OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction and Betting Tips - May 9 | 2025 NBA Playoffs, Game 3

After becoming the first home team to notch a win in this year’s conference semifinals, the OKC Thunder head to Denver for Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets on Friday.

So far, the series has featured contrasting outcomes: Denver rallied to steal Game 1 with a last-second triple by Aaron Gordon, while the Thunder answered back with a dominant Game 2 blowout to even the series.

Here’s a preview of Game 3 of the OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets second-round series, scheduled to tip off at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver.

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OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Preview and Odds

Moneyline: Thunder (-190) vs Nuggets (+154)

Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110) vs Nuggets +4.5 (-110)

Total (O/U): Thunder o233.5 (-110) vs Nuggets u233.5 (-110)

Editor's note: The odds could change close to the game. The odds listed were as per available information at the time of writing.

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OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets preview

The Thunder come in riding high after obliterating the Nuggets 149-106 in Game 2.

They completely locked up Denver, holding Nikola Jokic to just 17 points while forcing six turnovers — the same number as his assists — and set the tone with a scorching offensive display: 56.2% shooting, 16 3s at a 44.4% clip and 31 assists that nearly equaled Denver’s 33 total field goals.

OKC also set an NBA postseason record with 87 first-half points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his best playoff performance yet, posting a staggering plus-51 rating — the highest in playoff history — while eight Thunder players scored in double digits.

Despite the lopsided loss, the silver lining for Denver is that the series is only tied 1-1, and it now returns to the altitude advantage of its home court. The team went 3-1 at Ball Arena in the first round, including a commanding 120-101 win in Game 7 over the Clippers.

However, the Nuggets have cause for concern in Michael Porter Jr., who’s been hampered by a shoulder issue that’s disrupted his shooting mechanics. He’s averaging just 5.0 points and 4.5 rebounds on 16.7% shooting this series, far from the 18.2 points on 50.4% he put up during the regular season.

For OKC to keep the upper hand, it needs to start aggressively, stay disruptive on defense and control the physical tone of the game, just as it did in Game 2. For Denver, its keys will be cutting down on turnovers, getting another big outing from Jokic and crashing the glass to earn more possessions.

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OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets predicted starting lineups

Thunder

G - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G - Jalen Williams | F - Lu Dort| F - Chet Holmgren | C - Isaiah Hartenstein

Nuggets

G - Jamal Murray | G - Christian Braun | F - Michael Porter Jr. | F - Aaron Gordon | C - Nikola Jokic

Editor's note: These are the predicted lineups and could change based on the availability of players.

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OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets betting props

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 32.5 points – Take the over.
• Nikola Jokic O/U 28.5 points – Take the over.
• Russell Westbrook O/U 12.5 points – Take the over.
• Chet Holmgren O/U 15.5 points – Take the over.

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OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets prediction

To compare, oddsmakers had the Thunder favored by 11.5 points in Game 2, and they far exceeded expectations. Friday’s closer spread reflects the home-court edge for Denver and presents OKC with its toughest test of the playoffs so far.

But if the Thunder stick to their game plan, they’re poised to rise to the challenge again.

Our prediction: Thunder win by 14.