Diagnosing the Houston Rockets shocking start to the 2015-16 season

Dwight’s expression says it all

The Houston Rockets have a 3-3 record, which by the championship hopes placed on this team at the start of this season, is a disappointment. But even that does not talk about how bad the Rockets have been.

Houston started off the season with three horrible losses, losing by 20 points in all three games. Not only has every team which started off that badly failed to make the postseason, none of those teams even won 20 games. And in Houston’s three wins, their combined margin of victory was just 16 points, even though two of those games were against below average teams in Sacramento and Orlando.

No one will suggest that Houston will fail to win more than 20 games this season. But there are real problems with this team as it is right now.

The big problem is James Harden. Harden’s shot has dropped off a cliff, as he is shooting just 20 percent from three-point range compared to about 36 percent throughout his NBA career. And this is an improvement, as it was as low as 9 percent in the first few games.

Some of that shooting can just be attributed to missing open shots, and that should self-correct, in time. But the problem is that Harden has attempted far too many pull-up three-pointers, and seems to be forcing shots in the hope that things will get better sooner rather than later.

Harden forcing shots was not supposed to happen. Ty Lawson’s arrival was supposed to give him breathing room and relieve Harden of the pressure of creating every shot for the Rockets. Lawson has had his moments, especially in Houston’s victory against the Orlando Magic. But Harden is still dominating the ball far more than was expected earlier this season, and this stagnates a Houston offense which was supposed to be moving a lot more than it has.

There is also the big man issue. Power forward Donatas Motiejunas underwent back surgery in April which was supposed to have a recovery period of one to two months, but he is still sidelined with no timetable of his return. The other power forward, Terrence Jones, had his right eye scratched by Steph Curry and has been out for the past four games.

This means that the Rockets have just three healthy big men – Dwight Howard, Clint Capela, and rookie Montrezl Harrell. And Coach Kevin McHale is not playing Howard on both nights of back-to-back games, of which Houston has already had two. Furthermore, none of these big men can shoot, and McHale is determined not to play two of them at the same time due to spacing concerns.

This means that Harden, Trevor Ariza, and Corey Brewer have spent time manning the power forward slot in a series of small-ball lineups. But while this helps the spacing, this does not help protect the glass or guard the rim. In Houston’s loss against the Miami Heat, center Hassan Whiteside dominated a Rockets team without Howard, and Aaron Gordon also helped Orlando control the glass in their game against Houston.

The Rockets have played just six games so far, with another game against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. At the six game mark last year, the Sacramento Kings and Miami Heat were two of the best teams in the league, only to end up in the lottery as the season dragged on.

So there is plenty of time for Motiejunas and Jones to recover, and for the Rockets to develop an actual motion offense. But while Houston has won three straight after those three devastating losses, Rockets fans should remain highly concerned about how this team has looked so far.