OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction and Betting Tips - May 11

The Denver Nuggets will take on the OKC Thunder at home in one of two playoff games set for Sunday. Heading into Game 4, the Nuggets lead the series 2-1. The Thunder struggled to close out Games 1 and 3 but dominated in Game 2, winning 149-106.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. will look to tie things up before they head back to Oklahoma for Game 5.

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Preview, Prediction, Starting Lineups and Betting Tips

The Thunder-Nuggets game is scheduled to tip off at 3:30 p.m. ET from the Ball Arena this Sunday. Fans can stream the game live via NBA League Pass and FuboTV.

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Moneyline: Thunder (-235) vs Nuggets (+195)

Odds: Thunder (-5.5) vs. Nuggets (+5.5)

Total (O/U): Thunder (o227.5 -110) vs. Nuggets (u227.5 -110)

Editor's note: The odds could change closer to tipoff, as the odds listed were based on available information at the time of writing.

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Preview

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The Nuggets and the Thunder have gone back and forth the entire series, apart from Game 2, which was a historical blowout victory for OKC. Shai Gigeous-Alexander paved the path to the 149-106 win, recording 34 points, shooting 11-for-13. The two times OKC has lost in this series are when Denver makes life hard for Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Nuggets swarmed him on defense in Game 3, holding him to 18 points on 7-for-22 shooting. Chet Holmgren also had a rough night and finished with 18 points while going 7-for-19. Jalen Williams was the only player with 20+ points, recording 32 points and five assists.

Despite his big performance, the Nuggets ran away with the win, scoring 11 points in overtime; the Thunder were held to two points. Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon combined for 88 points.

The Nuggets’ game plan for Sunday is likely to involve some kind of defensive arrangement to limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If they succeed, a 3-1 lead is well within their sight.

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Predicted Starting Lineup

Thunder

PG: Shai Gilegeous-Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | PF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein

Nuggets

PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Betting Tips

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went under his player prop of 32.5 points in Game 3, finishing his night with 18 points. The Nuggets have found a way to limit Gilgeous-Alexander with their physical defense and will look to lock him down on Sunday. It wouldn’t be surprising if Shai misses his points prop for Game 4 as well.

Nikola Jokic has been doing everything for his team this playoffs, recording 25.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. Even when he’s having an off night from the field, Jokic still makes a difference by running Denver’s offense and crashing the glass. He is averaging 15.3 rebounds per game and is likely to go over his rebound prop for Game 4.

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Western Conference semifinals series between the Thunder and the Nuggets has been a slugfest so far. The Nuggets have looked sharper and seem to be playing with more heart, led by Jokic. Expect the Nuggets to take a hard-fought victory and a 3-1 series lead on Sunday.

Our prediction: The Nuggets will win

About the author

Sameer is an esports and gaming journalist at Sportskeeda who covers a diverse range of topics. He is currently pursuing a BSc degree from BITS, but his love for video games pushed him to pursue a gaming journalism career. He relies on diligent research and fact-checking to deliver top-notch content. He has previously worked in the hospitality sector with the Oberoi Group.

Sameer’s gaming journey began with Rockstar Games’ GTA franchise, specifically
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories. He strongly prefers multiplayer games, with FPS being his favorite genre, and has devoted 6K+ hours to CS:GO! However, he also dabbles in open-world, story-based games from time to time. Solo RPGs like Horizon Forbidden West hold a soft spot in his heart, and he would readily drop in it given a Jumanji-type scenario.

Sameer makes sure to follow Counter-Strike and Valorant esports tournaments, as he believes that watching a game being played at the highest level can be highly educational. He derives inspiration from Tarik's meteoric rise to become one of the biggest FPS streamers in the world following the release of Valorant.

Outside of work, you can find Sameer playing football or cheering for FC Barcelona. He also likes to read and write poetry.

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Edited by nagpaltusharn25

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction and Betting Tips - May 11 | 2025 NBA Playoffs, Game 4