony Snell and Khris Middleton, none of their main rotation players have the ability to get going from downtown, and this allows the Celtics to concentrate on interior defense.
#3 Opportunities and threats
Boston Celtics
In Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics have 2 of the best slashers in the conference. Setting them up in pick-and-roll scenarios with Horford/Morris will give them a double threat situation, which they can capitalize on for some easy buckets.
The Celtics will have a chance to dominate the Bucks inside the paint with their size advantage. In addition, they will look to also exploit the Bucks' poor 3-point defensive schemes, setting up Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris and Al Horford beyond the arc with drive-and-kick plays from Rozier or Jaylen Brown.
The Celtics, due to the lack of a featured scorer, are liable to give up scoring runs to the Bucks without answers on the offensive end. They will also face great difficulty in making runs of their own. Thus, the Bucks have a much greater chance of causing big momentum shifts in close games, and Giannis' scoring threat will play a role in this as well.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have a bunch of nice slashers of their own, as Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Giannis are all capable of scoring off drives using their speed and athleticism (in the case of Giannis, his length and his ability to change hands on drives).
They are great at forcing turnovers from opposition teams, ranking 2nd in the league in opponent turnovers per game at 15.6. They also have the aforementioned 3 players to use these opportunities in transition to score on the fast break - Giannis ranks 2nd in the league in fast-break points per game.
Possibly the greatest threat the Bucks will face in the series is the possibility of their second-string getting outplayed by the Celtics' bench. Despite having a great starting five, the Bucks bench comprises of only Jabari Parker as a volume scorer. During the regular season, their bench had a net rating of -3.9 points per 100 possessions (22nd in the league) - a definite cause for concern against the deep Celtics.
#4 X-Factor
Boston Celtics - Marcus Morris
In order to compensate for Kyrie Irving's loss, the Celtics will probably look to Marcus Morris coming off the bench to put up high scoring numbers and keep the scoreboard ticking. Morris has had a sensational month of March, in which he scored a team-high 18.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and a mind-boggling 46.7% from outside the arc.
He has the skillset to score from mid-range, via post-ups as well as from the 3-point line, but what has been lacking through Morris' stop-start NBA career is consistency. If he gets buckets for the Celtics as their main scorer against the Bucks, those questions will cease.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jabari Parker
As far as the Milwaukee Bucks go, the playoffs are the time for Jabari Parker to rise and shine, in order to make himself worthy of the max dollars that he'll definitely be looking for after his rookie contract expires this summer.
He definitely has the skillset to do it and in limited playing time this season he's already given us glimpses from his 2016/17 season when he was scoring over 20 points per game before going down with an ACL injury. If Jabari gets hot, the Bucks will run away with the series.
#5 Prediction
As a general rule, the team with the best player has the best chance of winning a playoff series. In this case, the Bucks have an advantage over most teams in the league, since Giannis is right there among the top 10 best players in the world. What's more, he can do it on both ends of the floor.
No team or player can scheme for an athletic specimen of the Greek Freak variety, and his play will be the difference in the upcoming playoff series. The Celtics, holding homecourt advantage, might well be able to steal 2 games, but Giannis will guide the Bucks to a second-round matchup against Philadelphia or Miami.
Bucks beat the Celtics 4-2
Guess the Lakers players!
