NBA 2018-19: 5 Most Ridiculous Vegas Over/Under Odds

Like in every summer, after teams finish their main offseason moves, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook publishes its over/under odds for win totals ahead of the upcoming season. The numbers listed by Westgate, one of the senior sports books in Vegas, aim to predict the likely win total of a team, based on their how their roster took shape during the summer.

But they're not always so close to the eventual number.

Last year, for example, Indiana's win over/under stood at 30.5, probably affected by the Paul George trade. Vegas odd-makers couldn’t predict Victor Oladipo's meteoric rise that led the Pacers to a 48 win total. On the other hand, they also overestimated Memphis' odds. Their over/under was set at 38.5 before the season, but thanks to the season-ending injury to Mike Conley, the Grizzlies won just 22 games.

However, the numbers are not always supposed to reflect a team's realistic potential; they are often influenced by flashy offseason moves that change public opinion. A betting establishment's main objective is to make more people place their bets with them, so when a high profile player changes teams and creates buzz, odds will swing to attract additional gamblers.

So with the official over/under odds in, let's assess which teams will finish with a win total far from the one suggested by the sports book.

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers - 30.5, Over

Toronto Raptors v Cleveland Cavaliers - Game Four — Kevin Love should be enough to keep Cleveland from falling apart

This is the classic case of overreaction to a free agent signing, leading to a radical over/under drop.

LeBron's decision to leave Cleveland Cavaliers sent the NBA world into a frenzy, and that includes Las Vegas. People were immediately thrown back to the summer of 2010 when LeBron left the Cavs for the first time. Despite Dan Gilbert's claims, saying Cleveland will win a title before LeBron will in Miami, the Cavaliers quickly became the worst team in the league. Many people figured this will happen again this year, hence Westgate's attempt to capitalize.

However, Cleveland is in a very different situation. Back then, the Cavaliers were a failing franchise and their best player was a 34-year-old Antawn Jamison. Today, they are former NBA champions and are led by an All-Star caliber player, Kevin Love, and a promising rookie, Colin Sexton.

Yes, LeBron's departure will cost the Cavs more than a few wins, but they won't be as bad as this over/under implies. They will try to contend for a playoff spot and are more likely to finish around 40 wins in a weak Eastern Conference.

#2 Memphis Grizzlies - 34.5, Under

Portland Trail Blazers v Memphis Grizzlies - Game One — Memphis win total will hang on Conley and Gasol's ability

The Grizzlies can make a habit out of throwing off sportsbooks. After finishing with 16 fewer wins than their over/under odds last year, Memphis just might do it again this year.

The 22-win Grizzlies somehow found themselves in the mid-thirties of the win total odds again this year. That will depend on how Mike Conley will return from his heel injury, but even then it will be difficult to live up to that number.

Most Western Conference teams upgraded this summer, making the conference even better. They will face opponents who, much like them, want to make a postseason appearance. But is it necessarily the best course of action for them?

Memphis' first-round pick in 2019 will go to Boston if it falls outside the first eight. Trying to make the playoffs and failing will put them in a lose-lose situation; out of the postseason and without a draft pick.

The Grizzlies will more likely try to salvage their first rounder or trade one of their assets to get another pick, affecting their record by the end of the season.

#3 San Antonio Spurs - 43.5, Over

2018 USA Basketball Men's National Team Minicamp — DeRozan with new coach, Gregg Popovich

The Kawhi Leonard trade probably affects this number the most. The Spurs won 47 games last year, in a very competitive conference, with Leonard playing in just nine games

So why the low number?

Again, those odds are a result of potential gamblers' perception of how the Spurs will suffer from losing Kawhi. If enough people think San Antonio will be worse, the team's odds will resemble that.

However, from a basketball perspective, that shouldn’t be the case.

In exchange for Kawhi, the Spurs received All-Star DeMar DeRozan and backup center Jakob Poeltl. Adding these two to a team that finished just two wins away from the third seed the year before, is more likely to add to the win total, rather than the other way around.

Westgate's aim here is to lure people to bet under while making sure the number is low enough for that bet to be wrong. San Antonio will have a similar season to the last one, finishing closer to 50.

#4 New York Knicks - 29.5, Under

Dallas Mavericks v New York Knicks — Only a speedy recovery from Porzingis will help the Knicks

Despite the impressive addition of head coach David Fizdale, this season is going to be a long one for Knicks fans.

The Knicks failed to make the playoffs in the last five seasons, and this year shouldn’t be so much different. If their roster wasn’t bad enough to begin with, Kristaps Porzingis' injury ends the conversation on NY's chances to challenge a playoff spot.

After the Latvian tore his ACL, the Knicks won just six of their final 27 games of that season. According to reports, Porzingis is scheduled to return around February, meaning he will likely miss between 50 to 60 games this season. With their star player out for the majority of the season, the Knicks are expected to carry their poor form from the end of the previous season.

Even though they're not the worse team in the Eastern Conference on paper and have a potential rookie of the year candidate in Kevin Knox, once you remove Porzingis from the team, you get one that could finish with a win total closer to 20.

#5 Los Angeles Lakers - 48.5, Under

Los Angeles Lakers Introduce 2018 Draft Picks — Are the Lakers good enough to win 50 games?

The Los Angeles Lakers won 35 games last year with a roster of young players and experienced players on 1-year contracts. With the arrival of LeBron James to La-La-Land, expectations are higher, as they should be, but isn’t this number a little too high?

A key to LeBron's success with the Cavs was three-point shooting. The Cavs were top-10 in the league in three-point percentage for the last four years in a row. The Lakers, on the other hand, were second last in that field last year and didn’t acquire enough shooters to change that.

Additionally, aside from LeBron, this is still a group of young guys and veterans on expiring contracts. Betting on James to improve this team by around 15 wins on his own in one year seems like a stretch.

The Lakers will probably make the playoffs, mostly because they have the best player in the world, but counting on him to transform the team to a Western Conference powerhouse without fitting pieces is a huge bet, one that Westgate would love you to make.