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Rohit Sharma is never far away from scrutiny. No Indian captain ever is, after all.
Discourse in a cricket-frenzy nation can often spiral out of control. It certainly has after the 'saga' of the captaincy shift at the Mumbai Indians (MI), with Hardik Pandya handed the job at Rohit's expense. This when it looked for long that the former would in all likelihood, lead India at the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and the USA this year, only for Rohit to have returned as skipper for the T20I series against Afghanistan earlier this year.
One theory that holds merit is the Indian captain's lackluster returns in the shortest format for a long time. Yes, his last innings saw him smash a sensational unbeaten 121 against the Afghans on a difficult surface in Bengaluru. But he failed to open his account in the first two games of the 3-match series and notwithstanding that or his ton, his runs (or lack thereof) in the IPL and T20Is over the last seven years or so have simply not done justice to his pedigree.
Rohit's selection - and as it turned out, Virat Kohli's - raised eyebrows when they were named for the Afghanistan series. After all, neither played a single game in the format for India after the team's T20 World Cup exit in 2022 until the start of this year.
The focal point in this write-up though, is the Indian captain. There's no bigger crowning glory than lifting the World Cup but if that is to transform into reality in the Caribbean and the USA later this year, his performance with the bat must be of a similar kind.
In the shortest format though, the signs have been as distant as ever.
Rohit Sharma's recent T20 form has courted a lot of discourse
The word 'recent' is subjective. Perspectives can vary and in turn, opinions and conclusions. It's no secret though that Rohit has been a non-performing asset with the bat in the IPL for a good few years now. Since 2017, he has had a 400-plus run season only once (2019) and has crossed the 130-barrier with his strike rate just twice (2018 and 2023).
These numbers have arguably come under greater scrutiny only in the last couple of years or so. Partly because India played back-to-back T20 World Cups in 2021 and 2022, partly also because his middling returns with the bat did not hurt a destructive Mumbai Indians squad that swiftly pocketed three titles across four seasons from 2017 to 2020.
This period has also coincided with the swashbuckling batter reinventing his Test career as an opener, producing two great ODI World Cup campaigns despite contrasting approaches in both and assuming India's captaincy across formats.
Surely, someone who has had the wind of Test cricket as an opener ought to find T20s a lot easier? Especially when he is as gifted and technically compact as Rohit is. A deeper look into one particular aspect reveals one particular aspect where he has struggled in comparison to his fellow Indian peers.
The dot ball percentage factor
Rashid Khan will end his T20 career as one of the greatest bowlers to have graced the format. Decoding his variations remain an arduous task but every time he is quizzed about his game, his mantra is simple: bowl as many dot balls as possible.
It's a reflection of an aspect that can conveniently slip under the radar of the crash-bang-wallop nature of T20s where fours and sixes headline a star act. But unless they come in sufficient quantity - and that ought to be a lot - those dots can come back to haunt you.
This has played a big part in Rohit's middling returns in T20s. A comparison with some of the world's first-choice openers in the format in T20Is from 2021-2023 highlights the same.
The dot ball percentage factor is bound to be higher in the powerplay than outside of it, with packed inner circles and potential swing to counter being primary reasons. Threading the gaps for singles and doubles becomes a challenge in such a scenario.
The number automatically shoots up for each of these players when you consider the same time duration and look exclusively at their powerplay returns. Rohit's dot ball count isn't too dissimilar from the others while the average and strike-rate are healthy ones too.
Progressively though, his strike rate dropped from 150.9 in 11 matches in 2021 to 134.4 in 29 T20Is in 2022, with the dot ball percentage shooting up from 37.7 in to 43.2. The corresponding powerplay numbers: 151.5 in 2021 and 133.3 in 2022, with the dot ball count recorded at 45.6 per cent and 48.5 percent, respectively.
While the sample size of the other Indian openers who have been regularly in the mix post the T20 World Cup 2021 is smaller, it is important to cast an eye over their numbers as well.
Shubman Gill's powerplay returns are worrisome with one big hundred against New Zealand only inflating those numbers, while Ruturaj Gaikwad's powerplay strike-rate has been modest too.
Yashasvi Jaiswal emerges a clear winner but there is more to suggest why Rohit's retuns are worrisome even as the wealth of experience he brings at the top level is undeniably immense. Weighing him against his compatriots in the IPL gives a better answer for the same.
The second factor: progressive numbers in the IPL
Six Indian batters, including Rohit, have been considered for this study. Four of the other five have been in and around contention for that T20 World Cup spot - Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, Ruturaj Gaikwad and Ishan Kishan. It must be noted that Kishan's 2021 numbers should be taken with an asterisk for he opened just four times in that IPL season and never batted inside the powerplay otherwise.
The sixth, Kohli, is expected to bat at 3 for India but has been opening in the IPL in recent years and given his regular presence in the powerplay, it is worth taking a look at his numbers too.
Samples across the last three IPL seasons - 2021 to 2023 - indicate that Gill emerges the winner when it comes to the least dot ball percentage in the powerplay. That number of 40.43 would reduce further if his time at Gujarat Titans (2022 and 2023 alone) are factored in.
Rohit's dot ball percentage in the powerplay across last three seasons reads 47.96, the highest among this lot, followed closely by Jaiswal. But while the former averages 29 at a strike-rate of 128.31 in this phase, Jaiswal's corresponding numbers are 47.26 and 157.55. Between the two, there is a clear winner as far as getting his team off to a flyer is concerned.
Kishan boasts the second best strike-rate in this period (134.51) but in comparison to Jaiswal's number, it is a significant drop. It is important to note that he batted in the middle-order for majority of IPL 2021 where lackluster returns forced Mumbai Indians (MI) to drop him before recalling him as an opener - a role he has been regularly used at ever since.
If these numbers alone don't paint the entire picture, the progressive trend with each subsequent IPL season surely ought to. As far as the overall dot ball percentage goes, Gill and Jaiswal have seen that count reduce considerably from 2021 to 2023.
It's entirely possible that Gill doesn't better his dot ball percentage of 26.6 in what was an all-time great campaign in 2023. But the signs are right for a player whose best is yet to come. Only Kohli had a lower dot ball percentage that season and the difference is minute.
Rohit's dot ball percentage in the powerplay in IPL 2022 was an alarming 54.9. The overall count was worrisome too (52). He bettered those numbers in 2023 but it was comfortably the highest of the six players in consideration - 49.7 per cent in the powerplay and 45.2 per cent in all.
Again, Jaiswal's corresponding numbers in another all-time great campaign aren't too dissimilar. But the returns were starkly different - the southpaw tallied 625 runs averaging 48.08 at a spectacular strike-rate of 163.61 for Rajasthan Royals while Rohit could manage just 332 runs with his average and strike-rate recorded at 20.75 and 132.80, respectively.
When it comes to the difference between dot ball percentages in the powerplay and the overall dot ball percentage, the drop is the least with Rohit again. If the argument to this metric is the possibility of him not playing too many long innings owing to a high-risk approach, his powerplay returns leave plenty to be desired in the first place.
Those numbers don't paint an eye-catching picture even if one wishes to cut Rohit some slack for his high dot ball percentage in the powerplay with that number not too far off Jaiswal's.
But this is in the past. Just cast your mind back to a couple of months ago when Rohit was tearing into bowlers for fun at the ODI World Cup. Surely it's a sign of a redemption in T20s?
Is it though?
Time mix: a key factor in Rohit Sharma's 2023 World Cup success
That Rohit enjoyed a stellar campaign at the ODI World Cup in 2023 is not debatable. He was a candidate for the Player of the Tournament accolade and rightly so as 597 runs at a staggering strike-rate of 125.94 would suggest. For his high-risk approach against the new ball, an average of 54.27 capped off what truly was an incredible campaign.
The Indian captain regularly took the attack to the bowlers with the field restrictions in place and his numbers in the powerplay at the World Cup are nothing short of outstanding. He tallied 401 runs in this phase at a strike-rate of 135.01.
His dot ball percentage in the powerplay at the 2023 World Cup stood at 55.89 per cent but Rohit never let this stat come in the way of his high positive impact in the powerplay. It's a fact that reflects in 46 fours and 24 sixes in this phase in the tournament. Of the 297 deliveries he batted in the powerplay at the World Cup, 70 of them produced a four or a six - that's one every 4.24 deliveries.
It isn't wise to measure performances across formats. Yet if the thought process behind the team throwing its weight behind Rohit ahead of the T20 World Cup has to do with his explosive starts in the powerplay at the ODI World Cup, it is an illusion that needs debunking.
The reason? It boils down to the factor of time mix. Rohit can afford playing more dots in ODIs since he has enough time to make up for a slow start should it be the case. His dot ball percentage is a clear indicator of the 'tap and run' not being a common phenomenon with his game. With a reduced time mix to rely on boundaries alone to leave an impact, the high percentage of dots has told on his T20 returns dwindling.
What can we expect over the next weeks?
It can be convenient to suggest that Gaikwad, Kishan and Gill haven't had the kind of impact India would have wanted of them in the powerplay and hence, there is no harm in going back to Rohit who has a better strike-rate in the first six overs in T20Is.
The factors weighing against him though? Sample size and history. A painstaking innings in the semifinal against England in 2022 summed up Rohit's prolonged struggles in the format. The odd flash of brilliance - such as the Asia Cup knock on a tacky surface against Sri Lanka prior to the marquee event - reiterated just why gifted a player he is but it hasn't become the norm even if he is to be categorized as a high-risk aggressor up top.
He remains the only Indian to have featured in every Men's T20 World Cup campaign but barring the inaugural edition in 2007 and the one in 2014, his returns just haven't been satisfactory. He fared alright in 2021 but by the time he came into his own, India had already kissed their semifinal hopes goodbye for all practical purposes.
It's past reputation and possible hope that he can replicate his ODI World Cup heroics that has landed Rohit another opportunity in T20Is. That too as skipper. One can argue he has nothing left to prove in what has been an illustrious career but if lifting that T20 World Cup is to remain more than a dream alone, he has to show the way with the bat and display a marked improvement on a consistent basis.
You never write great players off and Rohit Sharma is a great player. Few would even think of debating that. You don't want to put it past him to turn things around but recent trends in his T20 graph haven't suggested anything of the kind.
The attention around Rohit ahead of IPL 2024 has been around the transition in captaincy and how things will pan out on that front. There is a belief that it could also unleash the best version of him as a batter but again, you wouldn't want to put it down to being relieved of captaincy but rather, the fact that he has the skill to do it. He has always had it.
Having endured multiple ordinary seasons in the IPL, the time has come for Rohit to deliver an all-timer and set the record straight. No better time to do it than for the MI blues before boarding that plane for the T20 World Cup to lead the Men in Blue and carry the same forward. Will he though?
The next few weeks will give a definitive answer to this.
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