Who is most likely to win NBA MVP 2023? Predicting the winner

Boston Celtics v Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid is the favorite to win his first NBA MVP.

The 2023 NBA MVP award will be announced during the playoffs. It has been a hotly contested race all season. The three finalists were announced, and they are all big men: Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and 76ers center Joel Embiid.

Two of the finalists have accounted for the last four MVP awards. Jokic won the award the past two seasons, while Antetokounmpo won in 2019 and 2020.

Embiid has never won the award.

Guards won the four MVP awards before Antetokounmpo and Jokic started the run of big men claiming the honor.

What are the MVP odds?

Most sports books have taken the odds since the votes are in and have been counted. The announcement date has not been announced.

As of March 22, Embiid was the slight favorite at -200. Jokic was hot behind him at +260. Antetokounmpo was third at +250.

Jokic started the season slow but quickly became the favorite to win MVP before a late surge by Embiid. The Nuggets center was as high as -390 in some places to win the award in early March.

MVP award voters often let narratives combine with statistical facts when voting for the winner. There is often voter fatigue where voters do not award the honor to a player because they have already won it recently. LeBron James only won MVP four times. Michael Jordan claimed the prize five times. He won more championships (six) than MVPs.

Many players have won two MVP trophies in a row. However, very few have won three in a row. That does not bode well for two-time reigning MVP Jokic. The last player to win three MVP awards in a row was Larry Bird for the Boston Celtics in 1984-86.

Who will win the 2023 NBA MVP?

Embiid will likely pick up his first MVP. Jokic will not break the trend of back-to-back winners failing to win a third in a row.

The Sixers center had a career season. He led the league in scoring with 33.1 points per game. He was also eighth in rebounding at 10.2 per game. He shot a solid 54.8% from the field and went 85.7% from the free-throw line. His field-goal percentage was 20th best in the league.

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